April 21, 2020
Tuesday
I often think about my perception of time. Not only does time seem to pass faster than when I was a kid. Do you remember being bored for a few hours and feeling like weeks went by versus asking your adult self where an entire day or week went? There are numerous psychologic studies on this phenomenon. Emotion, environment, activity levels, age, and a whole host of other variables, both compress and dilate our perception of duration for both contemporaneous events and previous events.
The last time I was somewhere other than my neighborhood was on March 11. It feels like something to be measured by geologic time scales. And yet, each day is like a race of meetings, data gathering, emails, and tasks. As I watch different reactions to the struggle of being at home, I wonder how time perception, cost-benefit analysis, and boredom drive the range of witnessed behaviors.
----------
FT data (No change in the presentation)
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Death vs. Cases in the US.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-deaths?country=US
remember the reasons for variable daily reporting, look for the trends.
I was looking for state-level data again.
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/26/21193848/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths-tests-by-state
I wonder how much of this variability is due to appropriate quarantining? That is, the earliest hit locals experience the greatest impact, but more rural areas, if locked down, mitigate the peak. Or is the peak delayed? (the same number of cases, just spread out over time.) Real-time epidemiology is highly inaccurate, and interpreting what we are seeing is probably filled with all sorts of bias and error.
Some thoughts from the FT.com graph guy
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1252338551322271744
Trying to preserve an accurate recollection on the passage of time.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/21/999946/coronavirus-instagram-tumblr-journal-diary/
My favorite part of medicine is the endless questioning and hunt for knowledge. It is remarkable how much healthcare depends on communication and mutual education. This has been true for entirety of recorded human history (seriously - read about Roman military medicine in 100AD - lots of shared wisdom across the empire).) I am not alone in this belief.
https://www.wired.com/story/the-covid-19-newsletter-thats-by-doctors-for-doctors/
My bias tends to favor scientists and data driving discussions. I am always curious about how this goes in larger-scale settings. Like countries. Here is a positive review of Germany's Angela Merkel, who is a Ph.D. chemist by training.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/04/angela-merkel-germany-coronavirus-pandemic/610225/
I am troubled by defaulting to the states to solve various aspects of medical supply acquisition. I realize this is not a simple issue but in State vs. State competition for medical resources, I think we all lose. Still, go Governor Hogan (and his wife Yumi) of Maryland for working the Korean connections.
https://twitter.com/GovLarryHogan/status/1252297144754716672
More comments on the Brazillian HCQ study released last week (non-controlled, as you will recall).
https://twitter.com/kidney_boy/status/1252447609412870144
Conclude what you will with the infographic of the day. It is a way to quantify occupation type vs. risk of COVID.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/covid-19-occupational-risk-scores.html
--------- Bonus Round - Interactive visualization edition
Thank some higher power that we decided to have a pandemic in the internet age. Besides Amazon and Netflix, the ability to understand the world has been of great comfort (at least to me). Here are some of the latest finds of note.
Gantt charts gone wild! You can play with the interactive lockdown tracker here:
https://auravision.ai/covid19-lockdown-tracker/
A not real-time map, but one that slices and dices facebook-acquired symptom data, looking at flu and COVID symptoms AND includes hospital referral regions, which is a somewhat more logical way to understand healthcare use patterns
https://covid-survey.dataforgood.fb.com/
More FB data on the lockdown measured by mobility, an approximation of lockdown effectiveness.
https://www.covid19mobility.org/dashboards/facebook-data-for-good/
A real-time look at coronavirus spread - an Rt (effective reproduction rate). I need to explore this one some more, but Rt captures a lot of information all at once, but is probably highly dependent on testing information to validate. If you ignore the meaning of all this, you can appreciate the visualization even more.
https://rt.live/
background http://systrom.com/topic/coronavirus/
Clean hands and sharp minds
-Adam
I often think about my perception of time. Not only does time seem to pass faster than when I was a kid. Do you remember being bored for a few hours and feeling like weeks went by versus asking your adult self where an entire day or week went? There are numerous psychologic studies on this phenomenon. Emotion, environment, activity levels, age, and a whole host of other variables, both compress and dilate our perception of duration for both contemporaneous events and previous events.
The last time I was somewhere other than my neighborhood was on March 11. It feels like something to be measured by geologic time scales. And yet, each day is like a race of meetings, data gathering, emails, and tasks. As I watch different reactions to the struggle of being at home, I wonder how time perception, cost-benefit analysis, and boredom drive the range of witnessed behaviors.
----------
FT data (No change in the presentation)
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Death vs. Cases in the US.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-deaths?country=US
remember the reasons for variable daily reporting, look for the trends.
I was looking for state-level data again.
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/26/21193848/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths-tests-by-state
I wonder how much of this variability is due to appropriate quarantining? That is, the earliest hit locals experience the greatest impact, but more rural areas, if locked down, mitigate the peak. Or is the peak delayed? (the same number of cases, just spread out over time.) Real-time epidemiology is highly inaccurate, and interpreting what we are seeing is probably filled with all sorts of bias and error.
Some thoughts from the FT.com graph guy
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1252338551322271744
Trying to preserve an accurate recollection on the passage of time.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/21/999946/coronavirus-instagram-tumblr-journal-diary/
My favorite part of medicine is the endless questioning and hunt for knowledge. It is remarkable how much healthcare depends on communication and mutual education. This has been true for entirety of recorded human history (seriously - read about Roman military medicine in 100AD - lots of shared wisdom across the empire).) I am not alone in this belief.
https://www.wired.com/story/the-covid-19-newsletter-thats-by-doctors-for-doctors/
My bias tends to favor scientists and data driving discussions. I am always curious about how this goes in larger-scale settings. Like countries. Here is a positive review of Germany's Angela Merkel, who is a Ph.D. chemist by training.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/04/angela-merkel-germany-coronavirus-pandemic/610225/
I am troubled by defaulting to the states to solve various aspects of medical supply acquisition. I realize this is not a simple issue but in State vs. State competition for medical resources, I think we all lose. Still, go Governor Hogan (and his wife Yumi) of Maryland for working the Korean connections.
https://twitter.com/GovLarryHogan/status/1252297144754716672
More comments on the Brazillian HCQ study released last week (non-controlled, as you will recall).
https://twitter.com/kidney_boy/status/1252447609412870144
Conclude what you will with the infographic of the day. It is a way to quantify occupation type vs. risk of COVID.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/covid-19-occupational-risk-scores.html
--------- Bonus Round - Interactive visualization edition
Thank some higher power that we decided to have a pandemic in the internet age. Besides Amazon and Netflix, the ability to understand the world has been of great comfort (at least to me). Here are some of the latest finds of note.
Gantt charts gone wild! You can play with the interactive lockdown tracker here:
https://auravision.ai/covid19-lockdown-tracker/
A not real-time map, but one that slices and dices facebook-acquired symptom data, looking at flu and COVID symptoms AND includes hospital referral regions, which is a somewhat more logical way to understand healthcare use patterns
https://covid-survey.dataforgood.fb.com/
More FB data on the lockdown measured by mobility, an approximation of lockdown effectiveness.
https://www.covid19mobility.org/dashboards/facebook-data-for-good/
A real-time look at coronavirus spread - an Rt (effective reproduction rate). I need to explore this one some more, but Rt captures a lot of information all at once, but is probably highly dependent on testing information to validate. If you ignore the meaning of all this, you can appreciate the visualization even more.
https://rt.live/
background http://systrom.com/topic/coronavirus/
Clean hands and sharp minds
-Adam
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