What Adam is reading 3-18-2020

Good morning.

 

There is a lot of anecdotal data floating around on social media.  Please keep in mind the logical fallacies and bias information (from 3/17 reading list).

 

Here some starting thoughts:

-Healthcare is complex and takes time to solve at scale.

-While some anecdotes can be true, there must be strong enough data to dedicate the resources to drive scalable solutions, and that takes time - good data means large samples and repeated experiments

-Unintended consequences, waste, and harm can result from attempting to deliver unproven or poorly understood solutions - that is one must consider the trade-offs of any choice (risk vs. benefit)

- And, most importantly, do not fall victim to the logical fallacy of false cause - the absence of an answer does not mean there is some sinister plot or deliberate omission.  Sometimes, things are hard and they suck.

 

OK here is what I have been mentally chewing on:

 

CMS changes the rules on physician telehealth.  Facetime and Skype for doctors appears to be supported (for the emergency):

https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/press-releases/president-trump-expands-telehealth-benefits-medicare-beneficiaries-during-covid-19-outbreak

 

 

Going old, old school with Lucretius (and The Nature of Things) - (Wikipedia Lucretius - pretty incredible Roman poet who probably wrote a lot, but we don't have a lot of Epicurean works - they were destroyed – and now you too can ponder all the lost human ideas and thoughts that are no longer available to appreciate )

 

https://www.newyorker.com/culture/culture-desk/invisible-bullets-what-lucretius-taught-us-about-pandemics

 

 

Data driving the discussion to wash your hands, socially distance, and do the best you can to wipe down your groceries/carry out containers

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973?query=featured_home

 

 

A great example of near real-time response to one physician making a public statement without good data – Do ACE inhibitors/ARBs enhance the possibility of COVID infection?  A public chat and aggregation of best thoughts (here is the cliff notes version – the good we know these medications do far outweighs the potential bad they might, theoretically convey – but read the summary at the end and look at your logical fallacies! )

http://www.nephjc.com/news/covidace2

 

 

Bonus round – Learn about amazing people who are not in the 1^st tier of history.

https://www.nytimes.com/1987/08/23/books/a-high-life-and-a-wild-one.html