Tuesday, April 7, 2020
The last two days have seen a politicization of science the magnitude of which I have never witnessed before. It is not surprising, given the gaps in our knowledge and the desire to have answers. Finding reliable data and knowledge amid the debates over medications, masks, and distancing is painful. When combined with the urgency of problems like voting, managing large groups of people living on boats, or merely keeping some degree of societal harmony, it is easy to walk away from the news altogether. The obligations of being informed, fighting fear and doubt, and facing uncertainty are hard but necessary.
-----
The latest data from FT.
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Graphs are still in the same order.
The HCQ debate rages. The qualifications of those espousing opinions vary as widely as the anecdotal data on efficacy.
https://www.newsweek.com/swedish-hospitals-chloroquine-covid-19-side-effects-1496368
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/06/peter-navarro-fauci-hydroxychloroquine
And anecdotal data abound on other therapies!
https://fortune.com/2020/03/28/coronavirus-treatment-drug-antiviral-favipiravir-avigan-fujifilm/
DO NOT GIVE IN TO THE DARKSIDE. We do not know what works yet. While any individual circumstance may warrant trying a drug or therapy, and the trade-offs may be minimal for any one person, there is still a big difference between data supporting widescale use and one-off attempts at mitigating illness. That is the chaos we see playing out.
It appears that we MAY be altering the pattern of the epidemic in Europe and some of the US states. The IHME numbers were revised yesterday:
https://twitter.com/Atul_Gawande/status/1247300768329281536
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1247243241373786112
BUT these are projections in utilization/need based on current rates of new diagnoses. The ability to test is critical.
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1247215408005951488
What I find interesting is the intense, often negative debate regarding these data. Models are honed over time, as prior predictions can be tested against reality. The degree to which people comment on inaccuracy (and thereby seek to invalidate the entire model) is astounding to me. These models should be used to help figure out how to scale needed resources and the timing of responses. Uncertainty is part of the way this works.
Here is some positive news on the vaccine front. Please note, this is very preliminary.
https://techcrunch.com/2020/04/06/a-second-potential-covid-19-vaccine-backed-by-bill-and-melinda-gates-is-entering-human-testing/
A good overview of testing and testing problems
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615444/covid-19-test-results-faster-commercial-labs-delays-coronavirus/
Undoubtedly, this is the secret sauce for changing behavior. I see a business opportunity for diet control (NOOM drones), smoking cessation (nicoretticopters?), and exercise encouragement.
https://www.commercialdroneprofessional.com/video-italian-mayor-uses-drones-to-scream-profanities-at-residents-ignoring-lockdown/
Unfortunately, this more old school method of behavior shaping turned out to be a hoax.
https://www.kenyans.co.ke/news/51632-truth-behind-viral-social-distance-whipping-video-video
Face Masks seem to be less debated, though I have found some snarky doctor responses on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/DrGolfShirt/status/1246925820070965249
and the free market answers the call again
https://www.lightinthebox.com/en/p/safety-helmet-for-workplace-safety-supplies-dust-proof-0-165-kg_p7942400.html
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Bonus Round
While Isaac Newton is, what I would call, 1st tier famous, this bit of trivia about him is not.
https://www.brainpickings.org/2020/04/06/newton-plague/
In my wanderings through the golden age of Islam, I have also rediscovered another physician-philosopher, Moses Maimonides. Well known for his religious writings on Judaism, he was a busy court physician with a wide range of interests. Both the breadth and depth of his works are remarkable. And, as is typical of me, I am struck by the thoughts he expressed regarding healthcare in the late 12th Century.
background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maimonides
An accessible piece on his medical views
https://fn.bmj.com/content/79/3/F227
Clean hands and sharp minds, team.
-AW
The last two days have seen a politicization of science the magnitude of which I have never witnessed before. It is not surprising, given the gaps in our knowledge and the desire to have answers. Finding reliable data and knowledge amid the debates over medications, masks, and distancing is painful. When combined with the urgency of problems like voting, managing large groups of people living on boats, or merely keeping some degree of societal harmony, it is easy to walk away from the news altogether. The obligations of being informed, fighting fear and doubt, and facing uncertainty are hard but necessary.
-----
The latest data from FT.
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Graphs are still in the same order.
The HCQ debate rages. The qualifications of those espousing opinions vary as widely as the anecdotal data on efficacy.
https://www.newsweek.com/swedish-hospitals-chloroquine-covid-19-side-effects-1496368
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/06/peter-navarro-fauci-hydroxychloroquine
And anecdotal data abound on other therapies!
https://fortune.com/2020/03/28/coronavirus-treatment-drug-antiviral-favipiravir-avigan-fujifilm/
DO NOT GIVE IN TO THE DARKSIDE. We do not know what works yet. While any individual circumstance may warrant trying a drug or therapy, and the trade-offs may be minimal for any one person, there is still a big difference between data supporting widescale use and one-off attempts at mitigating illness. That is the chaos we see playing out.
It appears that we MAY be altering the pattern of the epidemic in Europe and some of the US states. The IHME numbers were revised yesterday:
https://twitter.com/Atul_Gawande/status/1247300768329281536
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1247243241373786112
BUT these are projections in utilization/need based on current rates of new diagnoses. The ability to test is critical.
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1247215408005951488
What I find interesting is the intense, often negative debate regarding these data. Models are honed over time, as prior predictions can be tested against reality. The degree to which people comment on inaccuracy (and thereby seek to invalidate the entire model) is astounding to me. These models should be used to help figure out how to scale needed resources and the timing of responses. Uncertainty is part of the way this works.
Here is some positive news on the vaccine front. Please note, this is very preliminary.
https://techcrunch.com/2020/04/06/a-second-potential-covid-19-vaccine-backed-by-bill-and-melinda-gates-is-entering-human-testing/
A good overview of testing and testing problems
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615444/covid-19-test-results-faster-commercial-labs-delays-coronavirus/
Undoubtedly, this is the secret sauce for changing behavior. I see a business opportunity for diet control (NOOM drones), smoking cessation (nicoretticopters?), and exercise encouragement.
https://www.commercialdroneprofessional.com/video-italian-mayor-uses-drones-to-scream-profanities-at-residents-ignoring-lockdown/
Unfortunately, this more old school method of behavior shaping turned out to be a hoax.
https://www.kenyans.co.ke/news/51632-truth-behind-viral-social-distance-whipping-video-video
Face Masks seem to be less debated, though I have found some snarky doctor responses on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/DrGolfShirt/status/1246925820070965249
and the free market answers the call again
https://www.lightinthebox.com/en/p/safety-helmet-for-workplace-safety-supplies-dust-proof-0-165-kg_p7942400.html
-----
Bonus Round
While Isaac Newton is, what I would call, 1st tier famous, this bit of trivia about him is not.
https://www.brainpickings.org/2020/04/06/newton-plague/
In my wanderings through the golden age of Islam, I have also rediscovered another physician-philosopher, Moses Maimonides. Well known for his religious writings on Judaism, he was a busy court physician with a wide range of interests. Both the breadth and depth of his works are remarkable. And, as is typical of me, I am struck by the thoughts he expressed regarding healthcare in the late 12th Century.
background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maimonides
An accessible piece on his medical views
https://fn.bmj.com/content/79/3/F227
Clean hands and sharp minds, team.
-AW
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