Tuesday, July 14, 2020
One of my mentors, who got me involved in healthcare policy work in Maryland, taught me the phrase, "Don't take it personally; it's just politics." (I sometimes found it hard to reconcile compromises on issues I felt could be framed around science and fact.) While this notion has stuck with me, it has never felt right. It normalizes an approach to policymaking that is cynical and highly dependent on the preferences of those with the most power. But it is an intellectual fallacy to only lean on science. Policy, in general, forces hard choices between priorities and limited resources. Programs are hard to build and harder to unwind. And the nuance and unknowns of science often don't translate well to the complexities of governing.
Nevertheless, I find the recent, very public struggle between science and policy unsettling. It is remarkable how much those in elected positions of power can wield personal preference. It is crucial to understand how much control we give to those we choose to lead us.
---Latest Data---
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-04-16..&country=USA~GBR~CAN~BRA~AUS~IND~DEU~FRA~ITA~SWE&deathsMetric=true&dailyFreq=true&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7
FT data - the second graph down now has state-level data - I suggest setting it to cases, per million, linear, and add your state to the highlighted list.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths
The NY Times has hotspot map is an excellent quick glace of rolling 2-week case change: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
State Details:
https://public.tableau.com/views/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/2_Corona?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
Rt data: https://rt.live/
COVID risk by US county: https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/
Each of the above sites reports its source data. Please review sources like https://covidtracking.com/ to understand the quality of that data.
------------
I generally appreciate those who attempt to spread truth and transparency. Wendell Potter is one such person. He is a former VP from the health insurance industry who left to become an advocate for patients. His autobiography was published several years ago, but he is very active in the media. Here is his hair-breaking-the-camels-back moment via Twitter: https://twitter.com/wendellpotter/status/1281640759045664768
He stirs up some righteous indignation that feels good, but be aware that insurance contracts, covered procedures/tests, and defined benefits are super complicated. In other words, the story is never as simple as it seems.
Here are some efforts at keeping the evolving recommendations coming from the WHO and CDC in perspective - by a microbiologist from Pitt. The comments are the takeaway - evolving thoughts from science do not mean there is inconsistency or failure. Refinement means communicating a better understanding of the data
https://twitter.com/vscooper/status/1282755989977128963
Here is some righteous indignation about a graph misrepresenting economic recovery. The comments are from John Burn-Murdoch, the Financial Times data visualizer. Thanks to COVID, he is the closest thing I have found to a celebrity data guru. My favorite part is where the author of the graph (James Smith) attempts to defend himself in the thread.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1282943693599707136
Some analyses as to why bars and alcohol may be such problematic sources of coronavirus spread from Alcoholism and Drug Abuse Weekly.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/adaw.32771
Wired covers the problem of identifying actual participants at "COVID parties" and the origins of urban legends. Titillation over reality? I can't imagine. https://www.wired.com/story/the-latest-covid-party-story-gets-a-twist/
Here is an editorial by two employees of an opt-in patient reporting registry. These authors advocate for the use of such registries for mass coronavirus vaccine complications reporting, such that vaccine developers can skip the medical records and related secondary data sources. One wonders what bias this would introduce (like excluding older and less-tech savvy/poorer patients).
https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/14/patient-reported-data-can-help-monitor-the-safety-of-fast-tracked-covid-19-vaccines/
As I have discussed numerous times, history is very unkind to those who end up on the wrong side of truth and science. Unfortunately, this takes years to sort out, and a lot of damage happens for those on the right side of history waiting to be vindicated. More on the politics of science: https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/14/whats-next-fauci/
Here is one last article on the politicization of science. An overview of the CDC's traditional non-partisan role and how this impacts the current pandemic response.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/13/cdc-apolitical-island-defenseless/
Infographics of the day - Rain and Garbage
https://www.compoundchem.com/2014/05/14/thesmellofrain/
contrasted with
https://www.compoundchem.com/2017/06/22/garbage/
---- Bonus Round - Surprised, not surprised.
I did not realize Susan B. Anthony and Frederick Douglas were friends. As I have written about, the woman's suffrage movement and the civil rights movement were not aligned through much of the 19th and early 20th centuries. Their relationship, the debates, and the issues encapsulate the larger arguments between the two movements so well. Nevertheless, there is a statue to their friendship in their mutual hometown of Rochester, NY, and there is an illustrated book about their friendship.
https://www.brainpickings.org/2020/07/12/two-friends-susan-b-anthony-frederick-douglass/
book: https://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0545399963/
As usual, the story may be more complicated:
https://www.theodysseyonline.com/uncovering-history-was-susan-anthony-racist-frederick-douglass-sexist
or
https://2020owovfest.org/susan-b-anthony-and-frederick-douglass/
Over the weekend, I found myself watching the Netflix movie The Old Guard. Netflix seems to have a catalog of explosion/violence-driven eye candy they are releasing this year. However, I found myself enjoying it more than I anticipated. I found an interview with the director, who also sees more depth in the story and her story.
https://www.wired.com/story/the-old-guard-gina-prince-bythewood/
Clean hands and sharp minds
-Adam
One of my mentors, who got me involved in healthcare policy work in Maryland, taught me the phrase, "Don't take it personally; it's just politics." (I sometimes found it hard to reconcile compromises on issues I felt could be framed around science and fact.) While this notion has stuck with me, it has never felt right. It normalizes an approach to policymaking that is cynical and highly dependent on the preferences of those with the most power. But it is an intellectual fallacy to only lean on science. Policy, in general, forces hard choices between priorities and limited resources. Programs are hard to build and harder to unwind. And the nuance and unknowns of science often don't translate well to the complexities of governing.
