June 24, 2020
Wednesday
I offer a set of Tweets as my opening today. I am not sure I could offer a more pointed set of observations:
https://twitter.com/MCBazacoPhD/status/1275619941304225793
and
https://twitter.com/Melopinionsonly/status/1275449400261636101
-----Latest data
Our world in data:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-04-16..&country=USA~GBR~CAN~BRA~AUS~IND~DEU~FRA~ITA~SWE&deathsMetric=true&dailyFreq=true&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7
FT data is still the best visualization I have found for country comparisons.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths
The NY Times has hotspot map is an excellent quick glace of rolling 2-week case change
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
State Details:
https://public.tableau.com/views/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/2_Corona?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
Rt data
https://rt.live/
The tableau data is from The COVID Tracking Project, which compiles and rates state-reported data. Please review https://covidtracking.com/ to understand the quality of the data.
----
As a country, we now have to address the concept of increased positive COVID cases due to the spread of the virus vs. increased positive cases due solely to testing. Fortunately, we have many trained professionals capable of articulately enumerating why the recent spike in cases represent increasing rates of viral spread.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/06/22/no-more-testing-doesnt-explain-rise-covid-19-cases-us/
Or, perhaps a graphic to help illustrate:
https://i.redd.it/pk80fvoqap651.jpg
I did find many thoughtful comments by public officials yesterday:
https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/coronavirus-gov-inslee-announces-face-coverings-will-be-mandatory-statewide/XIDPHMLVOJAAREQ5YCL75367PU/
https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1275482358943227904
FT offers some updates and analysis of the excess mortality tracker - deaths greater than expected, presumably due to COVID, by country.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1275512266306265098
https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1275458595593826311
But not all of these deaths are from COVID alone. The lack of medical attention for an existing disease is likely also contributing:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6925e2.htm
Here is a video overview of the rapid debunking and retraction of the HCQ Surgisphere data from a few weeks back - ~ 9 min
https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/how-a-scientific-paper-about-a-promising-covid-19-treatment-was-debunked/
Here is a 50-second YouTube clip mapping the phylogeography of coronavirus. Using RNA data, it shows how the virus spread around the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knxq4u4hu78&feature=youtu.be
I found the website of the source data to be a little clearer, but less animated: https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?c=region
I feel like saying people that report more anxiety are more likely to stockpile toilet paper is evident. Perhaps, I am underestimating our understanding of the toilet paper-hoarding personality archetype.
https://www.mpg.de/14937230/0611-evan-019609-research-links-personality-traits-to-toilet-paper-stockpiling
The current presidents of the American Society of Nephrology (ASN) and the National Kidney Foundation (NKF) published an editorial in The Hill calling for more funding and research into COVID-19's impact on kidney patients.
https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/healthcare/503958-covid-19-and-kidney-disease-a-deadly-intersection-that
Infographics of the day:
Here is a map of contagiousness vs. lethality for many infectious diseases. This graphic came out during the 2014 Ebola epidemic. I suspect coronavirus would be somewhere between SARS and Typhoid. Good thing we have vaccines for things like Mumps, measles, and Whooping Cough (Diptheria). Look at the R0s on those babies! (There is a phrase I never thought I would write.)
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/ng-interactive/2014/oct/15/visualised-how-ebola-compares-to-other-infectious-diseases
Infographic of the day #2 - putting our problems in geologic perspective.
https://i.redd.it/2f0xuj3mbt651.jpg
Two hundred thousand years of homo sapiens in a 4.5 billion year timeline of Earth. Only the last 70,000 of those years represent modern homo sapiens. And, of those 70,000 year of humans doing human things, we have only 5,000 years of recorded history. I am blown away by this notion. Also, March feels like it was 4.5 billion years ago, right?
----Bonus Round - The interconnectedness of ideas
By now, you know my hobby of tracking ideas through time. I have recently been exploring overlaps between the Civil Rights movement and the broader politics of the 20th century. So many connections to find. I thought the documentary 13th did an outstanding job of highlighting some of these:
Angela Davis carries a lot of labels, but what I find most interesting is her use of socialism as a means of eliminating injustice. Just reading her biography on Wikipedia is dizzying. In a time when the word communism was a dog-whistle, she was meeting with a whose who of the 20th century's socialist thinkers and leaders, advocating for racial, political, and economic justice. She is provocative, to say the least. But she has kept up 60 years of dialogue and activism. And, she has inspired a new generation of political leaders, such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angela_Davis
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/legendary-activist-angela-davis-has-overcome-doubters-her-whole-life--and-at-75-shes-still-not-backing-down/2019/02/26/87ffd4c0-3392-11e9-af5b-b51b7ff322e9_story.html
A little less obscure (at least to me) is Fred Hampton, the Chicago Black Panthers leader killed by police in 1968. Of note, he was 21 years old when he assumed leadership of the Black Panthers. He was thoughtful and articulate beyond his age (seriously, watch some videos of him speaking - he was 21!). He was part of the tangled politics of the late 1960's - the assassination of MLK, the 1968 Chicago riots, the increasing polarization of parts of the Black Power movement, and the subsequent attempts to "restore order" by state and federal officials. Hence, the killing of Fred Hampton. A mess of actions and reactions. Prominent in this history is FBI director J Edgar Hoover (the intellectual progeny of Anthony Comstock) and the politics of Nixonian conservatism. So many of these same ideas echo through to today.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2019/12/04/police-raid-that-left-two-black-panthers-dead-shook-chicago-changed-nation/
https://www.wgbh.org/news/politics/2018/11/08/how-nixons-presidency-marked-the-turn-to-more-conservative-politics
Clean hands and sharp minds, team
-Adam
I offer a set of Tweets as my opening today. I am not sure I could offer a more pointed set of observations:
https://twitter.com/MCBazacoPhD/status/1275619941304225793
and
https://twitter.com/Melopinionsonly/status/1275449400261636101
-----Latest data
Our world in data:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-04-16..&country=USA~GBR~CAN~BRA~AUS~IND~DEU~FRA~ITA~SWE&deathsMetric=true&dailyFreq=true&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7
FT data is still the best visualization I have found for country comparisons.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths
The NY Times has hotspot map is an excellent quick glace of rolling 2-week case change
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
State Details:
https://public.tableau.com/views/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/2_Corona?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
Rt data
https://rt.live/
The tableau data is from The COVID Tracking Project, which compiles and rates state-reported data. Please review https://covidtracking.com/ to understand the quality of the data.
