Week of December 13, 2021
I am about 3 hours into the 8+ hour Peter Jackson Beatles documentary Get Back. The intimate and candid footage is enlightening - by 1969, the band's songwriting process was shockingly non-linear, nearly chaotic. The documentary imparts lessons on the criticality of managing relationships, the struggle and iteration inherent to creativity, and the tradeoffs of success. Oddly, it reminds me of case-based business books and is a satisfying way to spend a low-key holiday weekend during a pandemic.
---- Latest Data
Seven-day rolling averages of new cases and death rates plateaued this week, but there is still a lot of regional variation. Hospitalizations are still increasing in areas of the U.S. Nevertheless, the current rates mean there are 120,000 new cases and 1200 deaths per day.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
and
https://theuscovidatlas.org/map?src=county_usfacts&var=Confirmed_Count_per_100K_Population&mthd=lisa&v=2
Country Comparison from FT.com
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=gbr&areas=rus&areas=rou&areas=lva&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usla&areasRegional=usnv&areasRegional=usar&areasRegional=usks&areasRegional=usmo&cumulative=0&logScale=1&per100K=1&startDate=2021-06-01&values=cases
The CDC Weekly Review of Data and Variant Tracking discusses the value of boosters.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
And, despite omicron discussion, as of the week of 11/29, Delta is still the most common variant in the United States, expecting that this will change in the coming weeks.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions
------------------
Pfizer data released this week indicated a significant drop in vaccine effectiveness (VE) against Omicron for avoiding symptomatic COVID infection; having a 3rd dose of the mRNA vaccine increased VE to ~ 75% - down by about 20% from protection against symptomatic illness with the Delta variant. Eric Topol covers the data and notes we do not yet have information on severe illness or death.
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1469739731525140480
Dr. Topol also offered a few tables summarizing what we know (so far) about Omicron. It is still a mixed bag of information with a lot of unknowns.
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1469429343000547329/photo/1
However, data is accumulating quickly:
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1469726652867375105
Multiple data points are indicating a significant loss of monoclonal antibody effectiveness against Omicron
https://twitter.com/camwolfe/status/1469367270422065155
and
https://twitter.com/jrarribas/status/1469587359650000908
and
https://covdb.stanford.edu/page/susceptibility-data/
We still do not know whether Omicron infection is, on average worse or milder than previous strains. As always, Dr. Jeremy Faust offers a thoughtful, in-depth review:
https://insidemedicine.bulletin.com/defcon-omicron-scientists-report-that-omicron-evades-antibodies-here-s-what-that-might-really-mean
Either way, boosters, masking with N95s, and minimizing social contacts are still our best defense. 16 and 17-year-olds will soon be able to get the booster - the FDA approved Pfizer boosters for this age group:
https://www.empr.com/home/news/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-booster-authorized-for-16-and-17-year-olds/
Researchers at Johns Hopkins and The University of Maryland published a large trial comparing rapid antigen testing to PCR testing in real-world conditions. They found that "the BinaxNOW rapid antigen COVID-19 test had a sensitivity of 87% in symptomatic and 71% asymptomatic individuals when performed by health care workers in a high-throughput setting." It is the largest trial to date, looking at the value of antigen tests.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34851137/
from the Baltimore Sun
https://www.baltimoresun.com/coronavirus/bs-hs-rapid-home-tests-study-20211208-av5wnodajrbm5en7ohzq2p2434-story.html
I suspect this antigen testing work will need to be confirmed with new variants, but early indications are Omicron infections are detectable. More broadly, remember antigen testing determines if someone has the virus in their respiratory system (and is contagious) - day -2 through +7 of symptomatic infection. PCR is confirmatory and persists for 3-6 months, even after one is no longer contagious. See:
https://media.nature.com/lw800/magazine-assets/d41586-020-02661-2/d41586-020-02661-2_18385362.png
from
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02661-2
Infographics!
Seattle intensivist Dr. Nick Mark published a fantastic one-pager about pulse oximetry. (It is part of his ICU One Pager guides.) Best not to wear darker nail polish if you require non-invasive oxygen monitoring.
https://twitter.com/OnePagerICU/status/1469683065895018499/photo/1
Things I learned this week.
Pantone has prospectively released THE color of 2022. Meet Very Peri, a periwinkle hue - Panton 17-3938 - a shade that "combines the steady tranquility of blue with an energetic infusion of red." I don't know what 2022 will hold, but hopefully, the balanced tension of tranquil blue and energetic red bodes well.
https://www.cnn.com/style/article/pantone-color-of-the-year-very-peri-2022/index.html
An anti-vax Italian healthcare worker attempted to use a silicone arm and torso to receive his mandatory vaccination. The phony arm did not fool the nurse. The man is in trouble. Adam learns male silicone arms and half-bodies are a thing.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59524527
and
https://www.amazon.com/Realistic-Artificial-Cosplayers-Halloween-Waterproof/dp/B094NQJD6V/ref=sr_1_6
Thanks to Atlas Obscura, I learned about Austria's Historic Porcelain Sanitary Objects museum. There needs to be a word to describe the sudden realization that one's toilet is mundane and inelegant.
https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/klo-so-museum-historic-sanitary-objects
Clean hands and sharp minds,
Adam
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