Week of November 29, 2021
Abundant food, small gatherings, and a hurried tutorial on the Greek alphabet filled the holiday weekend with the harmonic convergence of Thanksgiving, Hannukah, and the Omicron variant (SARS-Cov2 variant B.1.1.529). The juxtaposition of sharing our Thanksgiving gratitudes at the table while my phone was pushing pandemic doom notifications was jarring. And you can't un-know the news. My family morphed into potential infectious vectors sometime between the turkey and the pie, thanks to news alerts. "Your pie crust is so flakey, but not as flakey as that unvaccinated second cousin. She needs to stay in the other room. And can we open a window?"
---- Latest Data
Case rates and Death rates were down this week. The magnitude of the decline may be due to low reporting through the holiday weekend. To be sure, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota are surging.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
and
https://theuscovidatlas.org/map?src=county_usfacts&var=Confirmed_Count_per_100K_Population&mthd=lisa&v=2
Country Comparison from FT.com
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=gbr&areas=rus&areas=rou&areas=lva&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usla&areasRegional=usnv&areasRegional=usar&areasRegional=usks&areasRegional=usmo&cumulative=0&logScale=1&per100K=1&startDate=2021-06-01&values=cases
The CDC Weekly Review of Data and Variant Tracking did not update last week.
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Twitter and the news alerts spent Thanksgiving Thursday reporting on what is now designated variant Omicron. It has been a confusing data set, with information coming in dribs and drabs through the weekend. While I commend the world's epidemiologists for their transparency, there are significant hurdles to making this understandable and actionable for mass consumption.
What happened:
Many countries and regions in the world sample a subset of COVID positive patient tests to monitor shifting genetic sequences in the SARS-CoV2 genome. Genomic monitoring labs in South Africa and Zimbabwe discovered a highly variant form of SARS-CoV2 that incorporated about 30 known and novel mutations. And, this variant (now known as Omicron) was spreading very quickly in some areas of South Africa, even more rapidly than the Delta variant.
About Genomic monitoring (from 6/2021)
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-coronavirus-variants-are-urgently-being-tracked-around-the-world/
Two infographics on the mutations in Omicron
https://twitter.com/mroliverbarnes/status/1464657113351868430?s=20
Here is a summary of what is known and why there is a global concern:
• In some areas of southern Africa, with low vaccination rates, this variant appears to be spreading quickly - implying that the mutations have conferred an advantage for increased transmissibility.
• While the mutations may confer the ability to infect even vaccinated individuals, it is unclear how much risk there is.
• We do not know if the Omicron variant causes more or less severe symptoms or illnesses requiring hospitalization. There are scattered case reports that vaccinated individuals with Omicron are having only mild symptoms. There are too few cases to know at this point - but time will tell.
• I strongly suspect Omicron is already all over the world. This virus moves quickly, and IF THE VIRUS IS ANYWHERE, IT IS EVERYWHERE.
• Masking in indoor settings, getting the booster, vaccinating, and ensuring good ventilation/air filtration are the best preventative measures we have.
• I suspect we will have more clarity on what the mutations of the Omicron variant mean in the next week or so. Be on the lookout for comments about transmissibility, immune or vaccine escape, variation in symptoms, and the likelihood of symptomatic illness, hospitalization, or death.
Dr. Faust offers the best roundup of Omicron data I have seen:
https://insidemedicine.bulletin.com/the-omicron-nu-covid-19-variant-here-s-what-we-know-and-what-we-don-t/
and
https://insidemedicine.bulletin.com/2996970673886380/
When it comes to Omicron, Twitter is a cesspool of speculation and observation, which feels like junk food for the mind at the moment.
Here is a fantastic reminder of how association vs. causation and confounding make digging into data crucial. It starts with this observation: "[The] death rate of 10-59-year-olds who have watched the 1984 Ghostbuster Movie is 2x higher than those who have watched the 2021 Ghostbuster movie". It loops back to vaccines, so stick with it.
https://twitter.com/jsm2334/status/1463232529327132680?s=10
In preparation for upcoming FDA advisory board discussions, data regarding Merck's antiviral COVID oral medications released on Friday demonstrated less efficacy than previously reported. I think this story got lost amongst the Omicron news and the holiday. This news dampens the possibility of an easy treatment soon.
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/merck-says-covid-19-pill-cuts-hospitalization-death-risk-by-30-2021-11-26/
Keep on the lookout for a data release on Paxlovid, Pfizer's combination oral antiviral COVID therapy.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/16/business/pfizer-covid-pill-paxlovid-unvaccinated.html
Infographics!
Still hoping that this is the Hannukah I will get my DeLorean with a flux capacitor.
https://www.velcrosuit.com/How-Time-Travel-Works
Things I learned this week.
DaVita colleagues, take note! Researchers are studying the correlation between hug satisfaction and hug variables: hug duration, arm-crossing style, gender, and existing hug-ee/hugger relationship. Here is the big takeaway: "Based on our findings, we advise using a 5 second crisscross hug to model a familiar and pleasant type of experience. Despite our finding that both 5 s and 10 s hugs are similarly pleasant, 5-second hugs might be preferable whenever researchers want to induce a common touch experience." I am adding "hug research participant" to my retirement plans.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0001691821001918?via%3Dihub
Of note, the authors cited a paper exploring the qualities needed to yield pleasurable robot hugs. I don't recall the part of the Terminator series when the self-aware Skynet robots emotionally support the remaining humans.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs12369-018-0495-2
I learned Rolling Stone has a politics section. And this week, in light of the JFK assassination anniversary (plus those waiting for the return of JFK), they published a piece about how disinformation campaigns (before Twitter) played a role in fostering the conspiracy theories.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/jfk-oliver-stone-conspiracy-theory-russian-disinformation-1260223/
There is an anti-leaf blower movement with various factions - from simple anti-fossil fuel/pro-electric to old-school Luddite rakers. I am not sure where this will land in history's long line of niche political agendas, but given the time I spend with my electric blower, I know where I stand.
https://biggreenpurse.com/as-communities-ban-leaf-blowers-homeowners-save-money-by-raking/
and
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/04/james-fallows-leaf-blower-ban/583210/
Clean hands and sharp minds, team
Adam
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