Thursday, March 4, 2021
Discussions about the proposals to reopen my kid's school to on-campus learning have further churned the mix of hope and caution I am feeling these days. The plans are tentative, based on 100% vaccination of the teachers and staff, will require universal masking, and will flex based on the community's COVID prevalence later in the spring. For me, these plans are an appropriate and uncomfortable sign of careful next steps, using the best available knowledge. I need words for this mélange. Eager caution? Uncertain expectancy? Apprehensive optimism? I think the prevalence and vaccination data in 4-6 weeks will be most comforting.
-----Latest Data---
I note the vaccination 7-day rolling average is now at 2.01 million with 80 million doses administered (52.9 million with one dose and 27 million with two doses).
Global-View:
https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938
Nationally:
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&areasRegional=usco&cumulative=0&logScale=0&perMillion=1&values=casesf
Also, look at https://covidtracking.com/data
The U.S. Regionally - N.Y. Times:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
About the data:
https://covidtracking.com/about-data/visualization-guide is the best resource to understand data visualization and data integrity.
Vaccine Tracker
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
-----
The extensive international network of clinicians and scientists set up in March 2020 to test various COVID-19 therapies does not have enough patients. That is good. Nevertheless, it is inspiring reading about the network and what it has been able to accomplish.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/03/international-megatrial-coronavirus-treatments-standstill
More on the use of digital vaccination "passports." I strongly suspect this will, in one form or another, be a thing.
https://www.fox5ny.com/news/ny-testing-covid-passport
Here is some background on my apprehensive optimism. There is a tension in adequately projecting the near future. It is hard to blend the currently decreasing case rates and death rates with the uncertainty brought about by variants of SARS-CoV-2 moving through a mixed population of vaccinated, previously infected, and immune-naive hosts.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-variants-insight/when-will-it-end-how-a-changing-virus-is-reshaping-scientists-views-on-covid-19-idUSKBN2AV1T1
It is an excellent time to play with the IHME website
https://covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=infections-testing&tab=trend&test=infections
This next part is a lot but sums up my mix of feelings these days.
Here are some pre-print (not peer-reviewed) data from South Africa on the NVX-CoV2373, the protein subunit vaccine. These data demonstrated that patients exposed to the B.1.351 (South African) variant are protected against severe infection, irrespective of HIV status (this is important). Nevertheless, the vaccine offers less protection than it did against other, previously more SARS-CoV2 variants. It is this kind of data driving the apprehension in my apprehensive optimism.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.25.21252477v1
Practical discussion on this article
https://twitter.com/hildabast/status/1367224108065255424
But wait - there is more. Moderna is responding rapidly - giving me the optimism in my apprehensive optimism. We opposable-thumbed monkeys can adapt too.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210224006083/en/
Read this thread
https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1367179845604503554
Infographic of the day - Learn Etruscan
Upcoming ancient civilization-themed wedding or event? Perhaps just a friendly get-together with your neighborhood classics professors for cocktails? When it is time to learn pre-Latin languages from the Italian peninsula, I turn to https://digitalmapsoftheancientworld.com/languages/etruscan/
This website has all your Etruscan language needs, from dictionaries to fonts for your Windows or macOS devices.
It turns out there are a ton of resources around the web on this one:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Etruscan_language
https://app.memrise.com/course/341738/etruscan/
https://www.khanacademy.org/humanities/ap-art-history/ancient-mediterranean-ap/ap-ancient-etruria/a/the-etruscans-an-introduction
------ Bonus Round - History of Medicine Thoughts, Day 4
One central theme of these emails is how interdependent and iterative ideas, discoveries, and progress is. Two stories stand out in my mind (recognizing these are my favorite and not necessarily the best).
We are now in an age of immune-modulated cancer therapy. But getting to this point is a complex story. I strongly recommend reading the history of Sidney Farber and the treatment of cancer. He is the "founder" of chemotherapy but managed to combine outstanding bench-top research with frontline clinical care, mixed with strong advocacy for his specialty. It is a fantastic story that illustrates how a cross-functional approach to care yields dividends well beyond the investment.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sidney_Farber
I strongly recommend the book from 2011 Pulitzer-Prize winning book on this topic:
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/7170627-the-emperor-of-all-maladies
Roman military medicine reached its peak between 50 and 200 A.D. In fact, for a soldier, you could not get similar battlefield care until World War One. Seriously. Amongst the many things Roman military medicine pioneered, I think the most important for saving lives included:
rapidly attending to wounded soldiers on the battlefield;
recognized the importance of arresting bleeding;
safely extracting missile weapons;
vascular suturing;
hygienic post-surgical wound management;
and essential public health measures in building their field hospitals. All these were before humans understood germ theory and modern physiology. The routinized distribution of knowledge facilitated these advancements. "The Romans' incorporation of most of the then "known world" into the empire expanded the store of knowledge upon which Roman physicians could draw for new drugs and clinical techniques. Thus, Roman medicine [even] borrowed Indian surgical techniques, including plastic surgery and cataract removal." Even 2000 years ago, the sharing of knowledge was critical to good care.
For some not-so-light reading on this (And for the quote from page 174), check out Gabriel, Richard - Man and Wound in the Ancient World: A History of Military Medicine from Sumer to the Fall of Constantinople.
Clean hands and sharp minds,
Adam
I'll be back on Monday.
