Monday, May the 4th be with you.
May 4, 2020
May the 4th brings a mix of emotions. How much time should I spend focused on Star Wars? What is appropriate for a 45-year-old guy? What could I do with the time otherwise? Isn't it just another consumer money grab "holiday"? But I enjoy it! Clearly, there are no right answers here.
So let's focus on data. The topics of conversation are evolving (and revolving). Articles from the last two days cover a wide range - the practical steps needed around re-opening, further contextualizing the impact of the epidemic, and the meaning of tests with less than ideal sensitivity and specificity.
--------
Latest data
FT data (No change in the presentation)
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Death vs. Cases in the US.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-deaths?country=US
An estimate of the effective reproduction number by state (not updated daily)
https://rt.live/
What is this analysis about? http://systrom.com/topic/coronavirus/
The effective reproduction numbers continue to improve. No change in FT data since May 2. And, I would anticipate a bump coming off the weekend, as reporting as day to day variability based on the day of the week.
-----
Wired does it again. Here is a very good article highlighting the personalities and biases behind the data. Another must-read (short) article. Probably doable with your current cup of coffee or tea (depending on when you filled the cup and the time it took you to get to this point in the email). This article is about a "rock star" epidemiologist who worked on the infamous Stanford Facebook recruiting COVID-19 study and how he has become an intellectual pariah amongst some in the medical community.
https://www.wired.com/story/prophet-of-scientific-rigor-and-a-covid-contrarian/
Here is more commentary, this time from a medical student, highlighting the challenges of mask-wearing. I think his points are well-meaning, but the question is, how does one deal with the reality of re-opening? In other words, how can broadly educate about using protective equipment and help people understand the risk of activities in which they are engaging? Tough stuff.
https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/05/do-masks-promote-a-false-sense-of-security.html
As we re-open, there is a newfound interest in mask-making materials. Here is an interesting PR article from Missouri S&T on their engineer's efforts at understanding the material science of fabrics.
https://news.mst.edu/2020/04/environmental-engineers-study-fabrics-materials-for-face-covers/
EHR interoperability has impacted our ability to pool data during this crisis. While there are no surprises in this article, the use case of the pandemic highlights some key reasons standardized data structures and open APIs are laudable goals for those of us the healthcare IT.
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/929841?nlid=135359_5653&src=wnl_newsalrt_daily_200502_MSCPEDIT&uac=68144FY&impID=2367874&faf=1#vp_1
The possibility of coronavirus reinfection is still murky to me (at least). I had read reports out of South Korea about symptomatic re-infected patients. It appears that Korean data from early April are now thought to be false-positives, per the Korean CDC. I don't think we understand the full range of immune response, either in terms of variation of immunity or duration. Still, I suspect the likelihood of symptomatic reinfection is low (especially early on). I am sure there is a lot more to come on this issue, as it impacts the interpretation of testing and, ultimately, vaccine success.
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/medical-advances/495646-no-evidence-of-coronavirus-reinfections-south=
Back to Political Cognition. Here is an article about surveys correlating political views, belief in prevailing conspiracy theories, and considering what actions these beliefs may dictate. Another intellectual path to wander down where large sample sizes are a byproduct of a global pandemic.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/what-can-coronavirus-tell-us-about-conspiracy-theories/610894/
Nothing makes me feel worse than the cultural bias imparted by knowing ONLY English animal noises. Broaden your minds, dear friends - the infographic of the day:
https://i.redd.it/21j28jhb2qw41.jpg
Ko-Ki-Oh! says the Korean cockerel (who has a feeling coronavirus reinfection is likely not a thing!) "Mjau," agrees the Swedish cat.
Since some days feel like they are moving in geologic time scales, this felt oddly apropos—Infographic (well, more like the old map) of the day #2.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/incredible-map-of-pangea-with-modern-borders/
------Bonus Round - Data and sources edition
One of the more interesting and vexing aspects of historical reading is the inevitable compression of ideas and events to create a simplified version of the story.
Boudica is a well-known British folk hero. She led a Celtic uprising against Roman forces in Britain around 60 AD. Plays, poorly executed cable TV and direct-to-video movies, and statues to her evoke the "freedom fighter overcoming the evil empire" motif. But, a bit of digging illuminates a number of interesting aspects to the story:
-As usual, there are only two sources from the time, one of which may have copied the other. Tacitus and Cassius Dio are the chroniclers of this part of Roman history.
-The complex politics of Celtic/Roman Britain make the story potentially far less simple than the "freedom fighter" story.
-Human history is messy, and when cultures clash, the "nation" with deeper supply lines, technology, and economic resources tends to win.
Here is an entertaining and well-sourced review of Boudica story: https://museumhack.com/queen-boudica/
Background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boudica
On the other hand, there is no limit to the detailed documentation and data that can be accumulated about any number of subjects, if one takes the time. I offer, as a comparison to the scant amount of data on Boudica, the well-documented topic of "The Expression of Emotion in Pigeons." Seriously. See what the printing press and mass publishing have wrought? Detailed data everywhere and about anything. It is unclear if the author explored how the interpretation of pigeon calls varied based on country of origin (see infographic #1 -- the articles were written in 1909-1911, so cultural bias was less focused on, I imagine).
https://publicdomainreview.org/collection/emotion-in-the-pigeons
Clean Hands and Sharp Minds, team
-AW
May the 4th brings a mix of emotions. How much time should I spend focused on Star Wars? What is appropriate for a 45-year-old guy? What could I do with the time otherwise? Isn't it just another consumer money grab "holiday"? But I enjoy it! Clearly, there are no right answers here.
