Thursday, April 8, 2021
On mornings when I find more coffee on me than in me, I wonder if I missed the age at which I spilled least. My years of "peak beverage handling" were (clearly) somewhere less than age 46 and more than, say, age 3. At least as measured by spilling drinks on myself, I firmly believe I have passed the peak on a parabola of decrepitude. It is increasingly evident I qualify for an adult sippy cup.
-----Latest Data---
The case, death, and hospitalization data are more nuanced over the last few weeks. While hospitalizations are rising nationally (~ +5%), they appear driven by regional increasing case rates. Death rates are still falling, but we know deaths lag case rates by two weeks. More below on the segments of vaccinated individuals not contributing to these statistics.
CDC National Hospitalization trend data
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#hospitalizations
Global-View:
https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938
Nationally:
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&areasRegional=usco&cumulative=0&logScale=0&perMillion=1&values=casesf
The U.S. Regionally - N.Y. Times:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
Vaccine Tracker
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends
-----
The vaccine delivered so far has positively impacted some of the highest risk groups, making the data above a bit more confusing to interpret. Nevertheless, I sincerely hope we see a blunted 4th wave as a result.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/06/covid-19-cases-deaths-vaccinations-daily-update.html
and
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/546790-cdc-almost-80-percent-teachers-childcare-workers-received-at-least-one
Here is a pre-release, not peer-reviewed, paper looking at the 14-day county-level COVID-19 rates for counties that hosted NFL football games with and without fan attendance.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3805754
They found "counties where teams had 20,000 fans in attendance [had a] 2.23 times the rate of spikes in COVID-19 compared to all other teams."
and
"[T]he presence of fans at NFL home games during the 2020/2021 season led to increased levels of COVID-19 cases and rates both in the counties in which the venues are nested within, and the surrounding counties in which fans likely travel from to attend."
Mandatory vaccination requirements are grounded in precedent. I am not surprised to see a university require this.
https://news.nd.edu/news/notre-dame-to-require-students-to-be-vaccinated-for-covid-19-beginning-with-fall-2021-semester/
I expect many people and organizations will face this question in the coming months:
https://www.shrm.org/ResourcesAndTools/hr-topics/organizational-and-employee-development/Pages/Ask-HR-Can-I-Get-Fired-for-Refusing-Vaccinations.aspx
The near real-time science debate on many COVID-related topics is striking. Dr. Bastian offers this interesting (but inconclusive) discussion of the clotting associated with the AZ vaccine has been getting play-by-play analysis.
https://twitter.com/hildabast/status/1380040809794347009
coupled with the risk-benefit discussion of the AZ vaccine, this all demonstrates how hard it is to make decisions in the face of high-stakes consequences and incomplete knowledge.
https://twitter.com/alex_freeman/status/1379808289278545922?s=20
Many European countries rely on the AZ vaccine. These data make their struggle even greater than U.S. hesitancy issues. (To be clear - the U.S. FDA has not approved the AZ vaccine for use.)
The Medical Letter offers a fantastic vaccine table, FYI
https://secure.medicalletter.org/w1621g
Infographic of the day: The Architecture of James Bond
https://www.homeadvisor.com/r/james-bond-architecture/
I suggest you use this opportunity to learn about Ian Fleming. He is a fascinating person who helped build the OSS (later called the CIA) during WWII and went on to write the James Bond books after his service:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Fleming
-----Bonus Round - Comparing News and News
I suspect the most typical reaction to the news about particle physics is not overwhelming excitement or titillation. This New York Times article caught my attention, though: "A Tiny Particle's Wobble Could Upend the Known Laws of Physics."
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/07/science/particle-physics-muon-fermilab-brookhaven.html
My internal dialog goes like this: "Questioning the known laws of physics? When do I get time machines and faster than light speed travel‽" Certainly, the New York Times article very much focuses on the possibility of new things to come. The report makes the Fermi Lab sound like the kind of place a pan-dimensional gate will materialize.
Then you run into a bit of a more hard-core science blog, and you find a much more constrained enthusiasm:
https://www.science20.com/hank_campbell/standard_model_rethink_does_measurement_of_muon_magnetics_mean_new_physics_are_coming-253851
It seems the sorting of true phenomenon vs. statistical anomaly is not yet clear. "The difference is 4.2 sigma, so there is a 1 in 40,000 chance that that the wobble is not magnetic, but statistical. More runs at Fermilab and other experiments and, honestly a lot more physicists looking at the methodology will clear it up either way."
Nothing too dramatic here, but the contrast struck me. Both articles discuss something I am interested in, but about which I have no strong opinion. It is a good reminder about the more nuanced way bias can creep into reporting. Either way, I am all for highlighting the value and importance of sound scientific work. Take a look at the comments associated with the NYT's article. They certainly generated a buzz.
Clean hands and sharp minds, team
Adam
PS Back on Monday, I'm in clinic tomorrow.
