July 22, 2020
Wednesday
Some days, the best wisdom I can think to share is to stop reading the news for a bit. And then, I write this email.
There seem to be quite a few articles debating data, data quality, and data interpretation today.
---Latest Data---
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-04-16..&country=USA~GBR~CAN~BRA~AUS~IND~DEU~FRA~ITA~SWE&deathsMetric=true&dailyFreq=true&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7
FT data - the second graph down now has state-level data - I suggest setting it to cases, per million, linear, and add your state to the highlighted list.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths
The NY Times has hotspot map is an excellent quick glace of rolling 2-week case change: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
State Details:
https://public.tableau.com/views/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/2_Corona?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
Rt data: https://rt.live/
COVID risk by US county: https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/
Estimate your risk of exposure to a COVID positive person based on your county and the size of gathering: https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/
Each of the above sites reports its source data. Please review sources like https://covidtracking.com/ to understand the quality of that data.
---------
Here is a report (and article about the report) on the status of critical data needed to manage a pandemic. As we have discussed, state reporting is not consistent.
https://preventepidemics.org/covid19/resources/indicators/
and
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/21/coronavirus-states-data/
Atul Gawande offers some commentary on this:
https://twitter.com/Atul_Gawande/status/1285635304343457792
For those that want a deeper-dive on antibody responses, Florian Krammer, offers a comprehensive tweetorial on his latest research on SARS-CoV-2 antibody response.
https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1285618977654407169
The shortest version of the information: "Even when antibodies drop down, your immune cells (B and T) retain the memory of the virus. On a second infection, they can spring into action quickly and produce more antibodies. So we don't need to be super worried about that reports that antibody levels drop after a while." (from @KanakaMPH)
More on this topic from other immunologists via Twitter:
https://twitter.com/SCOTTeHENSLEY/status/1285626936325279748
Here is a local story of a COVID+ patient refusing to quarantine, putting others at risk, and perpetuating the pandemic. It is hard to find appropriate words to describe the self-focused behavior. I am sure there is more to this story (financial fears, fear of lack of support, etc.). Either way, there are now many more infected individuals, and we all lose. These kinds of events are what government - local, state, and federal - can help mitigate if all are working in a coordinated fashion to support people making wise choices. I can't imagine that criminal justice is the best, efficient, or effective way to address these issues.
https://www.ksby.com/news/coronavirus/who-is-holding-people-accountable-atascadero-man-says-roommate-kept-covid-19-diagnosis-secret
Coffee article of the day - More on the overlap of racial inequality and COVID
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/white-neighborhoods-have-more-access-to-covid-19-testing-sites/
It is (comforting? scary? entertaining?) to know that other countries have leaders living in a deeper, more robust, and more oblivious fantasy land than some of our leaders.
https://qz.com/1882821/north-korea-is-working-on-a-covid-vaccine-while-claiming-no-cases/?utm_source=reddit.com
Australians offer tips on wearing masks. Despite coming from the other side of the planet, this is a reasonable set of suggestions. https://theconversation.com/13-insider-tips-on-how-to-wear-a-mask-without-your-glasses-fogging-up-getting-short-of-breath-or-your-ears-hurting-143001
More activity risk guidance https://www.covid19reopen.com/risk-index
What is more interesting is that this website is part of a consulting company looking to help companies reopen. Take a look at the principles. Ezekiel Emanuel (world-famous medical researcher and Rham Emanuel's brother), Saskia Papsecu, and James Phillips - both high volume twitter commenters. I'm sure this isn't the only COVID-specific consulting company out there, and there is a market for this work.
https://www.covid19reopen.com/risk-index
AND Wired has an article on this specific risk index
https://www.wired.com/story/to-navigate-risk-in-a-pandemic-you-need-a-color-coded-chart/
After the aborted closure of liquor stores earlier this year (they are essential, as I recall we learned), I see the governor of Colorado is now ending alcohol sales at 10 PM. I wonder what behaviors this will inadvertently incentivize?
