Monday, June 8, 2020
Not writing this email on the weekend does not, I have found, equal decompression. This weekend brought so many surprising (in a good way) public and private discussions.
-Public safety based on a non-militarized police force.
-The advantages and disadvantages conferred by our social, economic, and political structures.
-The challenges of supporting public protest in a time of a pandemic.
Operationalizing change is going to be difficult. Accountability, transparency, proportionality, and impartiality seem to be critical concepts for moving forward. I note that these are the same words that guide an understanding of scientific data. Applying them to institutions and public policy is a far messier and painfully necessary endeavor.
-----------------
Latest Data
Numerous countries, New Zealand, Scotland, Northern Ireland, are reporting either no deaths and no new cases. US deaths are down, but case volumes are plateaued.
State comparisons:
https://public.tableau.com/views/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/2_Corona?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
Rt data
https://rt.live/
https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/2_Corona
FT data is still the best visualization I have found for country comparisons.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths
The NY Times has hotspot infographics - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?referringSource=articleShare
Our world in data has interactive features.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-04-16..&country=USA~GBR~CAN~BRA~AUS~IND~DEU~FRA~ITA~SWE&deathsMetric=true&dailyFreq=true&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7
The tableau data is from The COVID Tracking Project, which compiles and rates state-reported data. Please review https://covidtracking.com/ to understand the quality of the data.
----------
Here is tweetorial, of sorts, from an ID physician discussing the problems and failures HCQ. It is a good example of numerous logical fallacies.
https://twitter.com/zchagla/status/1269312897697660930
Here is a review of Tocilizumab, an Interleukin-6 blocker. It appears there are some data implying benefit from a few cohort and retrospective studies. The drug may help in decreasing mortality in ICU patients. This is the kind of data that I typically expect in the medical literature—small steps of accumulating evidence over time.
https://twitter.com/GaetanBurgio/status/1269057445936033792
Here is one of my favorite virologists (do I get to have such a thing?) discussing the types of vaccines being accelerated for development. https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1268717030225690625
and here is an article
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/top-us-scientists-left-out-white-house-selection-covid-19-vaccine-shortlist
One of the more interesting discussions I have engaged in is about the differences between protesting against the coronavirus lockdown vs. against police brutality. To be clear, I believe these are a false equivalency and, at a minimum, carry different risk/reward calculations. (And, ironically, I think the former is protesting the right to harm others, potentially.) Either way, I found this peer-reviewed study on the psychology of compliance with social distancing. The data are based on a self-reported inventory, but it points toward future thoughts on this topic.
https://www.psypost.org/2020/06/psychopathic-traits-linked-to-non-compliance-with-social-distancing-guidelines-amid-the-coronavirus-pandemic-56980
In follow up, here is a twitter discussion on the medical ethics of supporting public protests during a pandemic. You should read the entire thread to get a snapshot of the various arguments in this debate
https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1269572831202828290
Here is an interesting article from The Wichita Eagle in Kansas. It is a very detailed, leaked set of data on specific virus outbreak locations in that state. It is supposed to be classified since there may be a backlash and decreased reporting if this degree of granular information was routinely published. Look at the types of facilities (and the types of occupations and vulnerable people) impacted by the virus. We know this is not an equal-opportunity infection, but here are some hard data as to how job and location-specific outbreaks drive inequality of the impact.
https://www.kansas.com/news/coronavirus/article243305606.html
and here is the kind of higher-level data that then emerges
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/75-of-frontline-workers-in-new-york-the-epicenter-of-coronavirus-are-people-of-color-and-black-americans-are-twice-as-likely-to-die-from-covid-19-2020-06-01
Wired offers an overview of the contact tracing apps. It does raise interesting questions about balancing privacy and public health. https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19-contact-tracing-apple-google/
Infographic [book] of the day - This weekend, I became aware of the infographic book The Handbook of Tyranny. I feel like this comes so naturally to some people; apparently, others have to read the manual.
Here is an example of an included infographic from the book: https://i.redd.it/q9h10s8t2n351.jpg
Book: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/3037785349
--------Bonus Round --- Experiments in alternate public safety
I found this article and podcast last night. I have not listened yet, but the article about police chief Victor Cizanckas - a fascinating example of concrete ways to shape the police force in positive ways. His thoughts on building community trust through psychology, hiring, and nomenclature must have been quite jarring for his officers - err managers and directors. Once again, evolving ideas travel through time. This guy seemed so bright and interested in the topic of community policing. Sadly, he died at age 43 in 1980 in his sleep.
https://99percentinvisible.org/episode/the-blazer-experiment/
Here is a 1977 NY times interview with him
https://www.nytimes.com/1977/03/06/archives/long-island-opinion-interview-taking-a-new-look-at-stamford-police.html
clean hands and sharp minds, team
Adam
Not writing this email on the weekend does not, I have found, equal decompression. This weekend brought so many surprising (in a good way) public and private discussions.
