April 30, 2020
Thursday
(100% alignment with multiple sources)
As we anticipated, data from various trials are starting to emerge. Given the volume of efforts focused on treating COVID, I suspect keeping track of the data that is out there and what it means will get confusing. Be on the lookout for thoughtful analysis. Pay attention to which patients were treated, what the goals of the study were, and how generalizable the data may be. I suspect we are entering a period of logical leaps and hope wrestling with reality.
-----------
Latest data
FT data (No change in the presentation)
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Death vs. Cases in the US.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-deaths?country=US
An estimate of the effective reproduction number by state (not updated daily)
https://rt.live/
What is this analysis about? http://systrom.com/topic/coronavirus/
The FT data guy (https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch) highlighted the year to year death and mortality rates yesterday. Not uplifting, but certainly speaks to the power of understanding through data...
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1255533872042967040?s=20
There was a lot of confusing information released about Remdisivir yesterday.
Dr. Fauci mentioned unpublished data showing a statistically significant shorter duration in time to recovery with Remdisivir.
There was an article from the Chinese study that was cut short.
Lots of data to interpret. The best review I found was from Eric Topol
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1255539949471854592
For the deep-divers in the group, there are a few other RNA-dependent RNA polymerases-inhibitors (RdRp inhibitors, like Remdisivir). I am aware of another trial spinning up -
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biocryst-begins-study-galidesivir-coronavirus-162704836.html
Background on this RdRp and its inhibition:
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/09/science.abb7498
Here is some discussion around the anti-IL-6 agent and how the data emerging speaks to using it in the correct cohort of COVID patients:
https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1254740672395071490
A loyal reader pointed out that irrespective of data, we collectively are only able to sit still so long, per cell phone tracking data.
https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/4/28/21239515/coronavirus-social-distancing-stay-home-state-reopenings?fbclid=IwAR0I22q1iPYV2-luSbV7PGKj94Vnlu4NYP9eDJliy0P8jpjB3qczs0mK2VA
And, we can be safer when moving if we choose to pay attention to our cognitive biases (Thanks for this one, Travis!)
https://lifehacker.com/dont-let-cognitive-biases-cause-you-to-engage-in-risky-1843134696
The actual Lancet article - "Pitfalls of Judgement during the COVID-19 Pandemic."
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30096-7/fulltext#tbl1
Which gets me to my infographic of the day - revisit cognitive biases:
https://lifehacker.com/this-graphic-explains-20-cognitive-biases-that-affect-y-1730901381
More efforts using voice and coughing data to diagnose coronavirus infection. Bonus - read about the over-zealous researchers who didn't check with their legal, compliance, and privacy teams before launch!
https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-labs-diagnose-covid-19-voice-listening-talk-2020-4
Here is an excellent twitter discussion on how real people are tackling confusing testing data. @jack-turban is an asymptomatic physician with a mixed set of results over weeks of COVID testing. This is why we have symptom + time-based criteria backed up by testing. Viral RNA may be present and may replicate via PCR swab collections, even if there is not an "active" infection. I agree with the response that he should mask up and return to life.
https://twitter.com/jack_turban/status/1255491102204977153
My favorite non-COVID article I found in the last 24 hours. Microsoft has decided the battle for space?
https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/24/21234170/microsoft-word-two-spaces-period-error-correction-great-space-debate
And, there is even data driving the losing side - https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/30/17301868/two-spaces-periods-typography-reading-comprehension
---- Bonus Round - Some things I miss edition
I love museums and historical sites. At the moment, they are closed and, frankly, not sure I would go if I could (for the time being). New online exhibits from the British Museum offer less compelling visuals with lots more background data than can fit on the little signs.
http://www.openculture.com/2020/04/the-british-museum-puts-1-9-million-works-of-art-online.html
I miss interacting with strangers in public places to embarrass my children. It is a whole different level to inspire strangers to embarrass themselves for my children's entertainment. I do not have a sidewalk, but if I did, I would totally do this:
http://www.openculture.com/2020/04/a-michigan-family-makes-everyone-passing-their-house-do-monty-python-silly-walks.html
Clean hands and sharp minds, team
-Adam
(100% alignment with multiple sources)
As we anticipated, data from various trials are starting to emerge. Given the volume of efforts focused on treating COVID, I suspect keeping track of the data that is out there and what it means will get confusing. Be on the lookout for thoughtful analysis. Pay attention to which patients were treated, what the goals of the study were, and how generalizable the data may be. I suspect we are entering a period of logical leaps and hope wrestling with reality.
