July 8, 2020
Wednesday
I am pretty sure the cardinals visiting my bird feeder know I am the guy that fills it. Amongst the various birds, the cardinals consistently land in the bush closest to my office window and look in. They are not skittish or frightened by sudden movements, even when I approach the window. I can only imagine what they are thinking about the human walking on a treadmill, going nowhere, who comes outside to refill the feeder on occasion. From the birds' point of view, I guess I am somewhere between a god-like food giver and a rube who leaves out seeds for no apparent reason. It is all a matter of perspective, I suppose. Sometimes we don't fully appreciate the parts we play.
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Latest Data
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-04-16..&country=USA~GBR~CAN~BRA~AUS~IND~DEU~FRA~ITA~SWE&deathsMetric=true&dailyFreq=true&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7
FT data - the second graph down now has state-level data - I suggest setting it to cases, per million, linear, and add your state to the highlighted list.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths
The NY Times has hotspot map is an excellent quick glace of rolling 2-week case change: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
State Details:
https://public.tableau.com/views/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/2_Corona?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
Rt data: https://rt.live/
COVID risk by US county: https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/
Each of the above sites reports its source data. Please review sources like https://covidtracking.com/ to understand the quality of that data.
------------
A loyal reader sent a Twitter thread on the case fatality rate. This thread is well-written and will help explain the data and the reported statistics. It a shame it takes a pandemic to teach us these lessons.
https://twitter.com/mbeckett/status/1278750652160634880
https://www.miamiherald.com/article244048107.html
And there are concerns that Florida continues to have "difficulties" counting patients and sharing those data. Like hospitalized patients. This quote is so telling:
Under pressure last week as COVID-19 hospitalizations soared in Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis' office said the state would start reporting daily hospitalization data for all 67 counties.
DeSantis on Tuesday, however, refused to address the fact that the state has yet to make good on its promise when asked by a Miami Herald reporter.
"Obviously not everything is presented in this report but just an unbelievable amount of data is available," DeSantis said at an indoor press conference held at Florida's 12th COVID-only nursing facility near Miami International Airport.
Yes, an unbelievable amount of data to be sure.
Some states are counting hospital bed availability (which appears to be a lower number to count than hospitalized patients in FL at this point.) https://www.henryherald.com/features/health/56-florida-hospital-icus-have-hit-capacity/article_bb10d127-cfeb-514d-86c3-7f53714d144a.html
Here is more data on why even mild COVID cases may have a larger systemic impact.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brains-idUSKBN24837S
or
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-delirium-rare-brain-inflammation-linked.html
Despite the previous designation of World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) as a critical business in Florida, they see increased numbers of COVID cases amongst their staff and performers.
https://prowrestlingrecord.com/2020/07/07/coronavirus-cases-reportedly-increases-in-wwe/
Despite having interacted with numerous politicians, I will never fully understand doubling-down on bad ideas. Are there no face-saving means to acknowledge science and reality? What kind of leadership is this? I feel for Nino Vitale's constituents in Ohio house district 85, but the article states he runs unopposed. Hmmm.
https://www.10tv.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/state-representative-urges-ohioans-to-stop-getting-tested-for-coronavirus/530-d4a4b417-ba6e-4252-bab4-2deeaa700626
I have very much come to appreciate many of our tweeting scientists. Florian Krammer spent some time dissecting the T-cell/Antibody debate I highlighted yesterday (via Eric Topol's tweets).
https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1280519964752064512
Here is a well-written editorial on the Pfizer RNA vaccine data released last week. The author does a nice job of walking through the data and highlighting key points on understanding vaccine trials.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/01/pfizer-and-biontechs-first-vaccine-candidate
Avigan (Favipiravir) is back in the news. The Bangladesh Society of Medicine reported some interesting positive data on its use via a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. The article below doesn't give enough information to evaluate the methods. This is a good example of using many of the right words without offering supporting data. I cannot even find an original article about the study. Show me the data!
https://tbsnews.net/coronavirus-chronicle/japanese-covid-19-drug-expedites-recovery-during-clinical-study-103204
Here is a softer article on an American epidemiologist working at the World Health Organization. It highlights some of the work WHO does and why there may be value in offering continued support for that work.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/08/a-disease-detective-is-thrust-onto-the-front-lines-of-whos-covid-19-response/
Dictionary of the day. Yesterday, I learned the word "Sonder." Then, I learned about the Dictionary of Obscure Sorrows. Now you, too, can learn about it.