-Public safety based on a non-militarized police force.
-The advantages and disadvantages conferred by our social, economic, and political structures.
-The challenges of supporting public protest in a time of a pandemic.
Operationalizing change is going to be difficult. Accountability, transparency, proportionality, and impartiality seem to be critical concepts for moving forward. I note that these are the same words that guide an understanding of scientific data. Applying them to institutions and public policy is a far messier and painfully necessary endeavor.
-----------------
Latest Data
Numerous countries, New Zealand, Scotland, Northern Ireland, are reporting either no deaths and no new cases. US deaths are down, but case volumes are plateaued.
State comparisons:
https://public.tableau.com/views/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/2_Corona?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
Rt data
https://rt.live/
https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/2_Corona
FT data is still the best visualization I have found for country comparisons.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths
The NY Times has hotspot infographics - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?referringSource=articleShare
Our world in data has interactive features.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-04-16..&country=USA~GBR~CAN~BRA~AUS~IND~DEU~FRA~ITA~SWE&deathsMetric=true&dailyFreq=true&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7
The tableau data is from The COVID Tracking Project, which compiles and rates state-reported data. Please review https://covidtracking.com/ to understand the quality of the data.
----------
Here is tweetorial, of sorts, from an ID physician discussing the problems and failures HCQ. It is a good example of numerous logical fallacies.
https://twitter.com/zchagla/status/1269312897697660930
Here is a review of Tocilizumab, an Interleukin-6 blocker. It appears there are some data implying benefit from a few cohort and retrospective studies. The drug may help in decreasing mortality in ICU patients. This is the kind of data that I typically expect in the medical literature—small steps of accumulating evidence over time.
https://twitter.com/GaetanBurgio/status/1269057445936033792
Here is one of my favorite virologists (do I get to have such a thing?) discussing the types of vaccines being accelerated for development. https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1268717030225690625
and here is an article
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/top-us-scientists-left-out-white-house-selection-covid-19-vaccine-shortlist
One of the more interesting discussions I have engaged in is about the differences between protesting against the coronavirus lockdown vs. against police brutality. To be clear, I believe these are a false equivalency and, at a minimum, carry different risk/reward calculations. (And, ironically, I think the former is protesting the right to harm others, potentially.) Either way, I found this peer-reviewed study on the psychology of compliance with social distancing. The data are based on a self-reported inventory, but it points toward future thoughts on this topic.
https://www.psypost.org/2020/06/psychopathic-traits-linked-to-non-compliance-with-social-distancing-guidelines-amid-the-coronavirus-pandemic-56980
In follow up, here is a twitter discussion on the medical ethics of supporting public protests during a pandemic. You should read the entire thread to get a snapshot of the various arguments in this debate
https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1269572831202828290
Here is an interesting article from The Wichita Eagle in Kansas. It is a very detailed, leaked set of data on specific virus outbreak locations in that state. It is supposed to be classified since there may be a backlash and decreased reporting if this degree of granular information was routinely published. Look at the types of facilities (and the types of occupations and vulnerable people) impacted by the virus. We know this is not an equal-opportunity infection, but here are some hard data as to how job and location-specific outbreaks drive inequality of the impact.
https://www.kansas.com/news/coronavirus/article243305606.html
and here is the kind of higher-level data that then emerges
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/75-of-frontline-workers-in-new-york-the-epicenter-of-coronavirus-are-people-of-color-and-black-americans-are-twice-as-likely-to-die-from-covid-19-2020-06-01
Wired offers an overview of the contact tracing apps. It does raise interesting questions about balancing privacy and public health. https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19-contact-tracing-apple-google/
Infographic [book] of the day - This weekend, I became aware of the infographic book The Handbook of Tyranny. I feel like this comes so naturally to some people; apparently, others have to read the manual.
Here is an example of an included infographic from the book: https://i.redd.it/q9h10s8t2n351.jpg
Book: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/3037785349
--------Bonus Round --- Experiments in alternate public safety
I found this article and podcast last night. I have not listened yet, but the article about police chief Victor Cizanckas - a fascinating example of concrete ways to shape the police force in positive ways. His thoughts on building community trust through psychology, hiring, and nomenclature must have been quite jarring for his officers - err managers and directors. Once again, evolving ideas travel through time. This guy seemed so bright and interested in the topic of community policing. Sadly, he died at age 43 in 1980 in his sleep.
https://99percentinvisible.org/episode/the-blazer-experiment/
Here is a 1977 NY times interview with him
https://www.nytimes.com/1977/03/06/archives/long-island-opinion-interview-taking-a-new-look-at-stamford-police.html
clean hands and sharp minds, team
Adam
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