October 19, 2020 - Monday
Our move is a month-long affair, akin to a staged mission to Mars. First goes habitat stuff, then goes essentials; we land in our new house in early November. Since I am in the habitat phase, I spent Sunday in our empty new home, just me, tools, and the new TV. I opted to use our new TV - listening to cable news in place of an audiobook or podcast. This choice was a tactical error. The commercials seeped into my head as I worked. Gloves with woven copper for "these times." Over-the-counter meds for energy/hair loss/libido. Solicitations to save wild tigers. And, of course, the admonition to speak to your doctor about whether [evocatively named] prescription drug for [hyper-precise cardiac, dermatologic or pulmonary diagnosis] is "right for you." What was striking was how the news content and commercials all blended. The pacing, volume, and urgency were the same. Compared to the news content, however, the commercials were more upbeat and transparent about the long list of possible side effects. One day, I hope I am as happy and fulfilled as the actors in the drug commercials.
-----Latest Data---
Case rates trending up in many states and parts of the world
Death rates still stable - remember it is often a 2+ week lagging indicator. The US is now diagnosing 55,000 new cases per day (7-day rolling average) and is stable at 675-700 deaths per day (7-day rolling average).
Global-View:
https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938
Nationally:
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&areasRegional=usco&cumulative=0&logScale=0&perMillion=1&values=cases
Also, look at https://covidtracking.com/data
The US Regionally - NY. Times:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
About the data:
https://covidtracking.com/about-data/visualization-guide is the best resource to understand data visualization and data integrity.
----
The COVID tracking project weekly blog post from Friday is a detailed review to start with:
https://covidtracking.com/blog/weekly-update-oct-15
Thanks to various events and "beliefs," rural America is currently taking the brunt of the 3rd wave of COVID. But, the uncontrolled viral spread will cross state borders. Josh Michaud, Associate Director of Global Health at the Kaiser Family Foundation, pulled some data together:
https://twitter.com/joshmich/status/1317838125939511297?s=21
There are still so many unknowns about coronavirus. I think it is worth bringing up the latest discussions on re-infection. The NY Times published an article on the rarity of documented re-infections last week. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/health/coronavirus-reinfection.html
Dr. Mote, an applied mathematician from the Univ. of Maryland who focuses on COVID, shared some thoughts around how we don't know how rare re-infection is. https://twitter.com/safamote/status/1316533885040308224?s=10
Here's the bottom line: we don't know how long or how robust post-COVID immunity is. It appears re-infection is possible. However, the severity and timing of recurrent illness may be highly variable. As such, social distancing and wearing a mask will offer the best protection for you and those you care about until we know more.
I found this interesting pre-release article out of Columbia University on the survival benefit of receiving melatonin post-intubation for COVID patients. It is a very detailed, retrospective analysis looking at a wide range of covariates. The data associating a survival advantage to the use of melatonin is striking.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.15.20213546v1
I would be cautious in drawing too much of a conclusion, but this is worthy of further exploration. Watch out though, the creep that occurs when this type of article is released causes two camps to form: 1) the "see I told you it was a conspiracy and data on cheap, OTC treatments are being suppressed" crowd. And 2) "Go get melatonin and take gobs of it before exposure, after exposure, for any symptom, etc." crowd. Remember - this study looked at intubated, critically ill patients—no one else.
https://twitter.com/Covid19Crusher/status/1317932508449808384
Infographic of the day: The World's Smallest Countries
Always good to have this information on hand when looking for banal topics to fill dead conversation space. "Did you know Grenada is the 11th smallest country in the world? It is a chain of islands, and was the focus of the 1983 US military action?"
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-100-smallest-countries/
Bonus Round: Julia Child's next-door neighbor
I found this article from August on Julia Child's next-door neighbor, Barbara Ketcham Wheaton. Wheaton, her husband, and sons have spent 50 years curating a collection of old cookbooks, an interest that started while she was housesitting for Childs. But there is far more to the story. The article is a fascinating exploration of gender, culture, and bias.
https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/how-to-find-historic-cookbooks. By the way, her website is called The Sifter
https://thesifter.org/ It is a searchable database of cookbooks from across history.
