Happy Saturday. April 4, 2020
Leadership is on my mind this morning: the responsibility, the opportunity, and the potential for unintended consequences. I have found that humans tend to hear what they want to hear, often looking for reasons to act on selfish or base instincts. Humans are social creatures; In times of turmoil, remembering that we all are a model for someone is critical. And ensuring that we do our best to think - attempting to understand our biases and avoid logical fallacies is more crucial than ever.
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Today the FT has both death and 7-day avg new case rates.
We are still a few weeks away from surging in many communities, but I am, again, struck by how consistent the patterns are between countries.
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Here is an article on the science (or lack thereof) behind forecasting the duration of the epidemic.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/best-case-and-worst-case-coronavirus-forecasts-are-very-far-apart/
and an earlier article on the problems of estimating the magnitude of viral impact
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-so-freaking-hard-to-make-a-good-covid-19-model/
The increased interest in recommendations around masks has launched a bevy of discussion on the heartiness of the virus:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/how-long-coronavirus-lives-in-air_l_5e873e03c5b6a9491835668b?ncid=APPLENEWS00001
https://twitter.com/MackayIM/status/1246307384391155712
https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-disinfectant-cleaning-guide/#intcid=recommendations_wired-homepage-right-rail-popular_e0ff5973-546f-4f19-86de-b997dae344fa_popular4-1
The mask issue has also sparked a ton of armchair data analysts.
https://twitter.com/jljcolorado/status/1245825447369166848
Adam's editorial on the intellectual morass of this topic:
As the prevalence of COVID increases, the likelihood of asymptomatic spread increases. Any face covering will probably reduce this spread, to some degree, from infected patients. HOWEVER, the possibility of a non-infected person encountering aerosolized virus is highly dependent on your proximity to an infected person AND the duration of that proximity AND the environmental conditions (outdoors vs. enclosed space). It appears that surface spread is still the most common means of transmission. It is critical to emphasize that distancing, hand washing, and minimizing unnecessary face to face interactions are probably more significant. (And, these activities are ideally backed by a strong effort at mass testing and isolating identified positive patients and contacts of those positive patients.) Masks may be helpful; they may remind everyone to take this seriously; they may offer some protection against the spread from asymptomatic patients. Still, they may also confer a false sense of security and make us touch our face more. It will be interesting to see what, if anything, can be learned from this uncontrolled mass experiment.
Here is my favorite data analysis on this topic from the last 24 hours
https://twitter.com/ceptional/status/1246372208168980481
which reminds me of this
https://pastafarians.org.au/pastafarianism/pirates-and-global-warming/
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Basta! On to the bonus round - Arts and Humanities Saturday.
I love infographics. So do other people. Props to infographogrophers (can I make this word?) from before the digital age!
https://publicdomainreview.org/essay/emma-willard-maps-of-time
I love words. One of my favorite poet/musicians is Mike Doughty, who is, essentially, a spoken word poet backed by music. I strongly advocate for spending some time listening to Mike. Listen to the way he uses sound and meaning. IMHO, he is a vocal abstract painter.
https://www.youtube.com/user/heyitsmemikedoughty
Alexis de Tocqueville was a French historian, politician, and author most famous for Democracy in America, reflections on his travels through the 1830's United States. His writing is a seminal work in understanding the history of a developing United States around the +50 year mark. (You undoubtedly encountered him in some history or poly sci class if you went to school in the U.S.). I have never considered him as a philosopher, per se. But today, I found an article looking at his work through a different lens and making his words feel very, very timely.
https://www.brainpickings.org/2020/04/01/tocqueville-democracy-in-america-stillness/
Background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexis_de_Tocqueville
#CleanHands
#SharpMinds
#ThanksChristinaAiChangforremindingmetousehashtagssinceIamoldandoutoftouch
-Adam
Leadership is on my mind this morning: the responsibility, the opportunity, and the potential for unintended consequences. I have found that humans tend to hear what they want to hear, often looking for reasons to act on selfish or base instincts. Humans are social creatures; In times of turmoil, remembering that we all are a model for someone is critical. And ensuring that we do our best to think - attempting to understand our biases and avoid logical fallacies is more crucial than ever.
-----------------
Today the FT has both death and 7-day avg new case rates.
We are still a few weeks away from surging in many communities, but I am, again, struck by how consistent the patterns are between countries.
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Here is an article on the science (or lack thereof) behind forecasting the duration of the epidemic.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/best-case-and-worst-case-coronavirus-forecasts-are-very-far-apart/
and an earlier article on the problems of estimating the magnitude of viral impact
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-so-freaking-hard-to-make-a-good-covid-19-model/
The increased interest in recommendations around masks has launched a bevy of discussion on the heartiness of the virus:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/how-long-coronavirus-lives-in-air_l_5e873e03c5b6a9491835668b?ncid=APPLENEWS00001
https://twitter.com/MackayIM/status/1246307384391155712
https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-disinfectant-cleaning-guide/#intcid=recommendations_wired-homepage-right-rail-popular_e0ff5973-546f-4f19-86de-b997dae344fa_popular4-1
The mask issue has also sparked a ton of armchair data analysts.
https://twitter.com/jljcolorado/status/1245825447369166848
Adam's editorial on the intellectual morass of this topic:
As the prevalence of COVID increases, the likelihood of asymptomatic spread increases. Any face covering will probably reduce this spread, to some degree, from infected patients. HOWEVER, the possibility of a non-infected person encountering aerosolized virus is highly dependent on your proximity to an infected person AND the duration of that proximity AND the environmental conditions (outdoors vs. enclosed space). It appears that surface spread is still the most common means of transmission. It is critical to emphasize that distancing, hand washing, and minimizing unnecessary face to face interactions are probably more significant. (And, these activities are ideally backed by a strong effort at mass testing and isolating identified positive patients and contacts of those positive patients.) Masks may be helpful; they may remind everyone to take this seriously; they may offer some protection against the spread from asymptomatic patients. Still, they may also confer a false sense of security and make us touch our face more. It will be interesting to see what, if anything, can be learned from this uncontrolled mass experiment.
Here is my favorite data analysis on this topic from the last 24 hours
https://twitter.com/ceptional/status/1246372208168980481
which reminds me of this
https://pastafarians.org.au/pastafarianism/pirates-and-global-warming/
-----
Basta! On to the bonus round - Arts and Humanities Saturday.
I love infographics. So do other people. Props to infographogrophers (can I make this word?) from before the digital age!
https://publicdomainreview.org/essay/emma-willard-maps-of-time
I love words. One of my favorite poet/musicians is Mike Doughty, who is, essentially, a spoken word poet backed by music. I strongly advocate for spending some time listening to Mike. Listen to the way he uses sound and meaning. IMHO, he is a vocal abstract painter.
https://www.youtube.com/user/heyitsmemikedoughty
Alexis de Tocqueville was a French historian, politician, and author most famous for Democracy in America, reflections on his travels through the 1830's United States. His writing is a seminal work in understanding the history of a developing United States around the +50 year mark. (You undoubtedly encountered him in some history or poly sci class if you went to school in the U.S.). I have never considered him as a philosopher, per se. But today, I found an article looking at his work through a different lens and making his words feel very, very timely.
https://www.brainpickings.org/2020/04/01/tocqueville-democracy-in-america-stillness/
Background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexis_de_Tocqueville
#CleanHands
#SharpMinds
#ThanksChristinaAiChangforremindingmetousehashtagssinceIamoldandoutoftouch
-Adam
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