May 9, 2020
Saturday
I received several comments about my reflections on the birds yesterday. The comments made me remember that birds are just tiny dinosaurs. Whatever I feel about their sized-based pecking order, I would be eaten if they were bigger than me. As disturbing as that notion is, it is devoid of emotion or a purpose more significant than being a source of sustenance. Just like what the coronavirus is doing is not a war or an invasion or even an enemy. It is a virus, fulfilling its teleological role to be a virus. It is comforting, motivating, and psychologically reasonable to demonize an enemy, speak about the pandemic in terms of war, and wrap our struggles in evocative vocabulary. But, don't let the words distract you - the only way out of this is through clear thought and consistent action. To be sure, we have thought, coordinated effort, and the ability to make stuff on our side. Take that virus; we have opposable thumbs and PCR analyzers!
------------
Data Visualization Update
State comparisons:
https://public.tableau.com/views/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/2_Corona?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
Rt data
https://public.tableau.com/shared/7FH637YGW?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
FT data is still the best visualization I have found for country comparisons.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths
-----
I love the diversity of people contributing to the understanding of the pandemic. I don't often read about Canadian sports (much less American sports). Nevertheless, I found an article about the work a hockey analyst by-day is doing to compare the predictive models of the COVID epidemic.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/hockey-analyst-helping-experts-fight-covid-19/
Here is his website. It is an interactive version of something like the NOAA website that compares potential hurricane tracks.
https://www.covid-projections.com/
Dr. Gottlieb is back on twitter with some thoughts on the economy, virus, and reopening. I mention this to share when he says something not based on a logical fallacy. Post-thread comments are useful, as well.
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1258747991088824321
Dr. Burgio offers this outstanding twitter-based analysis of a Lancet article on using Kaletra and Interferon-beta in COVID patients. The analysis is spot-on. And, even though the data would point to this combination of medications being helpful, the discussion around how to best use this information and is an excellent example of how hard it is to read journal articles and answer the question, "Now what?"
https://twitter.com/GaetanBurgio/status/1258917558318624769
National Geographic offers this article on the physiology of COVID-19 hypoxia. Considering where we were on this topic a few weeks ago, it is amazing how much has made it to consumer media in such a short time.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/they-do-not-struggle-to-breathe-but-coronavirus-starves-them-of-oxygen-cvd/
I am sorry to intrude on your Saturday with this. But all the mask talk this week reminds me of the importance of viral spread through touching of the face and surfaces. This MythBusters episode came to mind. Watch and wash. It is disconcerting, to say the least.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UbQ9Kl9CqUU
Hmm. https://twitter.com/kidney_boy/status/1259083283461259266?s=20
Someone wrote a paper that simulated control groups. That is novel.
https://twitter.com/GermHunterMD/status/1258767558775197696?s=20
And some less overt sources of bias as well.
https://twitter.com/Miano81/status/1258817025998274561
Not the infographic of the day
My wife and I have been using a local grocery delivery service in the last few weeks. We had a perfect melon. Here is the resulting conversation:
Me: Do you think the melon picker is really skilled or we just got lucky?
Wife: Well, they are picking produce for lots of people. Probably want to avoid rotten melons, but who knows about their expertise.
Me: Do you think there is any science to picking melons? Like data?
Wife: Stop.
Internet to the rescue! I found someone that applied some intellectual rigor to the "traditional" color/sound/etc.-based watermelon selection methods. This is a topic in dire need of more research. The main purpose of said research would be to give me the skills to project to others that I have some expertise when I must select melons at the store. ("Oh, look he really knows what he is doing!" they will think). And, of course, we need to develop no-touch melon selection criteria. I don't want my watermelon to be a vector for a virus! iPhone-based camera scanning? Sterile ultrasound probes for melon water content (an analog to the tapping method)? Maybe pre-certified melons by a third-party melon rating agency? Maybe keep it old-school with a reflex hammer and a stethoscope?
https://stacylynharris.com/the-truth-on-wives-tales-myths-and-traditions-to-a-ripe-watermelon/
Bonus Round - What's cooler than dinosaurs edition?