Background: https://writingcooperative.com/the-dictionary-of-obscure-sorrows-d1688040bd26
Dictionary: https://www.dictionaryofobscuresorrows.com/
I wish I had a word to describe my delight at finding such a thing.
Infographic of the day #2 - indigenous languages of North America
I see this map from time to time. I am always amazed at the diversity. Imagining the range of culture, thoughts, and beliefs is mind-boggling. Any version of this map is just a snapshot in time (and I'm sure inaccurate), but still. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indigenous_peoples_of_the_Americas#/media/File:Langs_N.Amer.png
Bonus Round - Old School Activism
Thanks to all the Civil War statue discussions, I was reminded of the name Tecumseh. In turn, I spent some time refreshing my reading on THE Tecumseh - the Shawnee Chief from the late 1700s, who was one of the first celebrity Native Americans. His ideas on pan-Native Americanism were novel and the basis for other factional or tribal cultures attempting to unite to oppose colonial or expansionist nations. What is most interesting is how widely respected he was by his fellow Native Americans and the European Americans he fought.
A biography in Socialist Worker magazine (which is an interesting comment on how one can interpret his politics).
https://socialistworker.org/2010/06/24/tecumseh-and-indian-resistance
broader background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tecumseh
Clean hands and sharp minds, team
-AW
I had a lot of follow-up comments on yesterday's email. It is great to know this work is of value. Thanks for the many kind words.
I am pretty sure the cardinals visiting my bird feeder know I am the guy that fills it. Amongst the various birds, the cardinals consistently land in the bush closest to my office window and look in. They are not skittish or frightened by sudden movements, even when I approach the window. I can only imagine what they are thinking about the human walking on a treadmill, going nowhere, who comes outside to refill the feeder on occasion. From the birds' point of view, I guess I am somewhere between a god-like food giver and a rube who leaves out seeds for no apparent reason. It is all a matter of perspective, I suppose. Sometimes we don't fully appreciate the parts we play.
----
Latest Data
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-04-16..&country=USA~GBR~CAN~BRA~AUS~IND~DEU~FRA~ITA~SWE&deathsMetric=true&dailyFreq=true&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7
FT data - the second graph down now has state-level data - I suggest setting it to cases, per million, linear, and add your state to the highlighted list.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths
The NY Times has hotspot map is an excellent quick glace of rolling 2-week case change: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
State Details:
https://public.tableau.com/views/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/2_Corona?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
Rt data: https://rt.live/
COVID risk by US county: https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/
Each of the above sites reports its source data. Please review sources like https://covidtracking.com/ to understand the quality of that data.
------------
A loyal reader sent a Twitter thread on the case fatality rate. This thread is well-written and will help explain the data and the reported statistics. It a shame it takes a pandemic to teach us these lessons.
https://twitter.com/mbeckett/status/1278750652160634880
https://www.miamiherald.com/article244048107.html
And there are concerns that Florida continues to have "difficulties" counting patients and sharing those data. Like hospitalized patients. This quote is so telling:
Under pressure last week as COVID-19 hospitalizations soared in Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis' office said the state would start reporting daily hospitalization data for all 67 counties.
DeSantis on Tuesday, however, refused to address the fact that the state has yet to make good on its promise when asked by a Miami Herald reporter.