https://coloradosun.com/2020/07/21/jared-polis-coronavirus-briefing-july-21/
Slate offers an article on the problems of drug pricing in the context of Remdesivir. It is a good overview of the financial pressures of private drug development and the continued debates we need to have on public-private partnerships.
https://slate.com/technology/2020/07/remdesivir-covid19-treatment-gilead-price.html
I do not have the mental stamina to spend time on Facebook these days. There is some degree of oversight by the company now? Maybe.
https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/20/21331060/anti-mask-groups-facebook-misinformation
I don't know what to make of this experiment - holding a real concert in Miami to simulate how a virus might spread during the time of an actual pandemic in which testing is not realtime, and there is a high prevalence of the disease. I checked three times to ensure I wasn't reading an Onion article.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article244375897.html
a related Onion Public Radio piece:
https://www.theonion.com/spain-holds-first-annual-running-of-the-virus-festiva-1844439745
Infographics of the day #1 - A fascinating article that takes time to absorb:
This PNAS article looks at how personality traits, measured via social media use, can be predictive of the psychologic profiles. In turn, those profiles can then be mapped to different occupation types. It essentially predicts someone's psychological profile from their twitter feed and matches those aggregated profiles into related occupations. The takeaway is: your social media use can say a lot more than what you are saying.
https://www.pnas.org/content/116/52/26459
More not infographics: The psychology of fonts
https://www.companyfolders.com/blog/font-psychology-how-typefaces-hack-our-brains
---Bonus Round --- The psychology of love and hate
I found this article by Christian Picciolini this morning. He is a former white supremacist who has spent the last 20+ years writing, speaking, and helping understand and mitigate hate. This TED talk is about the psychology and circumstances of those who join extremist groups.
https://ideas.ted.com/what-leads-a-person-to-white-supremacy-here-is-one-mans-story/
Here is a 2017 article from The Atlantic on the struggle of dealing with implicit bias. It takes work, time, and awareness is the short story. All bias and intellectual fallacies (so often alluded to here) require effort to navigate, is my ongoing take. Get a second cup of coffee to read this one:
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/05/unconscious-bias-training/525405/?utm_source=atlfb
Clean hands and sharp minds,
-Adam
Some days, the best wisdom I can think to share is to stop reading the news for a bit. And then, I write this email.
There seem to be quite a few articles debating data, data quality, and data interpretation today.
---Latest Data---
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-04-16..&country=USA~GBR~CAN~BRA~AUS~IND~DEU~FRA~ITA~SWE&deathsMetric=true&dailyFreq=true&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7
FT data - the second graph down now has state-level data - I suggest setting it to cases, per million, linear, and add your state to the highlighted list.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths
The NY Times has hotspot map is an excellent quick glace of rolling 2-week case change: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
State Details:
https://public.tableau.com/views/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/2_Corona?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
Rt data: https://rt.live/
COVID risk by US county: https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/
Estimate your risk of exposure to a COVID positive person based on your county and the size of gathering: https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/
Each of the above sites reports its source data. Please review sources like https://covidtracking.com/ to understand the quality of that data.
---------
Here is a report (and article about the report) on the status of critical data needed to manage a pandemic. As we have discussed, state reporting is not consistent.
https://preventepidemics.org/covid19/resources/indicators/
and
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/21/coronavirus-states-data/
Atul Gawande offers some commentary on this:
https://twitter.com/Atul_Gawande/status/1285635304343457792
For those that want a deeper-dive on antibody responses, Florian Krammer, offers a comprehensive tweetorial on his latest research on SARS-CoV-2 antibody response.
https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1285618977654407169
The shortest version of the information: "Even when antibodies drop down, your immune cells (B and T) retain the memory of the virus. On a second infection, they can spring into action quickly and produce more antibodies. So we don't need to be super worried about that reports that antibody levels drop after a while." (from @KanakaMPH)
More on this topic from other immunologists via Twitter:
https://twitter.com/SCOTTeHENSLEY/status/1285626936325279748
Here is a local story of a COVID+ patient refusing to quarantine, putting others at risk, and perpetuating the pandemic. It is hard to find appropriate words to describe the self-focused behavior. I am sure there is more to this story (financial fears, fear of lack of support, etc.). Either way, there are now many more infected individuals, and we all lose. These kinds of events are what government - local, state, and federal - can help mitigate if all are working in a coordinated fashion to support people making wise choices. I can't imagine that criminal justice is the best, efficient, or effective way to address these issues.
