June 10, 2020
Wednesday
Good morning. There has been a flurry of mixed data points from various agencies in the last 24 hours. The World Health Organization further clarified it's 6/8/2020 comment on the frequency of asymptomatic spread. There continue to be outbreaks with increasing numbers of positive cases and hospitalizations in some US regions. CMS released a statement encouraging healthcare facilities to begin conducting face-to-face encounters as soon as possible. It is challenging to interpret all this, much less discern the best course of action in any given scenario. Have thresholds of risk for travel, activities, or gatherings changed? I strongly encourage social distancing, face masks in enclosed spaces, handwashing, and minimizing contact with large crowds. Remember, success looks like we didn't need to do these things. Vaccines and effective mitigating treatments are the best answers.
----------------------
The NY Times has hotspot map is an excellent quick glace of rolling 2-week case change
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
State Details:
https://public.tableau.com/views/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/2_Corona?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
Rt data
https://rt.live/
FT data is still the best visualization I have found for country comparisons.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths
Our world in data has interactive features.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-04-16..&country=USA~GBR~CAN~BRA~AUS~IND~DEU~FRA~ITA~SWE&deathsMetric=true&dailyFreq=true&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7
The tableau data is from The COVID Tracking Project, which compiles and rates state-reported data. Please review https://covidtracking.com/ to understand the quality of the data.
--------
The backtrack on the WHO communication focused on the problems with defining the word asymptomatic. They prefer pre-symptomatic. Either way, I believe they would benefit from a better communications team.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/09/who-comments-asymptomatic-spread-covid-19/
Commentary from Andy Slavitt
https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1270348830958063618
Here is an excellent example of confusion in messaging from the last 24 hours. AZ Department of Health re-issues guidance to hospitals to have COVID surge plan. Twitter and local media report it. AZ Department of Health attempts to clarify that they were re-issuing a prior directive. However, many people comment, and the data would suggest there is a surge in AZ. Confused? Me too. Imagine what the typical citizen of AZ is thinking. Enjoy the twitter discussion:
https://twitter.com/abc15/status/1270127649600368640
some more data https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/10/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html
Some more data on the hotspots:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/09/coronavirus-hospitalizations-rising/
This is a very compelling set of thoughts from an ER/Global Health Doc who has been to war zones, survived Ebola, and is now living on the front lines in NY City.
https://twitter.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1270173868150358020
A loyal reader sent this commentary from the European edition of Politico on the need to keep COVID messaging simple.
https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-scientists-keep-it-simple/
Here is a blog from a retired UK pediatrician that is well-written and thoughtful and hits the essential points on COVID.
https://moxforum.co.uk/blog-2/
I did not anticipate the following words in the same headline when I awoke: Stephen King, Feral Chickens, Plague, New Zealand. (Remember - birds are tiny dinosaurs that would eat us if they could.)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/10/like-a-stephen-king-movie-feral-chickens-return-to-plague-new-zealand-village
Infographics of the day: sandwiches
The encyclopedia of sandwiches.
https://i.redd.it/11d63rvs40451.png
I prefer this more algorithmic approach:
http://www.dudeiwantthat.com/household/decor/the-charted-sandwich-board.asp
And, of course, an entire blog of scanned sandwiches - SCANWICHES.
https://scanwiches.com/
--Bonus Round-- A 21st century perspective on the politics of the 5th century
Alaric I, the Goth, is the man who led the sack of Rome in 410 AD. Goths have not had a positive post-sack reputation. My impression is they are seen as angry barbarians, raping, pillaging, and ushering in the dark ages in Europe. But, history has a funny way of being far more nuanced. I generally enjoy getting into the details of the politics of the time - it explains the why of what happened and puts the thoughts and actions in context. However, I was struck by this article on Alaric - partially framing the Sack of Rome as the final straw in an effort for inclusion and diversity. In 410 AD. Read this for the details of the politics of Rome in the 5th century. Keep a sharp mind on whether you believe Alaric was advocating for his fellow Dacians, against a corrupt Rome, or some other agenda beyond power/revenge/glory.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/07/douglas-boin-alaric-the-goth/612268/
Background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaric_I
Bonus+ I was disappointed to learn that I missed the 2010 Sack of Rome conference. I am curious about what type of group bonding activities accompanied this conference and what kind of vendors were present (and what their swag was).
