April 17, 2020
Friday
Good morning, Physician Experience.
I have spent a lot of time awake over the last 20+ years. Once you spend enough time working in the middle of the night or early morning hours, you notice that your perspective and outlook change, depending on the hour of the night. My concerns seem far worse between 11 pm and 3 am than other times of the day. This amplification of worry is why I stopped mentally spelunking down internet rabbit holes before bed. (Hidden aliens in government labs seem much more likely at that time of night).
But I couldn't sleep last night. And, like the siren's song calling me to forbidden rocky shores, I found myself reading some of the more "esoteric" theories floating around the interwebs. To be sure, this reading was not a very fruitful endeavor. But it was a good exercise in testing critical thought.
------------
FT data (No change in the presentation)
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Death vs Cases in the U.S.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-deaths?country=USA
Brian forwarded an Atlantic article on the implications of not enough testing availability and how it potentially undermines all of the denominator data in reported percentages and rates. A fair point. Sadly, it seems that counting the deceased and back-calculating a possible infected population, based on presumed mortality percentages (a method described in other articles as well) may be the best way to estimate the actual exposed/infected.
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/us-coronavirus-outbreak-out-control-test-positivity-rate/610132/
I have seen several articles and numerous comments surrounding theories on the origins of coronavirus. Here is a good summary of what is known about the genetic analysis of the virus.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-not-human-made-lab-genetic-analysis-nature
There is still very little data supporting the use of HCQ . Here is another study demonstrating only minimal improvement in a subset of patients.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060558v1
comments
https://twitter.com/PaulSaxMD/status/1250449812471848965
There were some public comments on data from the multi-center Gilead Remdesivir trials. This sparked all sorts of controversy, given that it introduces bias and makes it harder to recruit new patients. As you would imagine, stock prices changed as well. All sorts of good conspiracy talk ensued.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/
Comments
https://twitter.com/kidney_boy/status/1250886429418364928
https://twitter.com/darrenrovell/status/1250967027206012929
Other drugs are being tried, but I strongly suggest a critical eye on any reported data. Hope overwhelms reason way too often.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cytodyns-leronlimab-progressing-well-coronavirus-145102755.html
https://twitter.com/GaetanBurgio/status/1250395808450506752
My favorite bad COVID pun of the day - Washington University (Wash U) Department of Nephrology (in St. Louis) has manufactured its own hand sanitizer. Wash YOU! Clever and practical.
https://twitter.com/HumphreysLab/status/1248316863530098693
https://twitter.com/ADarttIH/status/1250941545349632001
My favorite infographic of the day: Conspiracy edition
https://i.redd.it/lpaal3yhj8t41.png
---Bonus Round - Sharp minds edition
Most of us know Harry Houdini as the famous magician and escape artist, but toward the end of his career, he spent time and energy exposing spiritualists and psychics. He laid the groundwork for future generations of critical thinkers and magicians who expose how tricks work (like Penn and Teller). Interestingly, Houdini lost his friendship with Arthur Conan Doyle as part of his debunking of spiritualists.
Background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Houdini
About exposing a psychic:
https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/53424/houdinis-greatest-trick-debunking-medium-mina-crandon
If you have more time than you want, I strongly suggest you check out Malcom Gladwell's Revisionist History (RH) podcast. We all know Gladwell as the book author and New Yorker writer who does in-depth looks at the interconnectedness of events and ideas (Tipping point, Outliers, etc.) I think he has made the most of podcasting - in depth, lots of first-hand interview data, and lots of compelling topics. I suggest starting with season 2, episode 9 - the move of McDonald's away from beef tallow. It is a remarkable story. I don't always agree with his conclusions, but he knows how to think and tell a story.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revisionist_History_(podcast)
http://revisionisthistory.com/
clean hands and sharp minds
-Adam
Good morning, Physician Experience.
I have spent a lot of time awake over the last 20+ years. Once you spend enough time working in the middle of the night or early morning hours, you notice that your perspective and outlook change, depending on the hour of the night. My concerns seem far worse between 11 pm and 3 am than other times of the day. This amplification of worry is why I stopped mentally spelunking down internet rabbit holes before bed. (Hidden aliens in government labs seem much more likely at that time of night).
But I couldn't sleep last night. And, like the siren's song calling me to forbidden rocky shores, I found myself reading some of the more "esoteric" theories floating around the interwebs. To be sure, this reading was not a very fruitful endeavor. But it was a good exercise in testing critical thought.
------------
FT data (No change in the presentation)
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Death vs Cases in the U.S.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-deaths?country=USA
Brian forwarded an Atlantic article on the implications of not enough testing availability and how it potentially undermines all of the denominator data in reported percentages and rates. A fair point. Sadly, it seems that counting the deceased and back-calculating a possible infected population, based on presumed mortality percentages (a method described in other articles as well) may be the best way to estimate the actual exposed/infected.
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/us-coronavirus-outbreak-out-control-test-positivity-rate/610132/
I have seen several articles and numerous comments surrounding theories on the origins of coronavirus. Here is a good summary of what is known about the genetic analysis of the virus.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-not-human-made-lab-genetic-analysis-nature
There is still very little data supporting the use of HCQ . Here is another study demonstrating only minimal improvement in a subset of patients.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060558v1
comments
https://twitter.com/PaulSaxMD/status/1250449812471848965
There were some public comments on data from the multi-center Gilead Remdesivir trials. This sparked all sorts of controversy, given that it introduces bias and makes it harder to recruit new patients. As you would imagine, stock prices changed as well. All sorts of good conspiracy talk ensued.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/
Comments
https://twitter.com/kidney_boy/status/1250886429418364928
https://twitter.com/darrenrovell/status/1250967027206012929
Other drugs are being tried, but I strongly suggest a critical eye on any reported data. Hope overwhelms reason way too often.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cytodyns-leronlimab-progressing-well-coronavirus-145102755.html
https://twitter.com/GaetanBurgio/status/1250395808450506752
My favorite bad COVID pun of the day - Washington University (Wash U) Department of Nephrology (in St. Louis) has manufactured its own hand sanitizer. Wash YOU! Clever and practical.
https://twitter.com/HumphreysLab/status/1248316863530098693
https://twitter.com/ADarttIH/status/1250941545349632001
My favorite infographic of the day: Conspiracy edition
https://i.redd.it/lpaal3yhj8t41.png
---Bonus Round - Sharp minds edition
Most of us know Harry Houdini as the famous magician and escape artist, but toward the end of his career, he spent time and energy exposing spiritualists and psychics. He laid the groundwork for future generations of critical thinkers and magicians who expose how tricks work (like Penn and Teller). Interestingly, Houdini lost his friendship with Arthur Conan Doyle as part of his debunking of spiritualists.
Background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Houdini
About exposing a psychic:
https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/53424/houdinis-greatest-trick-debunking-medium-mina-crandon
If you have more time than you want, I strongly suggest you check out Malcom Gladwell's Revisionist History (RH) podcast. We all know Gladwell as the book author and New Yorker writer who does in-depth looks at the interconnectedness of events and ideas (Tipping point, Outliers, etc.) I think he has made the most of podcasting - in depth, lots of first-hand interview data, and lots of compelling topics. I suggest starting with season 2, episode 9 - the move of McDonald's away from beef tallow. It is a remarkable story. I don't always agree with his conclusions, but he knows how to think and tell a story.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revisionist_History_(podcast)
http://revisionisthistory.com/
clean hands and sharp minds
-Adam
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