"Obviously not everything is presented in this report but just an unbelievable amount of data is available," DeSantis said at an indoor press conference held at Florida's 12th COVID-only nursing facility near Miami International Airport.
Yes, an unbelievable amount of data to be sure.
Some states are counting hospital bed availability (which appears to be a lower number to count than hospitalized patients in FL at this point.) https://www.henryherald.com/features/health/56-florida-hospital-icus-have-hit-capacity/article_bb10d127-cfeb-514d-86c3-7f53714d144a.html
Here is more data on why even mild COVID cases may have a larger systemic impact.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brains-idUSKBN24837S
or
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-delirium-rare-brain-inflammation-linked.html
Despite the previous designation of World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) as a critical business in Florida, they see increased numbers of COVID cases amongst their staff and performers.
https://prowrestlingrecord.com/2020/07/07/coronavirus-cases-reportedly-increases-in-wwe/
Despite having interacted with numerous politicians, I will never fully understand doubling-down on bad ideas. Are there no face-saving means to acknowledge science and reality? What kind of leadership is this? I feel for Nino Vitale's constituents in Ohio house district 85, but the article states he runs unopposed. Hmmm.
https://www.10tv.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/state-representative-urges-ohioans-to-stop-getting-tested-for-coronavirus/530-d4a4b417-ba6e-4252-bab4-2deeaa700626
I have very much come to appreciate many of our tweeting scientists. Florian Krammer spent some time dissecting the T-cell/Antibody debate I highlighted yesterday (via Eric Topol's tweets).
https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1280519964752064512
Here is a well-written editorial on the Pfizer RNA vaccine data released last week. The author does a nice job of walking through the data and highlighting key points on understanding vaccine trials.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/01/pfizer-and-biontechs-first-vaccine-candidate
Avigan (Favipiravir) is back in the news. The Bangladesh Society of Medicine reported some interesting positive data on its use via a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. The article below doesn't give enough information to evaluate the methods. This is a good example of using many of the right words without offering supporting data. I cannot even find an original article about the study. Show me the data!
https://tbsnews.net/coronavirus-chronicle/japanese-covid-19-drug-expedites-recovery-during-clinical-study-103204
Here is a softer article on an American epidemiologist working at the World Health Organization. It highlights some of the work WHO does and why there may be value in offering continued support for that work.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/08/a-disease-detective-is-thrust-onto-the-front-lines-of-whos-covid-19-response/
Dictionary of the day. Yesterday, I learned the word "Sonder." Then, I learned about the Dictionary of Obscure Sorrows. Now you, too, can learn about it.
Background: https://writingcooperative.com/the-dictionary-of-obscure-sorrows-d1688040bd26
Dictionary: https://www.dictionaryofobscuresorrows.com/
I wish I had a word to describe my delight at finding such a thing.
Infographic of the day #2 - indigenous languages of North America
I see this map from time to time. I am always amazed at the diversity. Imagining the range of culture, thoughts, and beliefs is mind-boggling. Any version of this map is just a snapshot in time (and I'm sure inaccurate), but still. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indigenous_peoples_of_the_Americas#/media/File:Langs_N.Amer.png
Bonus Round - Old School Activism
Thanks to all the Civil War statue discussions, I was reminded of the name Tecumseh. In turn, I spent some time refreshing my reading on THE Tecumseh - the Shawnee Chief from the late 1700s, who was one of the first celebrity Native Americans. His ideas on pan-Native Americanism were novel and the basis for other factional or tribal cultures attempting to unite to oppose colonial or expansionist nations. What is most interesting is how widely respected he was by his fellow Native Americans and the European Americans he fought.
A biography in Socialist Worker magazine (which is an interesting comment on how one can interpret his politics).
https://socialistworker.org/2010/06/24/tecumseh-and-indian-resistance
broader background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tecumseh
Clean hands and sharp minds, team
-AW
I had a lot of follow-up comments on yesterday's email. It is great to know this work is of value. Thanks for the many kind words.
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