----
As a country, we now have to address the concept of increased positive COVID cases due to the spread of the virus vs. increased positive cases due solely to testing. Fortunately, we have many trained professionals capable of articulately enumerating why the recent spike in cases represent increasing rates of viral spread.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/06/22/no-more-testing-doesnt-explain-rise-covid-19-cases-us/
Or, perhaps a graphic to help illustrate:
https://i.redd.it/pk80fvoqap651.jpg
I did find many thoughtful comments by public officials yesterday:
https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/coronavirus-gov-inslee-announces-face-coverings-will-be-mandatory-statewide/XIDPHMLVOJAAREQ5YCL75367PU/
https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1275482358943227904
FT offers some updates and analysis of the excess mortality tracker - deaths greater than expected, presumably due to COVID, by country.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1275512266306265098
https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1275458595593826311
But not all of these deaths are from COVID alone. The lack of medical attention for an existing disease is likely also contributing:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6925e2.htm
Here is a video overview of the rapid debunking and retraction of the HCQ Surgisphere data from a few weeks back - ~ 9 min
https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/how-a-scientific-paper-about-a-promising-covid-19-treatment-was-debunked/
Here is a 50-second YouTube clip mapping the phylogeography of coronavirus. Using RNA data, it shows how the virus spread around the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knxq4u4hu78&feature=youtu.be
I found the website of the source data to be a little clearer, but less animated: https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?c=region
I feel like saying people that report more anxiety are more likely to stockpile toilet paper is evident. Perhaps, I am underestimating our understanding of the toilet paper-hoarding personality archetype.
https://www.mpg.de/14937230/0611-evan-019609-research-links-personality-traits-to-toilet-paper-stockpiling
The current presidents of the American Society of Nephrology (ASN) and the National Kidney Foundation (NKF) published an editorial in The Hill calling for more funding and research into COVID-19's impact on kidney patients.
https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/healthcare/503958-covid-19-and-kidney-disease-a-deadly-intersection-that
Infographics of the day:
Here is a map of contagiousness vs. lethality for many infectious diseases. This graphic came out during the 2014 Ebola epidemic. I suspect coronavirus would be somewhere between SARS and Typhoid. Good thing we have vaccines for things like Mumps, measles, and Whooping Cough (Diptheria). Look at the R0s on those babies! (There is a phrase I never thought I would write.)
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/ng-interactive/2014/oct/15/visualised-how-ebola-compares-to-other-infectious-diseases
Infographic of the day #2 - putting our problems in geologic perspective.
https://i.redd.it/2f0xuj3mbt651.jpg
Two hundred thousand years of homo sapiens in a 4.5 billion year timeline of Earth. Only the last 70,000 of those years represent modern homo sapiens. And, of those 70,000 year of humans doing human things, we have only 5,000 years of recorded history. I am blown away by this notion. Also, March feels like it was 4.5 billion years ago, right?
----Bonus Round - The interconnectedness of ideas
By now, you know my hobby of tracking ideas through time. I have recently been exploring overlaps between the Civil Rights movement and the broader politics of the 20th century. So many connections to find. I thought the documentary 13th did an outstanding job of highlighting some of these:
Angela Davis carries a lot of labels, but what I find most interesting is her use of socialism as a means of eliminating injustice. Just reading her biography on Wikipedia is dizzying. In a time when the word communism was a dog-whistle, she was meeting with a whose who of the 20th century's socialist thinkers and leaders, advocating for racial, political, and economic justice. She is provocative, to say the least. But she has kept up 60 years of dialogue and activism. And, she has inspired a new generation of political leaders, such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angela_Davis
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/legendary-activist-angela-davis-has-overcome-doubters-her-whole-life--and-at-75-shes-still-not-backing-down/2019/02/26/87ffd4c0-3392-11e9-af5b-b51b7ff322e9_story.html
A little less obscure (at least to me) is Fred Hampton, the Chicago Black Panthers leader killed by police in 1968. Of note, he was 21 years old when he assumed leadership of the Black Panthers. He was thoughtful and articulate beyond his age (seriously, watch some videos of him speaking - he was 21!). He was part of the tangled politics of the late 1960's - the assassination of MLK, the 1968 Chicago riots, the increasing polarization of parts of the Black Power movement, and the subsequent attempts to "restore order" by state and federal officials. Hence, the killing of Fred Hampton. A mess of actions and reactions. Prominent in this history is FBI director J Edgar Hoover (the intellectual progeny of Anthony Comstock) and the politics of Nixonian conservatism. So many of these same ideas echo through to today.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2019/12/04/police-raid-that-left-two-black-panthers-dead-shook-chicago-changed-nation/
https://www.wgbh.org/news/politics/2018/11/08/how-nixons-presidency-marked-the-turn-to-more-conservative-politics
Clean hands and sharp minds, team
-Adam
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