When my kids were little and into dinosaurs, I tried to get them to be interested in more than just big lizards - like mammalian megafauna. Their size, appearance, and relative lack of popularity all appealed to me. And, many museums do an excellent job of illustrating evolution through animals like hyracotherium, an early ancestor of the horse. In retrospect, I was more into than my kids (they don't sell playsets with these animals in giftshops), I am still struck by what I learned.
Biggest: Paraceratherium were ancestors of the rhinos living in what is now Asia 20-30 million years ago. You can stand under a skeleton in many natural history museums.
https://www.tumblr.com/tagged/indricotherium
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraceratherium
Scary: Smilodons were large, saber-tooth cats. They had giant forepaws to hold down prey while the ripped open the blood vessels of the neck with their big teeth. They died out about 10,000 years ago from North and South America, which means early humans could have interacted with them (yikes!) and may have hunted or competed for resources with them. Wrap your mind around this: someone's ancestor, from 350 generations ago, could have shared first-hand observations of these big cats.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smilodon
https://ucmp.berkeley.edu/mammal/carnivora/sabretooth.html
https://www.newdinosaurs.com/smilodon/
WTF!?!: Chalicotheres were odd-toed ungulates found throughout the world from about 50 to 1 million years ago. They were herbivores that had a head like a horse and walked like a gorilla, with large forelimbs and short hind legs. They are, undoubtedly, my favorite of the extinct large mammals and would be my first candidate for DNA-based revival of an extinct animal (oh, to see one). It's closest living relative is the tapir.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chalicothere
http://www.eartharchives.org/articles/extinct-hoofed-animals-looked-like-gorilla-horse-hybrids/
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2013/04/species-revival-bringing-back-extinct-animals/
clean hands and sharp minds
-AW
P.S. Taking Sundays off now. More on Monday.
I received several comments about my reflections on the birds yesterday. The comments made me remember that birds are just tiny dinosaurs. Whatever I feel about their sized-based pecking order, I would be eaten if they were bigger than me. As disturbing as that notion is, it is devoid of emotion or a purpose more significant than being a source of sustenance. Just like what the coronavirus is doing is not a war or an invasion or even an enemy. It is a virus, fulfilling its teleological role to be a virus. It is comforting, motivating, and psychologically reasonable to demonize an enemy, speak about the pandemic in terms of war, and wrap our struggles in evocative vocabulary. But, don't let the words distract you - the only way out of this is through clear thought and consistent action. To be sure, we have thought, coordinated effort, and the ability to make stuff on our side. Take that virus; we have opposable thumbs and PCR analyzers!
------------
Data Visualization Update
State comparisons:
https://public.tableau.com/views/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/2_Corona?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
Rt data
https://public.tableau.com/shared/7FH637YGW?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
FT data is still the best visualization I have found for country comparisons.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths
-----
I love the diversity of people contributing to the understanding of the pandemic. I don't often read about Canadian sports (much less American sports). Nevertheless, I found an article about the work a hockey analyst by-day is doing to compare the predictive models of the COVID epidemic.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/hockey-analyst-helping-experts-fight-covid-19/
Here is his website. It is an interactive version of something like the NOAA website that compares potential hurricane tracks.
https://www.covid-projections.com/
Dr. Gottlieb is back on twitter with some thoughts on the economy, virus, and reopening. I mention this to share when he says something not based on a logical fallacy. Post-thread comments are useful, as well.
