July 2, 2020
Thursday
One of the hardest parts about becoming an adult is understanding the world in terms of probabilities. Nothing is guaranteed, and very few choices offer only binary outcomes. We are about to mutedly celebrate one of my favorite holiday weekends (celebrating a low probability event from 1776, leading to 219 years of slow, stuttering, painful progress in human freedom). It is vital to help our friends and family understand that complexity, nuance, and uncertainty do not go away by ignoring data and pretending reality is not what it is. For me, the reminder that maintaining the structures and functions of how we have chosen to govern ourselves requires the right mix of care, love, and engagement. Here is my favorite anecdote on this issue - an exchange between Elizabeth Powel (wife of the mayor of Philadelphia) and Benjamin Franklin, discussing the recently completed US Constitution in 1787:
Powel: Well, Doctor, what have we got?
Franklin: A republic, Madam, if you can keep it.
Powel: And why not keep it?
Franklin: Because the people, on tasting the dish, are always disposed to eat more of it than does them good.
Please use portion control and respect the sneeze guard at that buffet of freedom, my friends.
(Source: https://boston1775.blogspot.com/2017/03/how-dr-mchenry-operated-on-his-anecdote.html and https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2019/12/18/republic-if-you-can-keep-it-did-ben-franklin-really-say-impeachment-days-favorite-quote/)
----------
Latest Data
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-04-16..&country=USA~GBR~CAN~BRA~AUS~IND~DEU~FRA~ITA~SWE&deathsMetric=true&dailyFreq=true&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7
FT data - the second graph down now has state-level data - I suggest setting it to cases, per million, linear, and add your state to the highlighted list.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths
The NY Times has hotspot map is an excellent quick glace of rolling 2-week case change: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
State Details:
https://public.tableau.com/views/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/2_Corona?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
Rt data: https://rt.live/
Each of the above sites reports its source data. Please review sources like https://covidtracking.com/ to understand the quality of that data.
------
It appears that July 2 (yesterday) was intergalactic COVID data visualization day. I only learned about the celebration(?) by the number of new websites I became aware of displaying data in occularifacious ways (I totally made that word up). A few points: Don't spend any time thinking about how to celebrate an intergalactic holiday based on a 24-hour rotation of one planet. And, these are some seriously well-done data displays to share with friends and family who ask questions:
The design company FirstPerson organized data from the Milken Institute into a visual story about the where, how, and timeline of vaccine development. I highly recommend spending time with this site.
https://www.covid-19vaccinetracker.org/
Johns Hopkins has put state by state data together - linking public policy with coronavirus case data, attempting to illustrate the relationship between the two. Another critical resource in understanding that a state government actions can be associated with trends in coronavirus spread.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/state-timeline
Harvard offers a new county-level relative risk based on daily cases.
https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/
While not a new visualization website, understanding the impact of our lone no-lockdown test case, Sweden, is helpful to have as a quick reference point for any discussions that may arise around the 6-foot diameter firepit. https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1277532553856122880
Yesterday saw some preliminary data and a lot of discussion about vaccines. Pfizer's candidate mRNA vaccine (BNT162b1) had a high rate of fever, but overall, seemed well tolerated:
https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1278433560978952192
Article
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.30.20142570v1.full.pdf+html
or more analysis
https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/01/covid-19-vaccine-from-pfizer-and-biontech-shows-positive-results/
The NY Times offered an excellent overview of the tradeoffs of challenge testing vaccines
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/health/coronavirus-vaccine-trials.html
There is an unfortunate upsurge in anti-science floating around too. You will possibly find yourself dealing with this conversation. I offer my thoughts:
Here is a sampling of intellectual refuse:
https://twitter.com/westall_sarahw/status/1278130921506582528
or
https://twitter.com/ct_bergstrom/status/1278491775913521154?s=21
or
https://twitter.com/Thesciencevort1/status/1278352176532934657
Please remember the following points:
Masks do not harm people. There is no data to suggest wearing masks causes oxygen deprivation or CO2 retention. Healthcare professionals wear masks for many hours of the day while performing tasks like neurosurgery for the last 100+ years.
Droplet transmission (virus attached to water vapor from the breath) is the most common means of spreading coronavirus. There is some data to suggest aerosolization as well, but far less clear when and how this happens. There are numerous and increasing data demonstrating the decreased spread of droplets with face coverings.
As such, the widespread use of masks reduces but does not eliminate, the spread of the virus from asymptomatic, infected subjects when coming into prolonged and close contact with others. The combination of masks, social distancing, minimizing indoor exposure to the possible aerosolized and droplet-bound virus, and handwashing cumulatively decreases the risk of spread and infection. You are protecting you, your loved ones, and others while science sorts out this disease. In the interim, mutual accountability and mutual respect are what big girls and boys do when we care about one another. Sorry for being preachy.