On mornings when I find more coffee on me than in me, I wonder if I missed the age at which I spilled least. My years of "peak beverage handling" were (clearly) somewhere less than age 46 and more than, say, age 3. At least as measured by spilling drinks on myself, I firmly believe I have passed the peak on a parabola of decrepitude. It is increasingly evident I qualify for an adult sippy cup.
-----Latest Data---
The case, death, and hospitalization data are more nuanced over the last few weeks. While hospitalizations are rising nationally (~ +5%), they appear driven by regional increasing case rates. Death rates are still falling, but we know deaths lag case rates by two weeks. More below on the segments of vaccinated individuals not contributing to these statistics.
CDC National Hospitalization trend data
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#hospitalizations
Global-View:
https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938
Nationally:
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&areasRegional=usco&cumulative=0&logScale=0&perMillion=1&values=casesf
The U.S. Regionally - N.Y. Times:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
Vaccine Tracker
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends
-----
The vaccine delivered so far has positively impacted some of the highest risk groups, making the data above a bit more confusing to interpret. Nevertheless, I sincerely hope we see a blunted 4th wave as a result.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/06/covid-19-cases-deaths-vaccinations-daily-update.html
and
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/546790-cdc-almost-80-percent-teachers-childcare-workers-received-at-least-one
Here is a pre-release, not peer-reviewed, paper looking at the 14-day county-level COVID-19 rates for counties that hosted NFL football games with and without fan attendance.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3805754
They found "counties where teams had 20,000 fans in attendance [had a] 2.23 times the rate of spikes in COVID-19 compared to all other teams."
and
"[T]he presence of fans at NFL home games during the 2020/2021 season led to increased levels of COVID-19 cases and rates both in the counties in which the venues are nested within, and the surrounding counties in which fans likely travel from to attend."
Mandatory vaccination requirements are grounded in precedent. I am not surprised to see a university require this.
https://news.nd.edu/news/notre-dame-to-require-students-to-be-vaccinated-for-covid-19-beginning-with-fall-2021-semester/
I expect many people and organizations will face this question in the coming months:
https://www.shrm.org/ResourcesAndTools/hr-topics/organizational-and-employee-development/Pages/Ask-HR-Can-I-Get-Fired-for-Refusing-Vaccinations.aspx
The near real-time science debate on many COVID-related topics is striking. Dr. Bastian offers this interesting (but inconclusive) discussion of the clotting associated with the AZ vaccine has been getting play-by-play analysis.
https://twitter.com/hildabast/status/1380040809794347009
coupled with the risk-benefit discussion of the AZ vaccine, this all demonstrates how hard it is to make decisions in the face of high-stakes consequences and incomplete knowledge.
https://twitter.com/alex_freeman/status/1379808289278545922?s=20
Many European countries rely on the AZ vaccine. These data make their struggle even greater than U.S. hesitancy issues. (To be clear - the U.S. FDA has not approved the AZ vaccine for use.)
The Medical Letter offers a fantastic vaccine table, FYI
https://secure.medicalletter.org/w1621g
Infographic of the day: The Architecture of James Bond
https://www.homeadvisor.com/r/james-bond-architecture/
I suggest you use this opportunity to learn about Ian Fleming. He is a fascinating person who helped build the OSS (later called the CIA) during WWII and went on to write the James Bond books after his service:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Fleming
-----Bonus Round - Comparing News and News
I suspect the most typical reaction to the news about particle physics is not overwhelming excitement or titillation. This New York Times article caught my attention, though: "A Tiny Particle's Wobble Could Upend the Known Laws of Physics."
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/07/science/particle-physics-muon-fermilab-brookhaven.html
My internal dialog goes like this: "Questioning the known laws of physics? When do I get time machines and faster than light speed travel‽" Certainly, the New York Times article very much focuses on the possibility of new things to come. The report makes the Fermi Lab sound like the kind of place a pan-dimensional gate will materialize.
Then you run into a bit of a more hard-core science blog, and you find a much more constrained enthusiasm:
https://www.science20.com/hank_campbell/standard_model_rethink_does_measurement_of_muon_magnetics_mean_new_physics_are_coming-253851
It seems the sorting of true phenomenon vs. statistical anomaly is not yet clear. "The difference is 4.2 sigma, so there is a 1 in 40,000 chance that that the wobble is not magnetic, but statistical. More runs at Fermilab and other experiments and, honestly a lot more physicists looking at the methodology will clear it up either way."
Nothing too dramatic here, but the contrast struck me. Both articles discuss something I am interested in, but about which I have no strong opinion. It is a good reminder about the more nuanced way bias can creep into reporting. Either way, I am all for highlighting the value and importance of sound scientific work. Take a look at the comments associated with the NYT's article. They certainly generated a buzz.
Clean hands and sharp minds, team
Adam
PS Back on Monday, I'm in clinic tomorrow.
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