May 8, 2020
Friday
I have had the pleasure of watching my bird feeder (and the birds) for 1.5 weeks now. So far, there seem to be no significant outbreaks of bird diseases. (But I have not researched typical timelines to infection, so this is not the end of these thoughts for me). I have noted an off-putting inequity related to bird size. Feeding priority seems to be blackbirds > red wing blackbirds > cardinals > wrens > finches. I have a fascinating and subconscious urge to rectify this, which I am fighting. Who knew that a bird feeder, positioned at my office window, would yield so much inane introspection about my feelings on the hierarchy of the natural world. More unintended consequences.
------
Data Visualization Update
State comparisons:
https://public.tableau.com/views/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/2_Corona?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
Rt data
https://public.tableau.com/shared/7FH637YGW?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
FT data is still the best visualization I have found for country comparisons.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths
-----
Several complicated issues came out of the Q&A yesterday. There was a lot of discussion about balancing economic impact vs. public safety and health. These issues are related, and my fear is we do not have public officials adequately addressing the fine line we will be walking in the coming months.
More open = higher chance of generating new cases. A bevy of discussion is out there on this. Here is a sample I found helpful:
Read the thread and the comments— there is a robust discussion on trade-offs and unintended consequences.
https://twitter.com/DrRobDavidson/status/1258472472489451527
Here is why I am concerned about re-opening - very few "grok" the behaviors that are required to make this work (and go Mark Cuban for getting data!)
https://blogmaverick.com/2020/05/07/i-hired-a-team-of-secret-shoppers-to-find-out-how-businesses-were-opening-in-dallas-its-not-good/
Here is what Australia looks like - a worthy model of emulation, I believe.
https://twitter.com/gaetanburgio/status/1258693708293140480?s=12
Here is a reasonable discussion on the trade-offs in detail - albeit from an Australian point of view - but the logic is the same for anywhere.
https://theconversation.com/the-calculus-of-death-shows-the-covid-lock-down-is-clearly-worth-the-cost-137716
Los Angeles is doing many of the things necessary to make opening work.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/07/what-i-learned-taking-free-coronavirus-test-offered-everyone-los-angeles/
Here is a publicly tweeted logical fallacy - https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1258507867000201216
Dr. Gottlieb is looking at aggregated data at the national level and makes comments about the trajectory of the epidemic. Given the variability of the outbreak between communities, it is not reasonable to make these kinds of comments. There is going to be a lot of local variation and vigilance to prevent local flares from spreading quickly. I believe this fits most with the composition/division fallacy:
https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/composition-division
BCG vaccine came up a few weeks ago. The data that was published was hard to interpret since it was all country-level data with lots of bias and assumptions. However, there is now work in Australia to look at BCG more rigorously.
https://theconversation.com/could-bcg-a-100-year-old-vaccine-for-tuberculosis-protect-against-coronavirus-138006
Antibody testing came up on our call yesterday as well. Here is an article on the latest in this type of testing. There are some editorial comments in this article to be sure, the facts around the testing are clear, accurate, and understandable.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/are-we-failing-the-coronavirus-antibody-test
We also discussed the pro-thrombotic and inflammatory nature of COVID-19 infection yesterday.
Front-line clinical opinions are starting to shape what will, I hope, become studies that will then help deliver meaningful data. Here is a snapshot of some views on the use of anticoagulation (accessible with your now well-used Medscape account).
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/930165
Infographic of the day: a systemic categorization of Cheese. Based on my first-hand Whole Foods experience, I find it hard to believe this is comprehensive, but it is useful, nonetheless.
https://i.redd.it/y4qusflstgx41.jpg
I am impressed by the degree to which this celebrity fitness trainer has invested in infographics: https://lucasjamespersonaltraining.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/How-to-get-a-six-pack-infographic-041.png
Bonus Round - unintended consequences edition
Lin Zexu was a Chinese Governor under the Qing Dynasty tasked with suppressing the opium trade.
In 1839, he began overseeing Chinese efforts at stopping the use and sale of opium. Lin was, by many accounts, an honest, intelligent, and decent government official. However, his heavy-handed tactics and lack of strategic appreciation for the role opium played in the international economy led to open warfare with Britain, a far superior military power in the 1830s. This was the first of the two Opium Wars between China, Britain, and other countries. Ultimately, the Opium Wars weakened the Chinese emperor's political position and formalized unequal trading rights against China.
Background https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lin_Zexu
There is a lot of modern Chinese cultural interest in Lin. One article about retellings of his story in modern China
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201911/18/WS5dd1defaa310cf3e35577eaf.html
The 18th Amendment to the US constitution banned alcohol and was a logical endpoint of the temperance movement, stemming from the positivist believes of the 19th century.
