August 3, 2020
Monday
The words "liberal" and "conservative" have evolved throughout history. Edmund Burke, a politically conservative Whig, wrote about how the French Revolution destroyed societal institutions and political tradition. William Jennings Bryan was a liberal democrat in the early 20th century who focused on economic policies that supported small farmers and tried to slow American imperialism. The more recent uses of conservative and liberal, however, feel very disconnected from any greater philosophy. Data obfuscation, science denial, and a poorly coordinated national response to a pandemic have no philosophic justification.
-------Latest Data
http://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-04-16..&country=USA~GBR~CAN~BRA~AUS~IND~DEU~FRA~ITA~SWE&deathsMetric=true&dailyFreq=true&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7
FT data - the second graph down now has state-level data - I suggest setting it to cases, per million, linear, and add your state to the highlighted list.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths
The NY Times has hotspot map is an excellent quick glace of rolling 2-week case change: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
State Details:
https://public.tableau.com/views/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/2_Corona?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
Rt data: https://rt.live/
COVID risk by US county: https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/
Estimate your risk of exposure to a COVID positive person based on your county and the size of gathering: https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/
Each of the above sites reports its source data. Please review sources like https://covidtracking.com/ to understand the quality of that data.
-----
Cases are leveling out in the "hotspot" states, but the deaths (a lagging indicator) are still rising. The reported new cases are still 50-60K per day in the US. AND, data is now more sporadically reported in FL, TX, and other southern states.
Data from the COVID tracking project yesterday: https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1290055232555114496
and
https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1289950026014261249
Coffee read of the day: The COVID Tracking Project offered this analysis of COVID [Wave 1 part 2 or Wave 2, depending on how you see it]. As we have discussed, it appears hospitalizations and deaths are not matching those in early March. It may be that our testing has improved enough to pick up cases earlier. And, we will see similar rates for both hospitalization and death.
https://covidtracking.com/blog/floridas-per-capita-covid-19-cases-just-surpassed-new-yorks
Here is an article on using the excess mortality rate to get a sense of the pandemic's impact: https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/03/measuring-excess-mortality-gives-clearer-picture-pandemics-true-burden/
The Financial Times has a separate website on excess mortality https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938
There was a lot of talk about the early data from vaccine trials this weekend. There were numerous discussions, including a call to move right from phase 2 to widespread use (skipping phase 3) and the multiple comments of what a bad idea this is. The Washington Post offers this article designed to align expectations with reality:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/08/02/covid-vaccine/
or, for those of you looking for a more bite-sized read, here is a twitter discussion :
https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1289971460782477313
Here is the Forbes opinion piece which set off the discussion:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevensalzberg/2020/08/02/start-vaccinating-now/ (Dr. Salzberg is a reputable scientist, but appears his opinion is out of step with others in the community on this issue).
Here is an interesting article about impressions of data vs. the data itself. Fear of crime is disproportionate to the actual crime happening. Crime rates are falling. But, crime is often about confidence. It only takes a few news stories or a few second-hand reports to create fear.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/many-americans-are-convinced-crime-is-rising-in-the-u-s-theyre-wrong/
StatNews offered a profile of the company coordinating drive-thru COVID testing. It seems like they are doing their best, but certainly finding opportunity in crisis. https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/03/etruenorth-tiny-company-running-covid-19-company/
One last discussion of note - an interesting set of thoughts on the need for cheap, low specificity, high sensitivity testing - i.e., trading off more false positives to capture more true positives so they can quickly be isolated. This notion is more of a thought experiment, but using different tests for different purposes is an excellent way to spend a bit of mental energy.
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1289974450650140672?s=10
Infographic of the day: Happy International Watermelon Day!
https://twitter.com/compoundchem/status/1290188151097421826/photo/1
Compound Chemistry notes their infographic has been the focus of cross-posts regarding a Harry Styles' song (you can find that one yourself - hint hint, I suspect it is not really about watermelon).
---- Bonus Round: Bossa Nova and people named Gilberto
I found this fascinating article on the song The Girl from Ipanema. It touches on the rich history of Bossa Nova and the overlap with jazz.
http://www.openculture.com/2020/07/why-the-girl-from-ipanema-is-a-richer-weirder-song-than-you-ever-realized.html
This article linked me to a page reminding me that Joao Gilberto died in 2019. (I did not realize he was alive that long!)
http://www.openculture.com/2019/07/remembering-the-father-of-bossa-nova-joao-gilberto-with-four-classic-live-performances.html
While I like Bossa Nova, I prefer the more modern interpretation of Belbel Gilberto, Joao's daughter. If you need some catchy Bossa Nova in your life check out https://open.spotify.com/artist/6gk4ierjjSVPoZep27VfZz
Clean hands and sharp minds,
Adam
The words "liberal" and "conservative" have evolved throughout history. Edmund Burke, a politically conservative Whig, wrote about how the French Revolution destroyed societal institutions and political tradition. William Jennings Bryan was a liberal democrat in the early 20th century who focused on economic policies that supported small farmers and tried to slow American imperialism. The more recent uses of conservative and liberal, however, feel very disconnected from any greater philosophy. Data obfuscation, science denial, and a poorly coordinated national response to a pandemic have no philosophic justification.