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1258747991088824321
Dr. Burgio offers this outstanding twitter-based analysis of a Lancet article on using Kaletra and Interferon-beta in COVID patients. The analysis is spot-on. And, even though the data would point to this combination of medications being helpful, the discussion around how to best use this information and is an excellent example of how hard it is to read journal articles and answer the question, "Now what?"
https://twitter.com/GaetanBurgio/status/1258917558318624769
National Geographic offers this article on the physiology of COVID-19 hypoxia. Considering where we were on this topic a few weeks ago, it is amazing how much has made it to consumer media in such a short time.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/they-do-not-struggle-to-breathe-but-coronavirus-starves-them-of-oxygen-cvd/
I am sorry to intrude on your Saturday with this. But all the mask talk this week reminds me of the importance of viral spread through touching of the face and surfaces. This MythBusters episode came to mind. Watch and wash. It is disconcerting, to say the least.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UbQ9Kl9CqUU
Hmm. https://twitter.com/kidney_boy/status/1259083283461259266?s=20
Someone wrote a paper that simulated control groups. That is novel.
https://twitter.com/GermHunterMD/status/1258767558775197696?s=20
And some less overt sources of bias as well.
https://twitter.com/Miano81/status/1258817025998274561
Not the infographic of the day
My wife and I have been using a local grocery delivery service in the last few weeks. We had a perfect melon. Here is the resulting conversation:
Me: Do you think the melon picker is really skilled or we just got lucky?
Wife: Well, they are picking produce for lots of people. Probably want to avoid rotten melons, but who knows about their expertise.
Me: Do you think there is any science to picking melons? Like data?
Wife: Stop.
Internet to the rescue! I found someone that applied some intellectual rigor to the "traditional" color/sound/etc.-based watermelon selection methods. This is a topic in dire need of more research. The main purpose of said research would be to give me the skills to project to others that I have some expertise when I must select melons at the store. ("Oh, look he really knows what he is doing!" they will think). And, of course, we need to develop no-touch melon selection criteria. I don't want my watermelon to be a vector for a virus! iPhone-based camera scanning? Sterile ultrasound probes for melon water content (an analog to the tapping method)? Maybe pre-certified melons by a third-party melon rating agency? Maybe keep it old-school with a reflex hammer and a stethoscope?
https://stacylynharris.com/the-truth-on-wives-tales-myths-and-traditions-to-a-ripe-watermelon/
Bonus Round - What's cooler than dinosaurs edition?
When my kids were little and into dinosaurs, I tried to get them to be interested in more than just big lizards - like mammalian megafauna. Their size, appearance, and relative lack of popularity all appealed to me. And, many museums do an excellent job of illustrating evolution through animals like hyracotherium, an early ancestor of the horse. In retrospect, I was more into than my kids (they don't sell playsets with these animals in giftshops), I am still struck by what I learned.
Biggest: Paraceratherium were ancestors of the rhinos living in what is now Asia 20-30 million years ago. You can stand under a skeleton in many natural history museums.
https://www.tumblr.com/tagged/indricotherium
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraceratherium
Scary: Smilodons were large, saber-tooth cats. They had giant forepaws to hold down prey while the ripped open the blood vessels of the neck with their big teeth. They died out about 10,000 years ago from North and South America, which means early humans could have interacted with them (yikes!) and may have hunted or competed for resources with them. Wrap your mind around this: someone's ancestor, from 350 generations ago, could have shared first-hand observations of these big cats.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smilodon
https://ucmp.berkeley.edu/mammal/carnivora/sabretooth.html
https://www.newdinosaurs.com/smilodon/
WTF!?!: Chalicotheres were odd-toed ungulates found throughout the world from about 50 to 1 million years ago. They were herbivores that had a head like a horse and walked like a gorilla, with large forelimbs and short hind legs. They are, undoubtedly, my favorite of the extinct large mammals and would be my first candidate for DNA-based revival of an extinct animal (oh, to see one). It's closest living relative is the tapir.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chalicothere
http://www.eartharchives.org/articles/extinct-hoofed-animals-looked-like-gorilla-horse-hybrids/
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2013/04/species-revival-bringing-back-extinct-animals/
clean hands and sharp minds
-AW
P.S. Taking Sundays off now. More on Monday.
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