Monday, August 10, 2020
Over the weekend, we decided our kids would be remote only for school in the fall. Concern, lack of data, and an abundance of caution drove our decision. And, my kids' school is going above and beyond with plans and protection. I am mystified by how this issue is not more of a very loud national discussion and action.
Relevant discussion:
https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1292630832553684992
------------
Latest Data
Global-View:
https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938
Nationally:
declining new cases per million in the US
stable deaths @ 3.2 per million in the US on August 7, but no multi-day trend
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&areasRegional=usco&cumulative=0&logScale=0&perMillion=1&values=cases
Also, look at https://covidtracking.com/data
The US Regionally:
There are still decline new cases and, in more states than not, falling rates of death per million, per FT data.
The NYT has the best state-level data visualization:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
About the data:
https://covidtracking.com/about-data/visualization-guide is the best resource to understand data visualization and data integrity.
-----------
The COVID Tracking Project blog has an outstanding roundup looking at the decline in testing in the US. The end of the post has links to data about the spread of COVID via in-person learning. Make a note of the predictions about the impact of in-person learning for another spike in cases.
https://covidtracking.com/blog/the-last-thing-we-need-is-fewer-tests-this-week-in-covid-19-data-aug-6
My favorite tin-foil hat tweet of the weekend:
https://twitter.com/ziyatong/status/1291727991370911746?s=10
While a 90-minute time investment may be more than your schedule can handle, virologist Florian Krammer offers a recorded session on vaccine development: https://hhmi.hosted.panopto.com/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=9be1b267-f975-4a6e-9544-ac100134313a
I did not watch the whole talk, but Dr. Krammer certainly lives up to his tweets. I also note that the HHMI (Howard Hughes Medical Institute) offers a weekly seminar, all of which are here:
https://hhmi.hosted.panopto.com/Panopto/Pages/Sessions/List.aspx#folderID=%22bed56425-0d6b-4018-8361-aba3010394d6%22&view=1&maxResults=250&sortColumn=1&sortAscending=false
MMWR published an early release article on characteristics and rates of hospitalizations for patients under 18 years of age from the COVID-NET Surveillance Team (a collection of state, local, and national epidemiologists). Bottom line: "although the cumulative rate of COVID-19–associated hospitalization among children (8.0 per 100,000 population) is low compared with that in adults (164.5), one in three hospitalized children was admitted to an intensive care unit."
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6932e3.htm?s_cid=mm6932e3_x#contribAff
STAT News offers an interesting article that covers some of the Twitter discussion I presented a week or two ago - the quick social media beat-down of Steven Salzberg, who suggested, in Forbes editorial, skipping Phase 3 vaccine development. Beyond the follow up on the topic, I found the post-Twitter condemnation reactions interesting.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/07/the-story-of-a-scientists-mea-culpa-on-covid-19-vaccines-and-a-rough-week-on-twitter
Infographic of the day: Spurious Correlations!
This website is logical fallacy gold. Seriously, get a cup of coffee, take small sips, and enjoy. Be prepared to spit coffee from your nose. My favorite so far is the correlation of the Age of Miss America with Murders by steam, hot vapors, and hot objects.
https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
-----Bonus Round: Humming Bird Battles and Ancient Science fiction
Two items caught my attention over the weekend.
My hummingbird feeders have been a disappointment this year. While I thought perhaps my homemade nectar was the issue, PBS alerted me to the fact that there may be other issues. Having now learned about how territorial hummingbirds are, I wonder what is going on in my neighborhood. Could we have had a local hummingbird revolution? Might the birds I previously saw be caught in some larger struggle for freedom and liberation? What if my hummingbirds are the villains of this story? Should I be feeding the perpetrators of hummingbird land wars?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dd86PbABNpQ
I also discovered the OG of science fiction writers, Lucian of Samosata. Like much good fiction, used created stories critical of ideas, leadership, and current events. He was probably the first to write about travel to the moon, artificial life, and extraterrestrials as a means to critique philosophy, politics, and those in power. And he did all this in the 2nd century, AD. And, it appears he inspired numerous future writers. Once again, very little is new in the realm of human ideas. I wonder where Lucian got his ideas.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucian
More info than you probably want: http://lucianofsamosata.info/wiki/doku.php?id=start
Clean hands and sharp minds,
Adam
Over the weekend, we decided our kids would be remote only for school in the fall. Concern, lack of data, and an abundance of caution drove our decision. And, my kids' school is going above and beyond with plans and protection. I am mystified by how this issue is not more of a very loud national discussion and action.
