Monday, February 8, 2021
My tendency to extrapolate trends from small data sets was evident this weekend. I entered the weekend upbeat - 85% of my Friday clinic patients had (or had scheduled) vaccine doses without my prompting. My inner voice was cheering, despite the non-random sample of humans represented by my clinic schedule. Then my older son and I binged Seinfeld season 1 (from 1990‽), and I faced a series of Superbowl performers I did not recognize. My in-head narrator reminded me I, too, once had a curly mullet and pleated jeans. In 1990. While hopeful and old are not mutually exclusive, there was undoubtedly more data pointing toward old. At least Seinfeld is still entertaining.
-----Latest Data---
Case and Death rates continue to fall. But there are still many people dying - 3000 per day in the U.S. and 900 per day in the U.K. (7-day rolling averages). Vaccination rates, however, are rising.
Global-View:
https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938
Nationally:
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&areasRegional=usco&cumulative=0&logScale=0&perMillion=1&values=casesf
Also, look at https://covidtracking.com/data
The U.S. Regionally - N.Y. Times:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
About the data:
https://covidtracking.com/about-data/visualization-guide is the best resource to understand data visualization and data integrity.
Vaccine Tracker
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
-----
The COVID Tracking Project's blog post from Friday is a good round-up of last week's data, including some analysis of the fluctuations we see in the daily data updates. I note the project will be shutting down on March 7, 2021.
https://covidtracking.com/analysis-updates/numbers-are-high-but-improving-this-week-in-covid-19-data-feb-4
There continues to be good news, tempered by some concerning data. The newest vaccines to market demonstrate protection from death and hospitalization with a single dose.
https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1356079020878786561
with some caveats
https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1358539996119056384
However, the vaccines seem to be less effective in preventing mild to moderate infection from the latest coronavirus varients.
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1358468531986210817
There are increasing amounts of data indicating there is a reduction in transmission potential amongst vaccinated adults. Transmission is likely related to viral load. One way to impute viral load is through quantitative PCR (qPCR) testing, looking at the threshold cycle (Ct) - or a relative concentration of viral particles in the PCR sample. While it is not a perfect indicator, a lab in Israel that does a large number of qPCR tests is noting fewer viral particles in samples from patients who have received at least one dose of vaccine.
https://twitter.com/erlichya/status/1358477746033295364?s=20
as a point of reference on viral load:
https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1356872779681976321
Remember - the newer strains are more transmissible at a lower viral load and may evade immune defenses acquired after actual infection earlier in 2020.
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1358065355785134083?s=10
Takeaways: get vaccinated ASAP but, expect a booster in the future. The data continues to support that vaccines protect against death and hospitalization, even with the new variants.
Infographic of the day: Pernicious Periodic Tables
I have a part-time fascination with the use of the periodic table structure to display alternative information. It is remarkable how outside of the atomic elements, using the table detracts from understanding. That doesn't keep us from trying -
http://www.compoundchem.com/2019advent/
For example, I can think of > 1 billion better ways to share that Nitrogen and Gold are the most searched for elements with Google
https://www.compoundchem.com/2019advent/day4/
----Bonus Round - Sartorial Epiphanies
I had another random moment of clarity this weekend. I realized that there are numerous types of suspenders for men's clothes. And they have names and histories. I have never seen this information gathered in one place.
Suspenders to hold pants up (braces in the old-timey parlance)
https://therake.com/stories/style/history-of-braces/
Straps to pull shirts down
https://www.realmenrealstyle.com/dress-shirt-stays-hidden-wrinkle-protection/ (which features an ad offering you to smell like 007!)
Suspenders to hold socks up
https://witness2fashion.wordpress.com/2016/12/10/sock-suspenders-garters-for-men/
Garters to hold sleeves up (the sleeve garter)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeve_garter
The image of combining all of the above into a single outfit brought me much amusement. I also have renewed gratitude for elastic, spandex blends, and off-the-rack clothing that fits.