-----------
Latest data
FT data (No change in the presentation)
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Death vs. Cases in the US.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-deaths?country=US
An estimate of the effective reproduction number by state (not updated daily)
https://rt.live/
What is this analysis about? http://systrom.com/topic/coronavirus/
The FT data guy (https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch) highlighted the year to year death and mortality rates yesterday. Not uplifting, but certainly speaks to the power of understanding through data...
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1255533872042967040?s=20
There was a lot of confusing information released about Remdisivir yesterday.
Dr. Fauci mentioned unpublished data showing a statistically significant shorter duration in time to recovery with Remdisivir.
There was an article from the Chinese study that was cut short.
Lots of data to interpret. The best review I found was from Eric Topol
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1255539949471854592
For the deep-divers in the group, there are a few other RNA-dependent RNA polymerases-inhibitors (RdRp inhibitors, like Remdisivir). I am aware of another trial spinning up -
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biocryst-begins-study-galidesivir-coronavirus-162704836.html
Background on this RdRp and its inhibition:
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/09/science.abb7498
Here is some discussion around the anti-IL-6 agent and how the data emerging speaks to using it in the correct cohort of COVID patients:
https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1254740672395071490
A loyal reader pointed out that irrespective of data, we collectively are only able to sit still so long, per cell phone tracking data.
https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/4/28/21239515/coronavirus-social-distancing-stay-home-state-reopenings?fbclid=IwAR0I22q1iPYV2-luSbV7PGKj94Vnlu4NYP9eDJliy0P8jpjB3qczs0mK2VA
And, we can be safer when moving if we choose to pay attention to our cognitive biases (Thanks for this one, Travis!)
https://lifehacker.com/dont-let-cognitive-biases-cause-you-to-engage-in-risky-1843134696
The actual Lancet article - "Pitfalls of Judgement during the COVID-19 Pandemic."
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30096-7/fulltext#tbl1
Which gets me to my infographic of the day - revisit cognitive biases:
https://lifehacker.com/this-graphic-explains-20-cognitive-biases-that-affect-y-1730901381
More efforts using voice and coughing data to diagnose coronavirus infection. Bonus - read about the over-zealous researchers who didn't check with their legal, compliance, and privacy teams before launch!
https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-labs-diagnose-covid-19-voice-listening-talk-2020-4
Here is an excellent twitter discussion on how real people are tackling confusing testing data. @jack-turban is an asymptomatic physician with a mixed set of results over weeks of COVID testing. This is why we have symptom + time-based criteria backed up by testing. Viral RNA may be present and may replicate via PCR swab collections, even if there is not an "active" infection. I agree with the response that he should mask up and return to life.
https://twitter.com/jack_turban/status/1255491102204977153
My favorite non-COVID article I found in the last 24 hours. Microsoft has decided the battle for space?
https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/24/21234170/microsoft-word-two-spaces-period-error-correction-great-space-debate
And, there is even data driving the losing side - https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/30/17301868/two-spaces-periods-typography-reading-comprehension
---- Bonus Round - Some things I miss edition
I love museums and historical sites. At the moment, they are closed and, frankly, not sure I would go if I could (for the time being). New online exhibits from the British Museum offer less compelling visuals with lots more background data than can fit on the little signs.
http://www.openculture.com/2020/04/the-british-museum-puts-1-9-million-works-of-art-online.html
I miss interacting with strangers in public places to embarrass my children. It is a whole different level to inspire strangers to embarrass themselves for my children's entertainment. I do not have a sidewalk, but if I did, I would totally do this:
http://www.openculture.com/2020/04/a-michigan-family-makes-everyone-passing-their-house-do-monty-python-silly-walks.html
Clean hands and sharp minds, team
-Adam
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