Relevant discussion:
https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1292630832553684992
------------
Latest Data
Global-View:
https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938
Nationally:
declining new cases per million in the US
stable deaths @ 3.2 per million in the US on August 7, but no multi-day trend
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&areasRegional=usco&cumulative=0&logScale=0&perMillion=1&values=cases
Also, look at https://covidtracking.com/data
The US Regionally:
There are still decline new cases and, in more states than not, falling rates of death per million, per FT data.
The NYT has the best state-level data visualization:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
About the data:
https://covidtracking.com/about-data/visualization-guide is the best resource to understand data visualization and data integrity.
-----------
The COVID Tracking Project blog has an outstanding roundup looking at the decline in testing in the US. The end of the post has links to data about the spread of COVID via in-person learning. Make a note of the predictions about the impact of in-person learning for another spike in cases.
https://covidtracking.com/blog/the-last-thing-we-need-is-fewer-tests-this-week-in-covid-19-data-aug-6
My favorite tin-foil hat tweet of the weekend:
https://twitter.com/ziyatong/status/1291727991370911746?s=10
While a 90-minute time investment may be more than your schedule can handle, virologist Florian Krammer offers a recorded session on vaccine development: https://hhmi.hosted.panopto.com/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=9be1b267-f975-4a6e-9544-ac100134313a
I did not watch the whole talk, but Dr. Krammer certainly lives up to his tweets. I also note that the HHMI (Howard Hughes Medical Institute) offers a weekly seminar, all of which are here:
https://hhmi.hosted.panopto.com/Panopto/Pages/Sessions/List.aspx#folderID=%22bed56425-0d6b-4018-8361-aba3010394d6%22&view=1&maxResults=250&sortColumn=1&sortAscending=false
MMWR published an early release article on characteristics and rates of hospitalizations for patients under 18 years of age from the COVID-NET Surveillance Team (a collection of state, local, and national epidemiologists). Bottom line: "although the cumulative rate of COVID-19–associated hospitalization among children (8.0 per 100,000 population) is low compared with that in adults (164.5), one in three hospitalized children was admitted to an intensive care unit."
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6932e3.htm?s_cid=mm6932e3_x#contribAff
STAT News offers an interesting article that covers some of the Twitter discussion I presented a week or two ago - the quick social media beat-down of Steven Salzberg, who suggested, in Forbes editorial, skipping Phase 3 vaccine development. Beyond the follow up on the topic, I found the post-Twitter condemnation reactions interesting.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/07/the-story-of-a-scientists-mea-culpa-on-covid-19-vaccines-and-a-rough-week-on-twitter
Infographic of the day: Spurious Correlations!
This website is logical fallacy gold. Seriously, get a cup of coffee, take small sips, and enjoy. Be prepared to spit coffee from your nose. My favorite so far is the correlation of the Age of Miss America with Murders by steam, hot vapors, and hot objects.
https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
-----Bonus Round: Humming Bird Battles and Ancient Science fiction
Two items caught my attention over the weekend.
My hummingbird feeders have been a disappointment this year. While I thought perhaps my homemade nectar was the issue, PBS alerted me to the fact that there may be other issues. Having now learned about how territorial hummingbirds are, I wonder what is going on in my neighborhood. Could we have had a local hummingbird revolution? Might the birds I previously saw be caught in some larger struggle for freedom and liberation? What if my hummingbirds are the villains of this story? Should I be feeding the perpetrators of hummingbird land wars?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dd86PbABNpQ
I also discovered the OG of science fiction writers, Lucian of Samosata. Like much good fiction, used created stories critical of ideas, leadership, and current events. He was probably the first to write about travel to the moon, artificial life, and extraterrestrials as a means to critique philosophy, politics, and those in power. And he did all this in the 2nd century, AD. And, it appears he inspired numerous future writers. Once again, very little is new in the realm of human ideas. I wonder where Lucian got his ideas.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucian
More info than you probably want: http://lucianofsamosata.info/wiki/doku.php?id=start
Clean hands and sharp minds,
Adam
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