Clean hands and sharp minds, team
Adam
My tendency to extrapolate trends from small data sets was evident this weekend. I entered the weekend upbeat - 85% of my Friday clinic patients had (or had scheduled) vaccine doses without my prompting. My inner voice was cheering, despite the non-random sample of humans represented by my clinic schedule. Then my older son and I binged Seinfeld season 1 (from 1990‽), and I faced a series of Superbowl performers I did not recognize. My in-head narrator reminded me I, too, once had a curly mullet and pleated jeans. In 1990. While hopeful and old are not mutually exclusive, there was undoubtedly more data pointing toward old. At least Seinfeld is still entertaining.
-----Latest Data---
Case and Death rates continue to fall. But there are still many people dying - 3000 per day in the U.S. and 900 per day in the U.K. (7-day rolling averages). Vaccination rates, however, are rising.
Global-View:
https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938
Nationally:
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&areasRegional=usco&cumulative=0&logScale=0&perMillion=1&values=casesf
Also, look at https://covidtracking.com/data
The U.S. Regionally - N.Y. Times:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
About the data:
https://covidtracking.com/about-data/visualization-guide is the best resource to understand data visualization and data integrity.
Vaccine Tracker
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
-----
The COVID Tracking Project's blog post from Friday is a good round-up of last week's data, including some analysis of the fluctuations we see in the daily data updates. I note the project will be shutting down on March 7, 2021.
https://covidtracking.com/analysis-updates/numbers-are-high-but-improving-this-week-in-covid-19-data-feb-4
There continues to be good news, tempered by some concerning data. The newest vaccines to market demonstrate protection from death and hospitalization with a single dose.
https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1356079020878786561
with some caveats
https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1358539996119056384
However, the vaccines seem to be less effective in preventing mild to moderate infection from the latest coronavirus varients.
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1358468531986210817
There are increasing amounts of data indicating there is a reduction in transmission potential amongst vaccinated adults. Transmission is likely related to viral load. One way to impute viral load is through quantitative PCR (qPCR) testing, looking at the threshold cycle (Ct) - or a relative concentration of viral particles in the PCR sample. While it is not a perfect indicator, a lab in Israel that does a large number of qPCR tests is noting fewer viral particles in samples from patients who have received at least one dose of vaccine.
https://twitter.com/erlichya/status/1358477746033295364?s=20
as a point of reference on viral load:
https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1356872779681976321
Remember - the newer strains are more transmissible at a lower viral load and may evade immune defenses acquired after actual infection earlier in 2020.
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1358065355785134083?s=10
Takeaways: get vaccinated ASAP but, expect a booster in the future. The data continues to support that vaccines protect against death and hospitalization, even with the new variants.
Infographic of the day: Pernicious Periodic Tables
I have a part-time fascination with the use of the periodic table structure to display alternative information. It is remarkable how outside of the atomic elements, using the table detracts from understanding. That doesn't keep us from trying -
http://www.compoundchem.com/2019advent/
For example, I can think of > 1 billion better ways to share that Nitrogen and Gold are the most searched for elements with Google
https://www.compoundchem.com/2019advent/day4/
----Bonus Round - Sartorial Epiphanies
I had another random moment of clarity this weekend. I realized that there are numerous types of suspenders for men's clothes. And they have names and histories. I have never seen this information gathered in one place.
Suspenders to hold pants up (braces in the old-timey parlance)
https://therake.com/stories/style/history-of-braces/
Straps to pull shirts down
https://www.realmenrealstyle.com/dress-shirt-stays-hidden-wrinkle-protection/ (which features an ad offering you to smell like 007!)
Suspenders to hold socks up
https://witness2fashion.wordpress.com/2016/12/10/sock-suspenders-garters-for-men/
Garters to hold sleeves up (the sleeve garter)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeve_garter
The image of combining all of the above into a single outfit brought me much amusement. I also have renewed gratitude for elastic, spandex blends, and off-the-rack clothing that fits.
Clean hands and sharp minds, team
Adam
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