Tue, August 11, 2020
Last week we listed our home for sale, and we now have a steady stream of prospective buyers. There is nothing quite like home buying - the combination of voyeurism (Who are these people? Did I hide my toothbrush?), sleight of hand (Where are the hidden flaws in my house?), and poker (Is that their best offer?). What is even more interesting is the evidence of my automatic biases. It is scary how quick I am to judge someone's likelihood of making an offer based solely on their vehicle and what little nuggets of data my agent might share. These are evidence-free conjectures that pop into my head. And yet, there they are. Pop! Like little mental Rice Krispies of assumption. I guess awareness of these automatic thoughts is the best I can do. Of course, I also hope that the beaten-up Chevy truck in my driveway is a sign of a pile of cash hoarded to buy my house.
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Latest Data
Global-View:
https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938
Nationally:
declining new cases per million in the US
stable deaths @ 3.2 per million in the US on August 8
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&areasRegional=usco&cumulative=0&logScale=0&perMillion=1&values=cases
Also, look at https://covidtracking.com/data
The US Regionally:
There is still a decline in new cases and, in more states than not, falling rates of death per million per FT data.
The NYT has the best state-level data visualization:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
About the data:
https://covidtracking.com/about-data/visualization-guide is the best resource to understand data visualization and data integrity.
-----------
Here is an article that is indicative of the problem of healthcare news. The headline is, "Mouthwashes could reduce the risk of coronavirus transmission." The article I found was on latestresearchnews.com. Their summary is of the press release from the German university in which they work. A reading of the article shows this study looked at SARS-CoV2 virus grown in cell cultures exposed to 8 different OTC German mouthwash brands in a lab setting - or as the authors put it "conditions mimicking nasopharyngeal secretions." Guess what? Viruses are inactivated by a variety of chemicals, some more than others, found in German mouthwash. Is this a reasonable paper? I guess. I would strongly advise that more analysis is needed when publicizing such work. Can you extrapolate these findings to, as the authors say, "[O]ral rinsing might reduce the viral load of saliva and could thus lower the transmission of SARS-CoV-2." You MIGHT say that. You could also say, low concentrations of chemicals in mouthwash are virucidal. Still, it is hard to know if this applies to the human nasopharynx (since we tend not to wash our nasal turbinates, distal throat, and upper airway with mouthwash). And we don't know how long this lasts. And we have no data to suggest that the post-mouthwash concentration of exhaled virus (in the form of droplets or aerosolized particles) changes. Fortunately, our collective crazy cousin Ernie has access to the press release version of the article on Facebook. Go, Ernie! Break out the Scope and take off your mask! (Scope was not part of the German study, to be precise.)
https://www.latestresearchnews.com/2020/08/10/mouthwashes-could-reduce-the-risk-of-coronavirus-transmission/
Actual article: https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa471/5878067
There are some promising case report data on aviptadil, a Vasoactive Intestinal Polypeptide (VIP), in critically ill COVID patients. As usual, the press releases on the anecdotal data look great. Of course, time and data will tell if this is yet another stock value-driving effort for the company or if this is the real deal. It appears the patients are all at Methodist Hospital in Houston, which has an outstanding clinical reputation.
https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/neurorx-relief-aviptadil-data/
and
https://nypost.com/2020/08/02/relief-neurorx-rlf-100-helps-critical-covid-19-patients/
Here is the most recent article I have found on the correlation between Vitamin D and COVID severity. PLEASE keep in mind that this does not mean one should take Vitamin D, that low Vitamin D levels cause you to get COVID or that you will have worse outcomes if you have low Vit D levels. All it says is that COVID patients in this case series were found to have low vitamin D levels, and there seemed to be a correlation between the degree of deficiency and the prognosis of the patients. Taking this from association to something more meaningful will require a lot more work. Drawing conclusions for action is one more step.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40618-020-01370-x
Here is more discussion on COVID rates in US children, this time from Dr. Hyde, an epidemiologist from Australia:
https://twitter.com/DrZoeHyde/status/1292845610752602112
Infographic of the day: I found this new vs. old dating timeline amusing.
https://flowingdata.com/2020/08/11/new-dating-timeline/
Infographic of the day #2: I am amazed at how much time was spent cataloging and diagraming things in the 19th century.
Add the internet, and we are the beneficiaries.
https://www.c82.net/mineralogy/
Enjoy British & Exotic Mineralogy
https://www.c82.net/blog/?id=84
Bonus Round: Today, I learned about...
Wine Windows of Florence. Which I did not see when I was there in 2019.
https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/florence-wine-windows
The original article on this is from 2019. Many news outlets have highlighted these windows in the last few days. (For example https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2020/08/10/restaurants-italy-are-reopening-ancient-wine-windows-used-during-plague/) While the wine windows were a byproduct of changes to Florentine alcohol sales laws in the 1500s, their utility during previous and current plagues is noted. https://www.cnn.com/style/article/little-wine-holes-buchette-florence-coronavirus/index.html
So, what did I learn? 1) We should all go back to Italy to drink wine handed to us (safely) through little windows from the 1500s. Of course, they may not let Americans in right now. 2) If you hire the right media company, you can get your article in WaPo, CNN, Smithsonian magazine, and a variety of other news websites.