https://www.academia.edu/3566304/The_Sack_of_Rome_in_410_AD._The_Event_its_Context_and_its_Impact_Proceedings_of_the_Conference_held_at_the_German_Archaeological_Institute_at_Rome_04-06_November_2010_Palilia_28
Clean hands and sharp minds
-AW
Good morning. There has been a flurry of mixed data points from various agencies in the last 24 hours. The World Health Organization further clarified it's 6/8/2020 comment on the frequency of asymptomatic spread. There continue to be outbreaks with increasing numbers of positive cases and hospitalizations in some US regions. CMS released a statement encouraging healthcare facilities to begin conducting face-to-face encounters as soon as possible. It is challenging to interpret all this, much less discern the best course of action in any given scenario. Have thresholds of risk for travel, activities, or gatherings changed? I strongly encourage social distancing, face masks in enclosed spaces, handwashing, and minimizing contact with large crowds. Remember, success looks like we didn't need to do these things. Vaccines and effective mitigating treatments are the best answers.
----------------------
The NY Times has hotspot map is an excellent quick glace of rolling 2-week case change
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
State Details:
https://public.tableau.com/views/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/2_Corona?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
Rt data
https://rt.live/
FT data is still the best visualization I have found for country comparisons.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths
Our world in data has interactive features.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-04-16..&country=USA~GBR~CAN~BRA~AUS~IND~DEU~FRA~ITA~SWE&deathsMetric=true&dailyFreq=true&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7
The tableau data is from The COVID Tracking Project, which compiles and rates state-reported data. Please review https://covidtracking.com/ to understand the quality of the data.
--------
The backtrack on the WHO communication focused on the problems with defining the word asymptomatic. They prefer pre-symptomatic. Either way, I believe they would benefit from a better communications team.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/09/who-comments-asymptomatic-spread-covid-19/
Commentary from Andy Slavitt
https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1270348830958063618
Here is an excellent example of confusion in messaging from the last 24 hours. AZ Department of Health re-issues guidance to hospitals to have COVID surge plan. Twitter and local media report it. AZ Department of Health attempts to clarify that they were re-issuing a prior directive. However, many people comment, and the data would suggest there is a surge in AZ. Confused? Me too. Imagine what the typical citizen of AZ is thinking. Enjoy the twitter discussion:
https://twitter.com/abc15/status/1270127649600368640
some more data https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/10/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html
Some more data on the hotspots:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/09/coronavirus-hospitalizations-rising/
This is a very compelling set of thoughts from an ER/Global Health Doc who has been to war zones, survived Ebola, and is now living on the front lines in NY City.
https://twitter.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1270173868150358020
A loyal reader sent this commentary from the European edition of Politico on the need to keep COVID messaging simple.
https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-scientists-keep-it-simple/
Here is a blog from a retired UK pediatrician that is well-written and thoughtful and hits the essential points on COVID.
https://moxforum.co.uk/blog-2/
I did not anticipate the following words in the same headline when I awoke: Stephen King, Feral Chickens, Plague, New Zealand. (Remember - birds are tiny dinosaurs that would eat us if they could.)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/10/like-a-stephen-king-movie-feral-chickens-return-to-plague-new-zealand-village
Infographics of the day: sandwiches
The encyclopedia of sandwiches.
https://i.redd.it/11d63rvs40451.png
I prefer this more algorithmic approach:
http://www.dudeiwantthat.com/household/decor/the-charted-sandwich-board.asp
And, of course, an entire blog of scanned sandwiches - SCANWICHES.
https://scanwiches.com/
--Bonus Round-- A 21st century perspective on the politics of the 5th century
Alaric I, the Goth, is the man who led the sack of Rome in 410 AD. Goths have not had a positive post-sack reputation. My impression is they are seen as angry barbarians, raping, pillaging, and ushering in the dark ages in Europe. But, history has a funny way of being far more nuanced. I generally enjoy getting into the details of the politics of the time - it explains the why of what happened and puts the thoughts and actions in context. However, I was struck by this article on Alaric - partially framing the Sack of Rome as the final straw in an effort for inclusion and diversity. In 410 AD. Read this for the details of the politics of Rome in the 5th century. Keep a sharp mind on whether you believe Alaric was advocating for his fellow Dacians, against a corrupt Rome, or some other agenda beyond power/revenge/glory.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/07/douglas-boin-alaric-the-goth/612268/
Background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaric_I
Bonus+ I was disappointed to learn that I missed the 2010 Sack of Rome conference. I am curious about what type of group bonding activities accompanied this conference and what kind of vendors were present (and what their swag was).
https://www.academia.edu/3566304/The_Sack_of_Rome_in_410_AD._The_Event_its_Context_and_its_Impact_Proceedings_of_the_Conference_held_at_the_German_Archaeological_Institute_at_Rome_04-06_November_2010_Palilia_28
Clean hands and sharp minds
-AW
Comments
Post a Comment