One last article - an interview from Dr. Frieden, former CDC director:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/how-frieden-says-u-s-states-can-slow-alarming-spread-of-coronavirus
Infographic of the day: I just like this-
https://i.redd.it/ad51h6ebi9851.jpg
Infographic of the day #2 - thinking about real fake news.
https://i.redd.it/1s9t4gzco8851.jpg
and check out the source - citizen journalists from Sri Lanka
https://groundviews.org/
---Bonus Round - Badass Seafood
In Maryland, steamed crabs are spoken of and celebrated in a near-religious way. I thought I would take the day off from social justice and historical figures to share my two favorite creatures.
Coconut Crabs are giant hermit crabs are the largest living arthropod - up to 9 lbs and 3 feet in length. It is a scavenger, eating mostly fruit but will eat carrion as well. They are disconcertingly large and have been known to attack live birds as well. They are native to the pacific islands and may have been the scavengers that ate Amelia Earhart. These are the creatures from nightmares. But they are also tasty. Odd, juxtaposition there.
Picture
https://external-preview.redd.it/Tw4aOm-_1pbHq0vZSA1rSPF9OjQlrFWXS03bgeCYhtA.jpg?auto=webp&s=c6af32e9474c5eeea541bf564e5eea17e7c8dde3
Video and article of bird-eating
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2152805-giant-coconut-crab-sneaks-up-on-a-sleeping-bird-and-kills-it/
Recipes!
https://external-preview.redd.it/Tw4aOm-_1pbHq0vZSA1rSPF9OjQlrFWXS03bgeCYhtA.jpg?auto=webp&s=c6af32e9474c5eeea541bf564e5eea17e7c8dde3
WTF? Did Adam somehow weave Amelia Earhart into this? Why yes, he did:
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/2019/08/colossal-crabs-hold-clue-amelia-earhart-fate/
Mantis Shrimp live in the pacific and have many interesting traits. They have uniquely evolved vision for a wider range and quicker processing of colors to identify prey. The understanding of what their vision does is an evolving science, but suffice to say it is different from other creatures. However, the most impressive trait is the rapid, powerful punching and stabbing the shrimp is capable of. You need to see the videos. Really. AND, these are also tasty, so I have read.
Background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mantis_shrimp
Punching videos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CW8NUCPLE1c
Eye data: https://www.nature.com/news/mantis-shrimp-s-super-colour-vision-debunked-1.14578
Recipies:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BF0gSIOj67s&pbjreload=101
Clean hands and sharp minds, team
Please be safe and thoughtful
Back on Monday.
-AW
One of the hardest parts about becoming an adult is understanding the world in terms of probabilities. Nothing is guaranteed, and very few choices offer only binary outcomes. We are about to mutedly celebrate one of my favorite holiday weekends (celebrating a low probability event from 1776, leading to 219 years of slow, stuttering, painful progress in human freedom). It is vital to help our friends and family understand that complexity, nuance, and uncertainty do not go away by ignoring data and pretending reality is not what it is. For me, the reminder that maintaining the structures and functions of how we have chosen to govern ourselves requires the right mix of care, love, and engagement. Here is my favorite anecdote on this issue - an exchange between Elizabeth Powel (wife of the mayor of Philadelphia) and Benjamin Franklin, discussing the recently completed US Constitution in 1787:
Powel: Well, Doctor, what have we got?
Franklin: A republic, Madam, if you can keep it.
Powel: And why not keep it?
Franklin: Because the people, on tasting the dish, are always disposed to eat more of it than does them good.
Please use portion control and respect the sneeze guard at that buffet of freedom, my friends.
(Source: https://boston1775.blogspot.com/2017/03/how-dr-mchenry-operated-on-his-anecdote.html and https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2019/12/18/republic-if-you-can-keep-it-did-ben-franklin-really-say-impeachment-days-favorite-quote/)
----------
Latest Data
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-04-16..&country=USA~GBR~CAN~BRA~AUS~IND~DEU~FRA~ITA~SWE&deathsMetric=true&dailyFreq=true&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7
FT data - the second graph down now has state-level data - I suggest setting it to cases, per million, linear, and add your state to the highlighted list.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths
The NY Times has hotspot map is an excellent quick glace of rolling 2-week case change: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
State Details:
https://public.tableau.com/views/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/2_Corona?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
Rt data: https://rt.live/
Each of the above sites reports its source data. Please review sources like https://covidtracking.com/ to understand the quality of that data.