-------Latest Data
http://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-04-16..&country=USA~GBR~CAN~BRA~AUS~IND~DEU~FRA~ITA~SWE&deathsMetric=true&dailyFreq=true&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7
FT data - the second graph down now has state-level data - I suggest setting it to cases, per million, linear, and add your state to the highlighted list.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths
The NY Times has hotspot map is an excellent quick glace of rolling 2-week case change: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
State Details:
https://public.tableau.com/views/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/2_Corona?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
Rt data: https://rt.live/
COVID risk by US county: https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/
Estimate your risk of exposure to a COVID positive person based on your county and the size of gathering: https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/
Each of the above sites reports its source data. Please review sources like https://covidtracking.com/ to understand the quality of that data.
-----
Cases are leveling out in the "hotspot" states, but the deaths (a lagging indicator) are still rising. The reported new cases are still 50-60K per day in the US. AND, data is now more sporadically reported in FL, TX, and other southern states.
Data from the COVID tracking project yesterday: https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1290055232555114496
and
https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1289950026014261249
Coffee read of the day: The COVID Tracking Project offered this analysis of COVID [Wave 1 part 2 or Wave 2, depending on how you see it]. As we have discussed, it appears hospitalizations and deaths are not matching those in early March. It may be that our testing has improved enough to pick up cases earlier. And, we will see similar rates for both hospitalization and death.
https://covidtracking.com/blog/floridas-per-capita-covid-19-cases-just-surpassed-new-yorks
Here is an article on using the excess mortality rate to get a sense of the pandemic's impact: https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/03/measuring-excess-mortality-gives-clearer-picture-pandemics-true-burden/
The Financial Times has a separate website on excess mortality https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938
There was a lot of talk about the early data from vaccine trials this weekend. There were numerous discussions, including a call to move right from phase 2 to widespread use (skipping phase 3) and the multiple comments of what a bad idea this is. The Washington Post offers this article designed to align expectations with reality:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/08/02/covid-vaccine/
or, for those of you looking for a more bite-sized read, here is a twitter discussion :
https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1289971460782477313
Here is the Forbes opinion piece which set off the discussion:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevensalzberg/2020/08/02/start-vaccinating-now/ (Dr. Salzberg is a reputable scientist, but appears his opinion is out of step with others in the community on this issue).
Here is an interesting article about impressions of data vs. the data itself. Fear of crime is disproportionate to the actual crime happening. Crime rates are falling. But, crime is often about confidence. It only takes a few news stories or a few second-hand reports to create fear.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/many-americans-are-convinced-crime-is-rising-in-the-u-s-theyre-wrong/
StatNews offered a profile of the company coordinating drive-thru COVID testing. It seems like they are doing their best, but certainly finding opportunity in crisis. https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/03/etruenorth-tiny-company-running-covid-19-company/
One last discussion of note - an interesting set of thoughts on the need for cheap, low specificity, high sensitivity testing - i.e., trading off more false positives to capture more true positives so they can quickly be isolated. This notion is more of a thought experiment, but using different tests for different purposes is an excellent way to spend a bit of mental energy.
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1289974450650140672?s=10
Infographic of the day: Happy International Watermelon Day!
https://twitter.com/compoundchem/status/1290188151097421826/photo/1
Compound Chemistry notes their infographic has been the focus of cross-posts regarding a Harry Styles' song (you can find that one yourself - hint hint, I suspect it is not really about watermelon).
---- Bonus Round: Bossa Nova and people named Gilberto
I found this fascinating article on the song The Girl from Ipanema. It touches on the rich history of Bossa Nova and the overlap with jazz.
http://www.openculture.com/2020/07/why-the-girl-from-ipanema-is-a-richer-weirder-song-than-you-ever-realized.html
This article linked me to a page reminding me that Joao Gilberto died in 2019. (I did not realize he was alive that long!)
http://www.openculture.com/2019/07/remembering-the-father-of-bossa-nova-joao-gilberto-with-four-classic-live-performances.html
While I like Bossa Nova, I prefer the more modern interpretation of Belbel Gilberto, Joao's daughter. If you need some catchy Bossa Nova in your life check out https://open.spotify.com/artist/6gk4ierjjSVPoZep27VfZz
Clean hands and sharp minds,
Adam
Comments
Post a Comment