And while you are exploring the above topics, why not prepare a delicate Roman dish from Apicus's 2000 year-old cookbook.
http://www.gutenberg.org/files/29728/29728-h/29728-h.htm
I highly recommend reviewing Book IV, Chapter 4, Porridges, and Gruels.
http://www.gutenberg.org/files/29728/29728-h/29728-h.htm#bkiv_chiv
Or, Book 1, Chapter 9 on preserving fried fish (though I doubt for 2000 years).
http://www.gutenberg.org/files/29728/29728-h/29728-h.htm#bki_chix
Clean hands and sharp minds,
Adam
Our move is a month-long affair, akin to a staged mission to Mars. First goes habitat stuff, then goes essentials; we land in our new house in early November. Since I am in the habitat phase, I spent Sunday in our empty new home, just me, tools, and the new TV. I opted to use our new TV - listening to cable news in place of an audiobook or podcast. This choice was a tactical error. The commercials seeped into my head as I worked. Gloves with woven copper for "these times." Over-the-counter meds for energy/hair loss/libido. Solicitations to save wild tigers. And, of course, the admonition to speak to your doctor about whether [evocatively named] prescription drug for [hyper-precise cardiac, dermatologic or pulmonary diagnosis] is "right for you." What was striking was how the news content and commercials all blended. The pacing, volume, and urgency were the same. Compared to the news content, however, the commercials were more upbeat and transparent about the long list of possible side effects. One day, I hope I am as happy and fulfilled as the actors in the drug commercials.
-----Latest Data---
Case rates trending up in many states and parts of the world
Death rates still stable - remember it is often a 2+ week lagging indicator. The US is now diagnosing 55,000 new cases per day (7-day rolling average) and is stable at 675-700 deaths per day (7-day rolling average).
Global-View:
https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938
Nationally:
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&areasRegional=usco&cumulative=0&logScale=0&perMillion=1&values=cases
Also, look at https://covidtracking.com/data
The US Regionally - NY. Times:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
About the data:
https://covidtracking.com/about-data/visualization-guide is the best resource to understand data visualization and data integrity.
----
The COVID tracking project weekly blog post from Friday is a detailed review to start with:
https://covidtracking.com/blog/weekly-update-oct-15
Thanks to various events and "beliefs," rural America is currently taking the brunt of the 3rd wave of COVID. But, the uncontrolled viral spread will cross state borders. Josh Michaud, Associate Director of Global Health at the Kaiser Family Foundation, pulled some data together:
https://twitter.com/joshmich/status/1317838125939511297?s=21
There are still so many unknowns about coronavirus. I think it is worth bringing up the latest discussions on re-infection. The NY Times published an article on the rarity of documented re-infections last week. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/health/coronavirus-reinfection.html
Dr. Mote, an applied mathematician from the Univ. of Maryland who focuses on COVID, shared some thoughts around how we don't know how rare re-infection is. https://twitter.com/safamote/status/1316533885040308224?s=10
Here's the bottom line: we don't know how long or how robust post-COVID immunity is. It appears re-infection is possible. However, the severity and timing of recurrent illness may be highly variable. As such, social distancing and wearing a mask will offer the best protection for you and those you care about until we know more.
I found this interesting pre-release article out of Columbia University on the survival benefit of receiving melatonin post-intubation for COVID patients. It is a very detailed, retrospective analysis looking at a wide range of covariates. The data associating a survival advantage to the use of melatonin is striking.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.15.20213546v1
I would be cautious in drawing too much of a conclusion, but this is worthy of further exploration. Watch out though, the creep that occurs when this type of article is released causes two camps to form: 1) the "see I told you it was a conspiracy and data on cheap, OTC treatments are being suppressed" crowd. And 2) "Go get melatonin and take gobs of it before exposure, after exposure, for any symptom, etc." crowd. Remember - this study looked at intubated, critically ill patients—no one else.
https://twitter.com/Covid19Crusher/status/1317932508449808384
Infographic of the day: The World's Smallest Countries
Always good to have this information on hand when looking for banal topics to fill dead conversation space. "Did you know Grenada is the 11th smallest country in the world? It is a chain of islands, and was the focus of the 1983 US military action?"
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-100-smallest-countries/
Bonus Round: Julia Child's next-door neighbor
I found this article from August on Julia Child's next-door neighbor, Barbara Ketcham Wheaton. Wheaton, her husband, and sons have spent 50 years curating a collection of old cookbooks, an interest that started while she was housesitting for Childs. But there is far more to the story. The article is a fascinating exploration of gender, culture, and bias.
https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/how-to-find-historic-cookbooks. By the way, her website is called The Sifter
https://thesifter.org/ It is a searchable database of cookbooks from across history.
And while you are exploring the above topics, why not prepare a delicate Roman dish from Apicus's 2000 year-old cookbook.
http://www.gutenberg.org/files/29728/29728-h/29728-h.htm
I highly recommend reviewing Book IV, Chapter 4, Porridges, and Gruels.
http://www.gutenberg.org/files/29728/29728-h/29728-h.htm#bkiv_chiv
Or, Book 1, Chapter 9 on preserving fried fish (though I doubt for 2000 years).
http://www.gutenberg.org/files/29728/29728-h/29728-h.htm#bki_chix
Clean hands and sharp minds,
Adam
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