------
It appears that July 2 (yesterday) was intergalactic COVID data visualization day. I only learned about the celebration(?) by the number of new websites I became aware of displaying data in occularifacious ways (I totally made that word up). A few points: Don't spend any time thinking about how to celebrate an intergalactic holiday based on a 24-hour rotation of one planet. And, these are some seriously well-done data displays to share with friends and family who ask questions:
The design company FirstPerson organized data from the Milken Institute into a visual story about the where, how, and timeline of vaccine development. I highly recommend spending time with this site.
https://www.covid-19vaccinetracker.org/
Johns Hopkins has put state by state data together - linking public policy with coronavirus case data, attempting to illustrate the relationship between the two. Another critical resource in understanding that a state government actions can be associated with trends in coronavirus spread.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/state-timeline
Harvard offers a new county-level relative risk based on daily cases.
https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/
While not a new visualization website, understanding the impact of our lone no-lockdown test case, Sweden, is helpful to have as a quick reference point for any discussions that may arise around the 6-foot diameter firepit. https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1277532553856122880
Yesterday saw some preliminary data and a lot of discussion about vaccines. Pfizer's candidate mRNA vaccine (BNT162b1) had a high rate of fever, but overall, seemed well tolerated:
https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1278433560978952192
Article
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.30.20142570v1.full.pdf+html
or more analysis
https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/01/covid-19-vaccine-from-pfizer-and-biontech-shows-positive-results/
The NY Times offered an excellent overview of the tradeoffs of challenge testing vaccines
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/health/coronavirus-vaccine-trials.html
There is an unfortunate upsurge in anti-science floating around too. You will possibly find yourself dealing with this conversation. I offer my thoughts:
Here is a sampling of intellectual refuse:
https://twitter.com/westall_sarahw/status/1278130921506582528
or
https://twitter.com/ct_bergstrom/status/1278491775913521154?s=21
or
https://twitter.com/Thesciencevort1/status/1278352176532934657
Please remember the following points:
Masks do not harm people. There is no data to suggest wearing masks causes oxygen deprivation or CO2 retention. Healthcare professionals wear masks for many hours of the day while performing tasks like neurosurgery for the last 100+ years.
Droplet transmission (virus attached to water vapor from the breath) is the most common means of spreading coronavirus. There is some data to suggest aerosolization as well, but far less clear when and how this happens. There are numerous and increasing data demonstrating the decreased spread of droplets with face coverings.
As such, the widespread use of masks reduces but does not eliminate, the spread of the virus from asymptomatic, infected subjects when coming into prolonged and close contact with others. The combination of masks, social distancing, minimizing indoor exposure to the possible aerosolized and droplet-bound virus, and handwashing cumulatively decreases the risk of spread and infection. You are protecting you, your loved ones, and others while science sorts out this disease. In the interim, mutual accountability and mutual respect are what big girls and boys do when we care about one another. Sorry for being preachy.
One last article - an interview from Dr. Frieden, former CDC director:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/how-frieden-says-u-s-states-can-slow-alarming-spread-of-coronavirus
Infographic of the day: I just like this-
https://i.redd.it/ad51h6ebi9851.jpg
Infographic of the day #2 - thinking about real fake news.
https://i.redd.it/1s9t4gzco8851.jpg
and check out the source - citizen journalists from Sri Lanka
https://groundviews.org/
---Bonus Round - Badass Seafood
In Maryland, steamed crabs are spoken of and celebrated in a near-religious way. I thought I would take the day off from social justice and historical figures to share my two favorite creatures.
Coconut Crabs are giant hermit crabs are the largest living arthropod - up to 9 lbs and 3 feet in length. It is a scavenger, eating mostly fruit but will eat carrion as well. They are disconcertingly large and have been known to attack live birds as well. They are native to the pacific islands and may have been the scavengers that ate Amelia Earhart. These are the creatures from nightmares. But they are also tasty. Odd, juxtaposition there.
Picture
https://external-preview.redd.it/Tw4aOm-_1pbHq0vZSA1rSPF9OjQlrFWXS03bgeCYhtA.jpg?auto=webp&s=c6af32e9474c5eeea541bf564e5eea17e7c8dde3
Video and article of bird-eating
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2152805-giant-coconut-crab-sneaks-up-on-a-sleeping-bird-and-kills-it/
Recipes!
https://external-preview.redd.it/Tw4aOm-_1pbHq0vZSA1rSPF9OjQlrFWXS03bgeCYhtA.jpg?auto=webp&s=c6af32e9474c5eeea541bf564e5eea17e7c8dde3
WTF? Did Adam somehow weave Amelia Earhart into this? Why yes, he did:
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/2019/08/colossal-crabs-hold-clue-amelia-earhart-fate/
Mantis Shrimp live in the pacific and have many interesting traits. They have uniquely evolved vision for a wider range and quicker processing of colors to identify prey. The understanding of what their vision does is an evolving science, but suffice to say it is different from other creatures. However, the most impressive trait is the rapid, powerful punching and stabbing the shrimp is capable of. You need to see the videos. Really. AND, these are also tasty, so I have read.
Background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mantis_shrimp
Punching videos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CW8NUCPLE1c
Eye data: https://www.nature.com/news/mantis-shrimp-s-super-colour-vision-debunked-1.14578
Recipies:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BF0gSIOj67s&pbjreload=101
Clean hands and sharp minds, team
Please be safe and thoughtful
Back on Monday.
-AW
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