Discussions about the proposals to reopen my kid's school to on-campus learning have further churned the mix of hope and caution I am feeling these days. The plans are tentative, based on 100% vaccination of the teachers and staff, will require universal masking, and will flex based on the community's COVID prevalence later in the spring. For me, these plans are an appropriate and uncomfortable sign of careful next steps, using the best available knowledge. I need words for this mélange. Eager caution? Uncertain expectancy? Apprehensive optimism? I think the prevalence and vaccination data in 4-6 weeks will be most comforting.
-----Latest Data---
I note the vaccination 7-day rolling average is now at 2.01 million with 80 million doses administered (52.9 million with one dose and 27 million with two doses).
Global-View:
https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938
Nationally:
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&areasRegional=usco&cumulative=0&logScale=0&perMillion=1&values=casesf
Also, look at https://covidtracking.com/data
The U.S. Regionally - N.Y. Times:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
About the data:
https://covidtracking.com/about-data/visualization-guide is the best resource to understand data visualization and data integrity.
Vaccine Tracker
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
-----
The extensive international network of clinicians and scientists set up in March 2020 to test various COVID-19 therapies does not have enough patients. That is good. Nevertheless, it is inspiring reading about the network and what it has been able to accomplish.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/03/international-megatrial-coronavirus-treatments-standstill
More on the use of digital vaccination "passports." I strongly suspect this will, in one form or another, be a thing.
https://www.fox5ny.com/news/ny-testing-covid-passport
Here is some background on my apprehensive optimism. There is a tension in adequately projecting the near future. It is hard to blend the currently decreasing case rates and death rates with the uncertainty brought about by variants of SARS-CoV-2 moving through a mixed population of vaccinated, previously infected, and immune-naive hosts.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-variants-insight/when-will-it-end-how-a-changing-virus-is-reshaping-scientists-views-on-covid-19-idUSKBN2AV1T1
It is an excellent time to play with the IHME website
https://covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=infections-testing&tab=trend&test=infections
This next part is a lot but sums up my mix of feelings these days.
Here are some pre-print (not peer-reviewed) data from South Africa on the NVX-CoV2373, the protein subunit vaccine. These data demonstrated that patients exposed to the B.1.351 (South African) variant are protected against severe infection, irrespective of HIV status (this is important). Nevertheless, the vaccine offers less protection than it did against other, previously more SARS-CoV2 variants. It is this kind of data driving the apprehension in my apprehensive optimism.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.25.21252477v1
Practical discussion on this article
https://twitter.com/hildabast/status/1367224108065255424
But wait - there is more. Moderna is responding rapidly - giving me the optimism in my apprehensive optimism. We opposable-thumbed monkeys can adapt too.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210224006083/en/
Read this thread
https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1367179845604503554
Infographic of the day - Learn Etruscan
Upcoming ancient civilization-themed wedding or event? Perhaps just a friendly get-together with your neighborhood classics professors for cocktails? When it is time to learn pre-Latin languages from the Italian peninsula, I turn to https://digitalmapsoftheancientworld.com/languages/etruscan/
This website has all your Etruscan language needs, from dictionaries to fonts for your Windows or macOS devices.
It turns out there are a ton of resources around the web on this one:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Etruscan_language
https://app.memrise.com/course/341738/etruscan/
https://www.khanacademy.org/humanities/ap-art-history/ancient-mediterranean-ap/ap-ancient-etruria/a/the-etruscans-an-introduction
------ Bonus Round - History of Medicine Thoughts, Day 4
One central theme of these emails is how interdependent and iterative ideas, discoveries, and progress is. Two stories stand out in my mind (recognizing these are my favorite and not necessarily the best).
We are now in an age of immune-modulated cancer therapy. But getting to this point is a complex story. I strongly recommend reading the history of Sidney Farber and the treatment of cancer. He is the "founder" of chemotherapy but managed to combine outstanding bench-top research with frontline clinical care, mixed with strong advocacy for his specialty. It is a fantastic story that illustrates how a cross-functional approach to care yields dividends well beyond the investment.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sidney_Farber
I strongly recommend the book from 2011 Pulitzer-Prize winning book on this topic:
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/7170627-the-emperor-of-all-maladies
Roman military medicine reached its peak between 50 and 200 A.D. In fact, for a soldier, you could not get similar battlefield care until World War One. Seriously. Amongst the many things Roman military medicine pioneered, I think the most important for saving lives included:
rapidly attending to wounded soldiers on the battlefield;
recognized the importance of arresting bleeding;
safely extracting missile weapons;
vascular suturing;
hygienic post-surgical wound management;
and essential public health measures in building their field hospitals. All these were before humans understood germ theory and modern physiology. The routinized distribution of knowledge facilitated these advancements. "The Romans' incorporation of most of the then "known world" into the empire expanded the store of knowledge upon which Roman physicians could draw for new drugs and clinical techniques. Thus, Roman medicine [even] borrowed Indian surgical techniques, including plastic surgery and cataract removal." Even 2000 years ago, the sharing of knowledge was critical to good care.
For some not-so-light reading on this (And for the quote from page 174), check out Gabriel, Richard - Man and Wound in the Ancient World: A History of Military Medicine from Sumer to the Fall of Constantinople.
Clean hands and sharp minds,
Adam
I'll be back on Monday.
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