Nevertheless, I find the recent, very public struggle between science and policy unsettling. It is remarkable how much those in elected positions of power can wield personal preference. It is crucial to understand how much control we give to those we choose to lead us.
---Latest Data---
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-04-16..&country=USA~GBR~CAN~BRA~AUS~IND~DEU~FRA~ITA~SWE&deathsMetric=true&dailyFreq=true&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7
FT data - the second graph down now has state-level data - I suggest setting it to cases, per million, linear, and add your state to the highlighted list.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths
The NY Times has hotspot map is an excellent quick glace of rolling 2-week case change: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
State Details:
https://public.tableau.com/views/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/2_Corona?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
Rt data: https://rt.live/
COVID risk by US county: https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/
Each of the above sites reports its source data. Please review sources like https://covidtracking.com/ to understand the quality of that data.
------------
I generally appreciate those who attempt to spread truth and transparency. Wendell Potter is one such person. He is a former VP from the health insurance industry who left to become an advocate for patients. His autobiography was published several years ago, but he is very active in the media. Here is his hair-breaking-the-camels-back moment via Twitter: https://twitter.com/wendellpotter/status/1281640759045664768
He stirs up some righteous indignation that feels good, but be aware that insurance contracts, covered procedures/tests, and defined benefits are super complicated. In other words, the story is never as simple as it seems.
Here are some efforts at keeping the evolving recommendations coming from the WHO and CDC in perspective - by a microbiologist from Pitt. The comments are the takeaway - evolving thoughts from science do not mean there is inconsistency or failure. Refinement means communicating a better understanding of the data
https://twitter.com/vscooper/status/1282755989977128963
Here is some righteous indignation about a graph misrepresenting economic recovery. The comments are from John Burn-Murdoch, the Financial Times data visualizer. Thanks to COVID, he is the closest thing I have found to a celebrity data guru. My favorite part is where the author of the graph (James Smith) attempts to defend himself in the thread.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1282943693599707136
Some analyses as to why bars and alcohol may be such problematic sources of coronavirus spread from Alcoholism and Drug Abuse Weekly.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/adaw.32771
Wired covers the problem of identifying actual participants at "COVID parties" and the origins of urban legends. Titillation over reality? I can't imagine. https://www.wired.com/story/the-latest-covid-party-story-gets-a-twist/
Here is an editorial by two employees of an opt-in patient reporting registry. These authors advocate for the use of such registries for mass coronavirus vaccine complications reporting, such that vaccine developers can skip the medical records and related secondary data sources. One wonders what bias this would introduce (like excluding older and less-tech savvy/poorer patients).
https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/14/patient-reported-data-can-help-monitor-the-safety-of-fast-tracked-covid-19-vaccines/
As I have discussed numerous times, history is very unkind to those who end up on the wrong side of truth and science. Unfortunately, this takes years to sort out, and a lot of damage happens for those on the right side of history waiting to be vindicated. More on the politics of science: https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/14/whats-next-fauci/
Here is one last article on the politicization of science. An overview of the CDC's traditional non-partisan role and how this impacts the current pandemic response.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/13/cdc-apolitical-island-defenseless/
Infographics of the day - Rain and Garbage
https://www.compoundchem.com/2014/05/14/thesmellofrain/
contrasted with
https://www.compoundchem.com/2017/06/22/garbage/
---- Bonus Round - Surprised, not surprised.
I did not realize Susan B. Anthony and Frederick Douglas were friends. As I have written about, the woman's suffrage movement and the civil rights movement were not aligned through much of the 19th and early 20th centuries. Their relationship, the debates, and the issues encapsulate the larger arguments between the two movements so well. Nevertheless, there is a statue to their friendship in their mutual hometown of Rochester, NY, and there is an illustrated book about their friendship.
https://www.brainpickings.org/2020/07/12/two-friends-susan-b-anthony-frederick-douglass/
book: https://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0545399963/
As usual, the story may be more complicated:
https://www.theodysseyonline.com/uncovering-history-was-susan-anthony-racist-frederick-douglass-sexist
or
https://2020owovfest.org/susan-b-anthony-and-frederick-douglass/
Over the weekend, I found myself watching the Netflix movie The Old Guard. Netflix seems to have a catalog of explosion/violence-driven eye candy they are releasing this year. However, I found myself enjoying it more than I anticipated. I found an interview with the director, who also sees more depth in the story and her story.
https://www.wired.com/story/the-old-guard-gina-prince-bythewood/
Clean hands and sharp minds
-Adam
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