https://www.ksby.com/news/coronavirus/who-is-holding-people-accountable-atascadero-man-says-roommate-kept-covid-19-diagnosis-secret
Coffee article of the day - More on the overlap of racial inequality and COVID
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/white-neighborhoods-have-more-access-to-covid-19-testing-sites/
It is (comforting? scary? entertaining?) to know that other countries have leaders living in a deeper, more robust, and more oblivious fantasy land than some of our leaders.
https://qz.com/1882821/north-korea-is-working-on-a-covid-vaccine-while-claiming-no-cases/?utm_source=reddit.com
Australians offer tips on wearing masks. Despite coming from the other side of the planet, this is a reasonable set of suggestions. https://theconversation.com/13-insider-tips-on-how-to-wear-a-mask-without-your-glasses-fogging-up-getting-short-of-breath-or-your-ears-hurting-143001
More activity risk guidance https://www.covid19reopen.com/risk-index
What is more interesting is that this website is part of a consulting company looking to help companies reopen. Take a look at the principles. Ezekiel Emanuel (world-famous medical researcher and Rham Emanuel's brother), Saskia Papsecu, and James Phillips - both high volume twitter commenters. I'm sure this isn't the only COVID-specific consulting company out there, and there is a market for this work.
https://www.covid19reopen.com/risk-index
AND Wired has an article on this specific risk index
https://www.wired.com/story/to-navigate-risk-in-a-pandemic-you-need-a-color-coded-chart/
After the aborted closure of liquor stores earlier this year (they are essential, as I recall we learned), I see the governor of Colorado is now ending alcohol sales at 10 PM. I wonder what behaviors this will inadvertently incentivize?
https://coloradosun.com/2020/07/21/jared-polis-coronavirus-briefing-july-21/
Slate offers an article on the problems of drug pricing in the context of Remdesivir. It is a good overview of the financial pressures of private drug development and the continued debates we need to have on public-private partnerships.
https://slate.com/technology/2020/07/remdesivir-covid19-treatment-gilead-price.html
I do not have the mental stamina to spend time on Facebook these days. There is some degree of oversight by the company now? Maybe.
https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/20/21331060/anti-mask-groups-facebook-misinformation
I don't know what to make of this experiment - holding a real concert in Miami to simulate how a virus might spread during the time of an actual pandemic in which testing is not realtime, and there is a high prevalence of the disease. I checked three times to ensure I wasn't reading an Onion article.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article244375897.html
a related Onion Public Radio piece:
https://www.theonion.com/spain-holds-first-annual-running-of-the-virus-festiva-1844439745
Infographics of the day #1 - A fascinating article that takes time to absorb:
This PNAS article looks at how personality traits, measured via social media use, can be predictive of the psychologic profiles. In turn, those profiles can then be mapped to different occupation types. It essentially predicts someone's psychological profile from their twitter feed and matches those aggregated profiles into related occupations. The takeaway is: your social media use can say a lot more than what you are saying.
https://www.pnas.org/content/116/52/26459
More not infographics: The psychology of fonts
https://www.companyfolders.com/blog/font-psychology-how-typefaces-hack-our-brains
---Bonus Round --- The psychology of love and hate
I found this article by Christian Picciolini this morning. He is a former white supremacist who has spent the last 20+ years writing, speaking, and helping understand and mitigate hate. This TED talk is about the psychology and circumstances of those who join extremist groups.
https://ideas.ted.com/what-leads-a-person-to-white-supremacy-here-is-one-mans-story/
Here is a 2017 article from The Atlantic on the struggle of dealing with implicit bias. It takes work, time, and awareness is the short story. All bias and intellectual fallacies (so often alluded to here) require effort to navigate, is my ongoing take. Get a second cup of coffee to read this one:
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/05/unconscious-bias-training/525405/?utm_source=atlfb
Clean hands and sharp minds,
-Adam
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