So let's focus on data. The topics of conversation are evolving (and revolving). Articles from the last two days cover a wide range - the practical steps needed around re-opening, further contextualizing the impact of the epidemic, and the meaning of tests with less than ideal sensitivity and specificity.
--------
Latest data
FT data (No change in the presentation)
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Death vs. Cases in the US.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-deaths?country=US
An estimate of the effective reproduction number by state (not updated daily)
https://rt.live/
What is this analysis about? http://systrom.com/topic/coronavirus/
The effective reproduction numbers continue to improve. No change in FT data since May 2. And, I would anticipate a bump coming off the weekend, as reporting as day to day variability based on the day of the week.
-----
Wired does it again. Here is a very good article highlighting the personalities and biases behind the data. Another must-read (short) article. Probably doable with your current cup of coffee or tea (depending on when you filled the cup and the time it took you to get to this point in the email). This article is about a "rock star" epidemiologist who worked on the infamous Stanford Facebook recruiting COVID-19 study and how he has become an intellectual pariah amongst some in the medical community.
https://www.wired.com/story/prophet-of-scientific-rigor-and-a-covid-contrarian/
Here is more commentary, this time from a medical student, highlighting the challenges of mask-wearing. I think his points are well-meaning, but the question is, how does one deal with the reality of re-opening? In other words, how can broadly educate about using protective equipment and help people understand the risk of activities in which they are engaging? Tough stuff.
https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/05/do-masks-promote-a-false-sense-of-security.html
As we re-open, there is a newfound interest in mask-making materials. Here is an interesting PR article from Missouri S&T on their engineer's efforts at understanding the material science of fabrics.
https://news.mst.edu/2020/04/environmental-engineers-study-fabrics-materials-for-face-covers/
EHR interoperability has impacted our ability to pool data during this crisis. While there are no surprises in this article, the use case of the pandemic highlights some key reasons standardized data structures and open APIs are laudable goals for those of us the healthcare IT.
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/929841?nlid=135359_5653&src=wnl_newsalrt_daily_200502_MSCPEDIT&uac=68144FY&impID=2367874&faf=1#vp_1
The possibility of coronavirus reinfection is still murky to me (at least). I had read reports out of South Korea about symptomatic re-infected patients. It appears that Korean data from early April are now thought to be false-positives, per the Korean CDC. I don't think we understand the full range of immune response, either in terms of variation of immunity or duration. Still, I suspect the likelihood of symptomatic reinfection is low (especially early on). I am sure there is a lot more to come on this issue, as it impacts the interpretation of testing and, ultimately, vaccine success.
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/medical-advances/495646-no-evidence-of-coronavirus-reinfections-south=
Back to Political Cognition. Here is an article about surveys correlating political views, belief in prevailing conspiracy theories, and considering what actions these beliefs may dictate. Another intellectual path to wander down where large sample sizes are a byproduct of a global pandemic.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/what-can-coronavirus-tell-us-about-conspiracy-theories/610894/
Nothing makes me feel worse than the cultural bias imparted by knowing ONLY English animal noises. Broaden your minds, dear friends - the infographic of the day:
https://i.redd.it/21j28jhb2qw41.jpg
Ko-Ki-Oh! says the Korean cockerel (who has a feeling coronavirus reinfection is likely not a thing!) "Mjau," agrees the Swedish cat.
Since some days feel like they are moving in geologic time scales, this felt oddly apropos—Infographic (well, more like the old map) of the day #2.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/incredible-map-of-pangea-with-modern-borders/
------Bonus Round - Data and sources edition
One of the more interesting and vexing aspects of historical reading is the inevitable compression of ideas and events to create a simplified version of the story.
Boudica is a well-known British folk hero. She led a Celtic uprising against Roman forces in Britain around 60 AD. Plays, poorly executed cable TV and direct-to-video movies, and statues to her evoke the "freedom fighter overcoming the evil empire" motif. But, a bit of digging illuminates a number of interesting aspects to the story:
-As usual, there are only two sources from the time, one of which may have copied the other. Tacitus and Cassius Dio are the chroniclers of this part of Roman history.
-The complex politics of Celtic/Roman Britain make the story potentially far less simple than the "freedom fighter" story.
-Human history is messy, and when cultures clash, the "nation" with deeper supply lines, technology, and economic resources tends to win.
Here is an entertaining and well-sourced review of Boudica story: https://museumhack.com/queen-boudica/
Background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boudica
On the other hand, there is no limit to the detailed documentation and data that can be accumulated about any number of subjects, if one takes the time. I offer, as a comparison to the scant amount of data on Boudica, the well-documented topic of "The Expression of Emotion in Pigeons." Seriously. See what the printing press and mass publishing have wrought? Detailed data everywhere and about anything. It is unclear if the author explored how the interpretation of pigeon calls varied based on country of origin (see infographic #1 -- the articles were written in 1909-1911, so cultural bias was less focused on, I imagine).
https://publicdomainreview.org/collection/emotion-in-the-pigeons
Clean Hands and Sharp Minds, team
-AW
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