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=wine+windows+of+florence+during+covid
Clean hands and sharp minds, team
-Adam
Last week we listed our home for sale, and we now have a steady stream of prospective buyers. There is nothing quite like home buying - the combination of voyeurism (Who are these people? Did I hide my toothbrush?), sleight of hand (Where are the hidden flaws in my house?), and poker (Is that their best offer?). What is even more interesting is the evidence of my automatic biases. It is scary how quick I am to judge someone's likelihood of making an offer based solely on their vehicle and what little nuggets of data my agent might share. These are evidence-free conjectures that pop into my head. And yet, there they are. Pop! Like little mental Rice Krispies of assumption. I guess awareness of these automatic thoughts is the best I can do. Of course, I also hope that the beaten-up Chevy truck in my driveway is a sign of a pile of cash hoarded to buy my house.
------
Latest Data
Global-View:
https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938
Nationally:
declining new cases per million in the US
stable deaths @ 3.2 per million in the US on August 8
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&areasRegional=usco&cumulative=0&logScale=0&perMillion=1&values=cases
Also, look at https://covidtracking.com/data
The US Regionally:
There is still a decline in new cases and, in more states than not, falling rates of death per million per FT data.
The NYT has the best state-level data visualization:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
About the data:
https://covidtracking.com/about-data/visualization-guide is the best resource to understand data visualization and data integrity.
-----------
Here is an article that is indicative of the problem of healthcare news. The headline is, "Mouthwashes could reduce the risk of coronavirus transmission." The article I found was on latestresearchnews.com. Their summary is of the press release from the German university in which they work. A reading of the article shows this study looked at SARS-CoV2 virus grown in cell cultures exposed to 8 different OTC German mouthwash brands in a lab setting - or as the authors put it "conditions mimicking nasopharyngeal secretions." Guess what? Viruses are inactivated by a variety of chemicals, some more than others, found in German mouthwash. Is this a reasonable paper? I guess. I would strongly advise that more analysis is needed when publicizing such work. Can you extrapolate these findings to, as the authors say, "[O]ral rinsing might reduce the viral load of saliva and could thus lower the transmission of SARS-CoV-2." You MIGHT say that. You could also say, low concentrations of chemicals in mouthwash are virucidal. Still, it is hard to know if this applies to the human nasopharynx (since we tend not to wash our nasal turbinates, distal throat, and upper airway with mouthwash). And we don't know how long this lasts. And we have no data to suggest that the post-mouthwash concentration of exhaled virus (in the form of droplets or aerosolized particles) changes. Fortunately, our collective crazy cousin Ernie has access to the press release version of the article on Facebook. Go, Ernie! Break out the Scope and take off your mask! (Scope was not part of the German study, to be precise.)
https://www.latestresearchnews.com/2020/08/10/mouthwashes-could-reduce-the-risk-of-coronavirus-transmission/
Actual article: https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa471/5878067
There are some promising case report data on aviptadil, a Vasoactive Intestinal Polypeptide (VIP), in critically ill COVID patients. As usual, the press releases on the anecdotal data look great. Of course, time and data will tell if this is yet another stock value-driving effort for the company or if this is the real deal. It appears the patients are all at Methodist Hospital in Houston, which has an outstanding clinical reputation.
https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/neurorx-relief-aviptadil-data/
and
https://nypost.com/2020/08/02/relief-neurorx-rlf-100-helps-critical-covid-19-patients/
Here is the most recent article I have found on the correlation between Vitamin D and COVID severity. PLEASE keep in mind that this does not mean one should take Vitamin D, that low Vitamin D levels cause you to get COVID or that you will have worse outcomes if you have low Vit D levels. All it says is that COVID patients in this case series were found to have low vitamin D levels, and there seemed to be a correlation between the degree of deficiency and the prognosis of the patients. Taking this from association to something more meaningful will require a lot more work. Drawing conclusions for action is one more step.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40618-020-01370-x
Here is more discussion on COVID rates in US children, this time from Dr. Hyde, an epidemiologist from Australia:
https://twitter.com/DrZoeHyde/status/1292845610752602112
Infographic of the day: I found this new vs. old dating timeline amusing.
https://flowingdata.com/2020/08/11/new-dating-timeline/
Infographic of the day #2: I am amazed at how much time was spent cataloging and diagraming things in the 19th century.
Add the internet, and we are the beneficiaries.
https://www.c82.net/mineralogy/
Enjoy British & Exotic Mineralogy
https://www.c82.net/blog/?id=84
Bonus Round: Today, I learned about...
Wine Windows of Florence. Which I did not see when I was there in 2019.
https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/florence-wine-windows
The original article on this is from 2019. Many news outlets have highlighted these windows in the last few days. (For example https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2020/08/10/restaurants-italy-are-reopening-ancient-wine-windows-used-during-plague/) While the wine windows were a byproduct of changes to Florentine alcohol sales laws in the 1500s, their utility during previous and current plagues is noted. https://www.cnn.com/style/article/little-wine-holes-buchette-florence-coronavirus/index.html
So, what did I learn? 1) We should all go back to Italy to drink wine handed to us (safely) through little windows from the 1500s. Of course, they may not let Americans in right now. 2) If you hire the right media company, you can get your article in WaPo, CNN, Smithsonian magazine, and a variety of other news websites.
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=wine+windows+of+florence+during+covid
Clean hands and sharp minds, team
-Adam
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