Interestingly, the history of enacting prohibition is tightly linked with the Women's Sufferage movement. So, not only were there the apparent consequences of banning alcohol, the prohibition movement managed to bring forward other social reforms with lasting positive consequences.
https://www.pbs.org/kenburns/prohibition/unintended-consequences/
https://time.com/5501680/prohibition-history-feminism-suffrage-metoo/
clean hands and sharp minds
-AW
I have had the pleasure of watching my bird feeder (and the birds) for 1.5 weeks now. So far, there seem to be no significant outbreaks of bird diseases. (But I have not researched typical timelines to infection, so this is not the end of these thoughts for me). I have noted an off-putting inequity related to bird size. Feeding priority seems to be blackbirds > red wing blackbirds > cardinals > wrens > finches. I have a fascinating and subconscious urge to rectify this, which I am fighting. Who knew that a bird feeder, positioned at my office window, would yield so much inane introspection about my feelings on the hierarchy of the natural world. More unintended consequences.
------
Data Visualization Update
State comparisons:
https://public.tableau.com/views/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/2_Corona?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
Rt data
https://public.tableau.com/shared/7FH637YGW?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
FT data is still the best visualization I have found for country comparisons.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths
-----
Several complicated issues came out of the Q&A yesterday. There was a lot of discussion about balancing economic impact vs. public safety and health. These issues are related, and my fear is we do not have public officials adequately addressing the fine line we will be walking in the coming months.
More open = higher chance of generating new cases. A bevy of discussion is out there on this. Here is a sample I found helpful:
Read the thread and the comments— there is a robust discussion on trade-offs and unintended consequences.
https://twitter.com/DrRobDavidson/status/1258472472489451527
Here is why I am concerned about re-opening - very few "grok" the behaviors that are required to make this work (and go Mark Cuban for getting data!)
https://blogmaverick.com/2020/05/07/i-hired-a-team-of-secret-shoppers-to-find-out-how-businesses-were-opening-in-dallas-its-not-good/
Here is what Australia looks like - a worthy model of emulation, I believe.
https://twitter.com/gaetanburgio/status/1258693708293140480?s=12
Here is a reasonable discussion on the trade-offs in detail - albeit from an Australian point of view - but the logic is the same for anywhere.
https://theconversation.com/the-calculus-of-death-shows-the-covid-lock-down-is-clearly-worth-the-cost-137716
Los Angeles is doing many of the things necessary to make opening work.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/07/what-i-learned-taking-free-coronavirus-test-offered-everyone-los-angeles/
Here is a publicly tweeted logical fallacy - https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1258507867000201216
Dr. Gottlieb is looking at aggregated data at the national level and makes comments about the trajectory of the epidemic. Given the variability of the outbreak between communities, it is not reasonable to make these kinds of comments. There is going to be a lot of local variation and vigilance to prevent local flares from spreading quickly. I believe this fits most with the composition/division fallacy:
https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/composition-division
BCG vaccine came up a few weeks ago. The data that was published was hard to interpret since it was all country-level data with lots of bias and assumptions. However, there is now work in Australia to look at BCG more rigorously.
https://theconversation.com/could-bcg-a-100-year-old-vaccine-for-tuberculosis-protect-against-coronavirus-138006
Antibody testing came up on our call yesterday as well. Here is an article on the latest in this type of testing. There are some editorial comments in this article to be sure, the facts around the testing are clear, accurate, and understandable.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/are-we-failing-the-coronavirus-antibody-test
We also discussed the pro-thrombotic and inflammatory nature of COVID-19 infection yesterday.
Front-line clinical opinions are starting to shape what will, I hope, become studies that will then help deliver meaningful data. Here is a snapshot of some views on the use of anticoagulation (accessible with your now well-used Medscape account).
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/930165
Infographic of the day: a systemic categorization of Cheese. Based on my first-hand Whole Foods experience, I find it hard to believe this is comprehensive, but it is useful, nonetheless.
https://i.redd.it/y4qusflstgx41.jpg
I am impressed by the degree to which this celebrity fitness trainer has invested in infographics: https://lucasjamespersonaltraining.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/How-to-get-a-six-pack-infographic-041.png
Bonus Round - unintended consequences edition
Lin Zexu was a Chinese Governor under the Qing Dynasty tasked with suppressing the opium trade.
In 1839, he began overseeing Chinese efforts at stopping the use and sale of opium. Lin was, by many accounts, an honest, intelligent, and decent government official. However, his heavy-handed tactics and lack of strategic appreciation for the role opium played in the international economy led to open warfare with Britain, a far superior military power in the 1830s. This was the first of the two Opium Wars between China, Britain, and other countries. Ultimately, the Opium Wars weakened the Chinese emperor's political position and formalized unequal trading rights against China.
Background https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lin_Zexu
There is a lot of modern Chinese cultural interest in Lin. One article about retellings of his story in modern China
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201911/18/WS5dd1defaa310cf3e35577eaf.html
The 18th Amendment to the US constitution banned alcohol and was a logical endpoint of the temperance movement, stemming from the positivist believes of the 19th century.
Interestingly, the history of enacting prohibition is tightly linked with the Women's Sufferage movement. So, not only were there the apparent consequences of banning alcohol, the prohibition movement managed to bring forward other social reforms with lasting positive consequences.
https://www.pbs.org/kenburns/prohibition/unintended-consequences/
https://time.com/5501680/prohibition-history-feminism-suffrage-metoo/
clean hands and sharp minds
-AW
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